For the time being, we will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
Cash Game Breakdown –The article you are currently reading.
Bullpen Coach – Full breakdown of everything you need to know about each teams bullpen.
Hitting Coach – A deep dive about the top hitters & fades for today’s MLB slate.
Pitching Coach – In-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
MLB Now Livestream – Daily video show breaking down the players, matchups & slate.
MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB Chat Room
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Benny Ricciardi) – 11am ET
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
The Opening Line –Corey Parson & Benny Ricciardi get you ready for today in sports
It’s been a week since I last did a DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown and I know that some of you have shown some anger toward me for doing so much on the football side of things lately. But, as I said in the chat room on Monday, I have always trimmed down my DFS MLB writing in late July to concentrate on building our NFL products. I told you all this in March, I told you in April and I’ve said it all of July. I have promised you guys that I will never, ever give you a half-assed effort in anything ever. This is why I don’t do NBA or NHL anymore. We have an amazing team here and we are serious about only putting the best people in the best spots to provide the best content for our customers. It has taken me almost three days now to get this one writeup together because I had a lot of catching up to do.
But there is an ace in my sleeve. As I mentioned in chat earlier this week, we are not subtracting from our DFS MLB coverage in August, we are adding. That’s right. We will be announcing a brand-new analyst here later this week and trust me when I say that this person is one of the best DFS MLB players and analysts going. We will never give up on you guys so stay tuned.
I should also mention that this Breakdown is only for the Main Slate which are the game that begin at 7pm EST and later. I know that there are eight early game today as well but the early slate is simply not my jam. What’s worse is that I didn’t schedule an Early Bird article today because I needed to give my boy Scott Bondar a breather. So, yeah be pissed at me for that and I will take all of the blame.
Tonight, we have a scattered set of pitchers to say the least. One thing that has been happening lately is the steady decline of starting pitchers. It feels like mid-September almost every night with all of the random starters we have to go through. But I hope that what I have been preaching all season long has rubbed off on ya’ll. We are not going to be paying anywhere near $10K for a starter tonight (or pretty much any night). We are going to attack the worst lineups and teams though with the best mid-tier or value arm that we can find.
There are three interleague games here tonight with the Royals losing the DH to play in Atlanta against the Braves, the Marlins gaining a DH once again against the White Sox and the cross-town rivalry with the Angels losing DH by playing in Dodger Stadium tonight. We also have a playoff preview with the Yankees in Minnesota to face the Twins in a game that featured over 25 runs last night.
Outside of the Yankees/Twins, there aren’t any real obvious spots to attack with the bats tonight. The Rockies are on the road against Patrick Corbin, the red hot Astros, Brewers and Red Sox are all playing early. So, we’re going to have to dig a little deeper in order to find the advantages tonight. My research has led me to a couple of shitty starters with shittier bullpens that are serving up the longball in bunches lately.
As I said earlier, this day has been over a week in the making for me. I am locked, loaded and ready to get that money here tonight.
Here is the DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown for Wednesday July 24th:
Surprisingly, there are no weather concerns anywhere tonight. Not even any winds that we need to be aware of.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
1) Atlanta Braves: -195
2) Los Angeles Dodgers: -190
3) New York Mets: -150
4) Washington Nationals: -140
5) Cleveland Indians: -135
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Atlanta Braves – 5.81
2) Los Angeles Dodgers – 5.48
3) Minnesota Twins – 5.30
4) New York Yankees – 5.20
5) Chicago White Sox – 4.88
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) San Diego Padres – 3.84
2) Los Angeles Angels – 4.02
3) Toronto Blue Jays – 4.04
4) Kansas City Royals – 4.19
5) Cleveland Indians – 4.46
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Name||Team||IP||ERA||BABIP||FIP||xFIP||SIERA||GB%||LD%||FB%||F-Strike%||Zone%||K%||SwStr%||Swing%||BB%||Contact%||O-Swing%||LOB%||Soft%||Med%||Hard%||HR/9||FA% (pfx)||vFA (pfx)||FA-Z (pfx)|
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1)Shane Bieber, RHP, Indians ($10,100/$10,500) –Having a favorite pitcher tonight is kind of like having a “favorite” port-o-potty late at night at a music festival at a county fairgrounds. Basically, you are going to have to pick your favorite poison and pray that the splash back is only minimal and doesn’t get into your eyes. Bieber has been a blessing for the Tribe single handedly saving this staff time and time again and getting them back into the pennant race. Over his last seven starts, Bieber is averaging a tremendous 45.2 FD points per start. Over the last month of starts he is 4-0, with 5 quality starts, 3.21 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 10.9 K/9. He has the best strikeout rate of any starter tonight at 31.1% as well. The Blue Jays have some pop but also own the worst BA (.233), fourth worst wOBA (.301) and sixth worst K% (24.3%) in MLB this season. Bieber struck out 9 Blue Jays in six innings earlier this season in a no-decision back on April 5th. He is as safe and with as much upside as any pitcher going tonight.
2) Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves ($8400/$8000) – The Braves are the biggest favorites on the board for a reason tonight and Teheran will very likely be the benefactor of this. So, we all know that Teheran is very up and down in his performances but there are very straightforward reasons behind this. He’s never been able to control left handed hitters mostly cause his changeup just never really developed. With most of his repertoire being hard stuff, left handed hitters sit on it and generate a lot of power against him. This season lefties are hitting .241 with a .353 OBP and .314 wOBA against him while righties are hitting .210 with a .296 OBP and .291 wOBA. The Royals feature just one regular LHH in their lineup in Alex Gordon though Nicky Lopez and Meibrys Viloria could be in there tonight. Kansas City loses the DH, have no desirable lefties and are huge underdogs in this matchup.
3) Reynoldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox ($7800/$7000) – Lopez has come out of the gate in the second half firing on all cylinders. He’s 1-0, 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP & 15 K’s in 13 IP since the All-Star Break. Lopez has shown sparks like this before, so I am not getting too excited just yet but he fact that these starts were again the A’s and Rays instill some confidence. He’s gained 1.5 MPH on his fastball and slider in these past two starts and is throwing more fourseam fastballs and less sliders. The Marlins are terrible, that is no secret so really we are just trying to prey upon them. It appears as though quite a bit of folks were on Dylan Covey last night which didn’t really work out. Lopez is throwing better than Covey right now and at a very affordable price shouldn’t hurt us that bad tonight.
4) Ross Stripling, RHP, Dodgers ($7000/$7500) – It isn’t often these days that you get a -200 favorite for near minimum price in DFS. His price is due to him being moved in and out of the rotation this season and his low pitch count since rejoining the rotation at the start of July. Stripling has faced some real tough competition in the Phillies, Red Sox, Padres and Diamondbacks in his four starts since moving from the bullpen and he has certainly held his own. Over his last two starts, he’s struck out 12 while surrendering zero walks and just three earned runs over 10 innings. The Angels lose the DH tonight and have been pretty cold lately hitting just .234 with a .296 wOBA over the last week. The Dodgers allowed Stripling to throw 85 pitches last time out and thus he will likely get to go 90 or even 95 tonight. The strikeout upside is not there against the Angels but he will be able to hold his own, pitch into the sixth inning, limit the damage and be in line for both the quality start and the win tonight.
5) Zac Gallen, RHP, Marlins ($6800/$7800) – Gallen is right on the fringe for me as far as the trust level is concerned. His pitch mix matches up well against the White Sox lineup with fastball/curveball/slider generating 11.4% swinging strike rate and 26.3% strikeout rate. Last night, Caleb Smith struck out 9 White Sox hitters in 7 innings while retiring the first 17 hitters he faced. Gallen is mostly in play on FD where $6800 allows us all the bats we could want. On DK, he is still fine but at $1K more, I’d likely only pair him with Shane Bieber for security sake.
1) SunTrust Park – 12.3% above average in runs, 17.2% above average in HR, 33.0% above average in 2B.
2) Guaranteed Rate Field – 14.8% above average in runs, 38.6% above average in HR.
3) PNC Park –14.5% above average in runs, 5.3% above average in HR, 29.4% above average in 2B, 56.2% above average in 3B.
4) Rogers Centre –3.2% above average in runs, 48.4% above average in HR, 26.2% above average in 3B.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies – .293 BAA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, 36.3% FB%, 21.0% HR/FB%, 2.27 HR/9, 43.1% hard contact rate.
2) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Cardinals – .261 BAA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 16.5% HR/FB%, 1.19 HR/9, 7.5% swinging strike rate, 41.7% hard contact rate.
3) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates – .257 BAA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 37.1% FB%, 15.7% HR/FB%, 1.45 HR/9, 36.4% hard contact rate.
4) Brad Keller, RHP, Royals – .247 BAA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 8.4% swinging strike rate, 36.0% hard contact rate.
5) Jaime Barria, RHP, Angels –.312 BAA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, 40.2% FB%, 14.6% HR/FB%, 1.64 HR/9, 37.5% hard contact rate.
6) Reynoldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox – .282 BAA, 5.41 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 45.4% FB%, 14.6% HR/FB%, 1.86 HR/9, 37.3% hard contact rate.
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Chris Iannetta, Gary Sanchez, Mitch Garver
1B – Daniel Murphy, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Lucas Duda, Josh Bell
2B – Ian Kinsler
3B – Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Colin Moran
SS – Trea Turner, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco
OF – Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson, Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler, Tyler Naquin, Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout
For More BvP info check out ourBvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Brian McCann, Braves
2) Mitch Garver, Twins
3) Chris Iannetta, Rockies
4) Matt Wieters, Cardinals
Notes: Brad Keller has given up 5 HR, 16 XBH ad 36 BB to LHH this year and has a .258/.363/.381 slash against LHH this season which greatly favors these Braves lefties including Brian McCann. Mitch Garver will leadoff again against the lefty J.A. Happ at Target Field where the Yankees and Twins scored 26 runs last night. Chris Iannetta always is strong against LHP owning a career .834 OPS against them. Matt Wieters owns a .500 wOBA, .364 BA with 2 HR over his last four games.
1) Freddie Freeman, Braves
2) Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees
3) Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
4) Pete Alonso, Mets
5) Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Notes: If there is a better hitter in MLB than Freddie Freeman, the list is certainly very short. Freeman has 9 hits over his last 5 games and is home against the gas can Brad Keller. Encarnacion is expensive now but shreds in Minnesota. E5 is 4-9 (.444) and a .545 OBP in this series and over his career hits .296/.412/.616 with 16 HR’s in 159 career AB’s at Target Field. Don’t look now but Goldie is starting to heat up finally homering in each of his last two games and driving in six runs.
1) Robinson Cano, Mets
2) Adam Frazier, Pirates
3) Brian Dozier, Nationals
4) Max Muncy, Dodgers
5) Starlin Castro, Marlins
Notes: This is a good position to pay down at here tonight. Robinson Cano went bananas last night hitting 3 homeruns against the Padres. Tonight he gets Dinelson Lamet who has given up a .348/.385/.565 slash to LHH this season. Frazier is really only good for cash games as he doesn’t have the 6+ impact that we would need more of in GPPs. Dozier is hitting .353 with a .380 wOBA over his last five games. Muncy is the one guy we would consider worth paying up for at 2B while Castro is dirt cheap and crushes at Guaranteed Rate Field to the tune of a .364/.410/.558 triple slash.
1) Anthony Rendon, Nationals
2) Jose Ramirez, Indians
3) Tommy Edman, Cardinals
4) Josh Donaldson, Braves
5) Miguel Sano, Twins
Notes: This is a loaded position here tonight but mostly one in which we will be paying up for. Rendon owns a crazy 1.075 OPS against LHP so far this season and would make a great mini stack with Trea Turner tonight. Jose Ramirez is stacking hits up day after day but owns a .464 wOBA and .272 ISO against sliders similar to velocity, break and zone as Marcus Stroman’s. Tommy Edman is just a grinder that gets on base and is still crazy cheap despite leading off every day for the Cardinals. Sano went yard twice last night and is a tremendous GPP play because of his massive power stroke.
1) Trea Turner, Nationals
2) Trevor Story, Rockies
3) Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres
4) Corey Seager, Dodgers
Notes: Turner hit for the cycle last night against this Rockies team and is in another great position tonight against Kyle Freeland. Trevor Story his hitting .391 with a .523 wOBA, 2 HR & 7 RBI over his last five games. Look for Fernando Tatis to steal multiple bases tonight against Noah Syndergaard who surrenders the third most stolen bases in MLB over the last two seasons. Corey Seager is the only inexpensive option but does provide us a middle of the lineup bat for a team projected to score the second most run tonight.
1) Aaron Judge, Yankees
2) Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
3) Nelson Cruz, Twins
4) Starling Marte, Pirates
5) Michael Conforto, Mets
6) AJ Pollock, Dodgers
7) Dominic Smith, Mets
8) Jose Martinez, Cardinals
9) Corey Dickerson, Pirates
10) Mike Tauchman, Yankees
Notes: It’s a good mix here on the outfield tonight. We want to get some pieces of this Yankees/Twins game and what better way to do that than to build around Aaron Jude and his amazing on base efforts. Cody Bellinger is in a tremendous situation against Jaime Barria and Nelson Cruz against a LHP is always in play. The value section here also offer us quite a bit of power and on base opportunities for very little salary.