MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE
FUCK IT….HERE IS MY LINEUP FOR TONIGHT…..GO AND WIN!!
Frankie Montas, Jake Cronenworth, Jed Lowrie, Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis JR, Trey Mancini, Ramon Laureano, Robbie Grossman.
If you make any changes, do so at 2B where Lowrie is just the best of an otherwise bad situation.
What a difference a week, or even a couple of days make. Last week I was writing to you after taking a day off of DFS MLB and in the middle of a down streak that had me frustrated and some of you teetering on the verge of being out of control.
Ahh, the good ole days.
While I know that all results do indeed vary, it is very safe to say that the results of both our content providers and our subs have improved greatly. It’s why I’ve been very pushy lately about the “keep going” philosophy. Too many of us are either not used to or don’t like dealing with adversity. Me? I fucking thrive in it. I love being challenged in any capacity whatsoever. Most people that know me know that I am most on edge when things are going well.
So, a five-game winning streak that includes a modest GPP cash has me feeling pretty good entering the new week. If I can ever get Ted to pay up for a star hitter every once in a while, I could get the blood pressure back down to a reasonable level. We are finally hitting our groove and while it was a little uneasy thinking there were 140+ slates left as of last Monday, now I am excited about it.
Now that we have withstood the lineup train run in cash games, it’s time to build your bankroll in order to take your shots in GPP as well. Jedi did a really nice writeup the other day discussing some advantages he is seeing in smaller slates as well as a tutorial on how to blend all of the content we have here on Elite Fantasy. Check it out here
Speaking of all the great content we have, let’s take a look at what is on tap today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
The Opening Line – Hosted by Frank Brank & Fried Egg Paulie
Lunch Money – Hosted by Claudia Bellofatto
Baseball Elite Podcast – Hosted by Kyle Elfrink & Ray Flowers
Oh and since we do not have our Bullpen Usage tool out yet (sad face) here is an updated breakdown of how many pitchers are in each MLB teams bullpen and how many lefty & righty arms they own.
|Boston Red Sox||8||6||2|
|Chicago White Sox||8||6||2|
|Kansas City Royals||10||9||1|
|Los Angeles Angels||8||6||2|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||10||7||3|
|New York Mets||10||9||1|
|New York Yankees||8||4||4|
|St. Louis Cardinals||9||7||2|
|San Diego Padres||9||8||1|
|San Francisco Giants||8||3||5|
|Tampa Bay Rays||8||6||2|
|Toronto Blue Jays||10||8||2|
It’s only a six-game slate and though that is less than ideal for cash games, there is plenty of meat on this bone tonight. As always, we are ignoring the early morning (here on the west coast) game between the Rays and Blue Jays as well as the early start Phillies/Marlins game that is not on the main slate on either DFS site.
The pitching is quite good tonight despite the lack of games. Although there are no true studs on the hill tonight, we’ve got two guys that have thrown no-hitters this year (Means & Turnbull) as well as two of the 1b group of studs in Brandon Woodruff and Blake Snell. Even Lance Lynn, Yusei Kikuchi and Frankie Montas possess a ton of upside as well as enough baseline to warrant consideration for cash games tonight.
Actually, the abundance of pitching creates quite a problem for us in the hitting department. In fact, just three of the top 12 hitting teams over the last week are going tonight and two of them have the most difficult pitching matchups. So, we have our work cut out for us in digging for the gold tonight. But that is really good news for us as the optimizers are all going to point to the Indians/Tigers game because of the slightly higher projected run total. Amateurs.
For me there is a pretty clear way to build our cash game lineups and a couple of very interesting GPP options that jump off of the page tonight. Let’s get to it!!
No weather issues today!!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
1) Oakland A’s: -155
2) Chicago Whitesox: -150
3) New York Mets: -125
4) Detroit Tigers: -115
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Detroit Tigers: 4.9
2) Baltimore Orioles: 4.89
3) Chicago Whitesox: 4.46
4) Oakland Athletics: 4.46
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) San Diego Padres: 3.12
2) Colorado Rockies: 3.15
3) Seattle Mariners: 3.62
4) St. Louis Cardinals: 3.69
Today's Pitchers Grid
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Frankie Montas, RHP, Athletics ($8400/$6200) – I have long been a mark for Montas’s repertoire. His blend of a high 90’s fourseamer combined with the mid-90’s sinker and high 80’s slider gives him a legitimate three put out pitches each time out. When his splitter is on, that makes four swing and miss offerings from him to choose from. His numbers a greatly skewed by two bad outings this season. His first start against the Dodgers in which he went just 2.2 innings and gave up seven earned runs and then his fourth start against the Twins in which he gave up six runs in just four inning against the Twins. Over his last five starts, Montas is 3-2 with a 3.49 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, a 1.30 WHIP and 25 K’s in 28.1 innings. That is 31.5 FD points per game which on this slate would do quite well. But against the Seattle Mariners, who have already been no-hit twice in the last 19 days, the upside is substantial. Seattle is dead last in batting average (.149), wOBA (.231), xwOBA (.288) and ISO (.088) over the last week. He is definitely going to be our SP2 on DK tonight at $6200 but the price on FD makes it a little more difficult on whether to fade the true aces tonight.
2) Blake Snell, LHP, Padres ($9300/$8900) – The problem with Snell all season has been his inability to last deep into games. He did last six innings last time out against the Rockies and threw “just” 97 pitches in the process. He has actually thrown 90+ pitches in three of his last four games after not doing so in any of his first five starts which is a very positive trend. Snell’s 33.0% strikeout rate is easily the best on the slate and his 12.8% swinging strike rate is behind only John Means and Brandon Woodruff. We aren’t going to pay $10K for Snell and fortunately we don’t have too tonight. When you factor in the affordable price and his opponent, it gives Snell the most upside of any pitcher on the six-game slate. The Brewers own the sixth worst average (.221), ninth worst wOBA (.296) and sixth worst strikeout rate (26.9%) against LHP this season. Brandon Woodruff is a very tough opponent but the way this Padres team is rolling, there is no way I am paying up for him tonight. This makes Snell the preferred high end target even in cash games tonight.
3) John Means, LHP, Orioles ($9100/$10,200) – After mowing down the AL West (A’s, Rangers & Mariners), Means has posted back-to-back mediocre performances but don’t let that throw you off of the scent. This is a guy who has transformed himself this year and not by any freak of luck new pitch or added velocity. Means is throwing 74.6% first strike this season and using fastball/changeup to keep hitters off balance. His 25.5% soft contact rate is best on this slate and sixth best in MLB entering play today. It’s fundamental baseball with a pitcher who is commanding his pitches and each quadrant of the plate this season. What I like here is attacking the Minnesota Twins. Sure, the Twinkies hit lefties well and beat up on the Indians over the weekend but this lineup without DH Nelson Cruz is nothing to be scared about. Josh Donaldson’s bat is slow, Miguel Sano’s HR streak is over, and the rest of the lineup are slap hitting pedestrians. I doubt he winds up in my cash game lineup on either site but if you want to be different on a six game slate, Means is likely your man.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Sam Hentges, Indians – .343 BAA, 5.57 xFIP, 4.89 SIERA, 2.09 WHIP, 44.2% FB%, 21.7% HR/FB%, 2.93 HR/9, 38.5% hard contact rate against, 8.2% swinging strike rate in 2021.
2) Matt Shoemaker, Twins – .261 BAA, 5.43 xFIP, 5.40 SIERA, 1.45 WHIP, 37.3% FB%, 20.0% HR/FB%, 2.25 HR/9 and 36.9% hard contact rate against in 2021.
3) David Peterson, Mets – .244 BAA, 26.1% HR/FB%, 1.42 HR/9, 32.3% hard contact rate, 63.4% LOB% against in 2021.
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Victor Caratini
1B – Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Olson
2B – Cesar Hernandez
3B – Jose Ramirez, Matt Chapman
SS – JP Crawford
OF – Jackie Bradley Jr, Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty, Mitch Haniger
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Sean Murphy, Athletics ($2500/$4600)
2) Yadier Molina, Cardinals ($2400/$4000)
3) Mitch Garver, Twins ($2400/$4800)
4) Tomas Nido, Mets ($2200/$3100) or James McCann, Mets ($2100/$3300)
Notes: Sean Murphy gets the Mariners pitching staff while hitting .353 with a .416 wOBA and 46.2% hard contact rate over his last five games. Molina caught Lance Lynn for six years and I love to use catchers against their former battery mate. Garver is a left masher who already has four HR’s against southpaws in 48 AB’s against them. The Mets are benching their $40 million catcher James McCann lately and could do so again tonight despite facing another lefty. Tomas Nido is hitting .412/.412/.706 over his last six games and is also hitting .333/.385/.667 against LHP in 2021. So, Mets backstops will suffice for their super affordable price this evening.
1) Jose Abreu, Whitesox ($3700/$5100)
2) C.J. Cron, Rockies ($2800/$4000)
3) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers ($2500/$3400)
4) Andrew Vaughn, Whitesox ($2300/$2200)
Notes: Two of the Whitesox first basement qualify for cash games tonight, one at each side of the salary grid. Abreu returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off. Andrew Vaughn is launching everything he comes into contact with and owns a 54.7% hard contact rate over his last seven games. C.J. Cron is better in Coors Field of course but he owns a .404 wOBA over his last six games and is a career .350/.435/.700 hitter at Citi Field in New York. Welcome back, Miguel Cabrera to cash game relevance as the Tigers own the highest expected total tonight and Miggy has six hits including two HR’s over his last four games.
1) Cesar Hernandez, Indians ($2700/$3900)
2) Tommy Edman, Cardinals ($2800/$4600)
3) Jed Lowrie, A’s ($2200/$4100)
4) Brendan Rodgers, Rockies ($2400/$2500)
Notes: What a miserable position here tonight. There is virtually no power options here so we have to attack the contact hitters that hit at the top of the order in lineups with high expected run totals. Cesar Hernandez has a .354 wOBA with 2 HR’s and also has three hits in nine career at bats against Spencer Turnbull. Jed Lowrie is swining well from the right side of the plate for a change and owns a .310/.347/.394 triple slash against southpaws so far this season. Brendan Rodgers has the best skill set of all 2B qualifiers tonight and is embarrassingly cheap on DK.
1) Jose Ramirez, Indians ($4000/$5800)
2) Kyle Seager, Mariners ($3000/$4200)
3) Matt Chapman, A’s ($2700/$4900)
4) Josh Fuentes, Rockies ($2400/$3300)
Notes: Jose Ramirez has one of the best skill sets of any hitter on this slate. He is 7-16 (.438) with 3 doubles and a triple in his career against Spencer Turnbull. Seager is the one Mariners hitter that worries be against Frankie Montas. Seager hits sinkers and splitfinger fastballs well (.386 career wOBA) and has been on base seven times over his last four games. Josh Fuentes has been doing his damage at home at Coors Field but we can’t ignore that he’s hitting .444 with a .515 wOBA with a .386 ISO over his last five games.
1) Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres ($4400/$6200)
2) Tim Anderson, Whitesox ($3400/$5900)
3) Francisco Lindor, Mets ($2900/$4900)
4) Edmundo Sosa, Cardinals ($2100/$3200)
Notes: If there is a more dangerous hitter in baseball than Fernando Tatis, nobody has yet to record them in any form. This guy is hitting pitches that should be unhittable out of the ballpark. Tatis is 15-23 (.652) with 4 HR, 4 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB, 14 RBI and 9 runs scored over his last six games. He is averaging an absolutely insane 36.5 FD points per game over those six games. I don’t know how we can logically use anybody else at SS tonight despite a seemingly tough matchup against Brandon Woodruff. Edmundo Sosa is an interesting player who is only 2B eligible on FD but does possess big power and run producing ability for an extremely cheap price.
1) Ramon Laureano, A’s ($3600/$5600)
2) Eddie Rosario, Indians ($2400/$3400)
3) Trey Mancini, Orioles ($4200/$5500)
4) Seth Brown, A’s ($2400/$3400)
5) Robbie Grossman, Tigers ($2900/$4700)
6) Mark Canha, A’s ($3300/$4800)
7) Anthony Santander, Orioles ($2500/$3300)
8) Mitch Haniger, Mariners ($3500/$4600)
Notes: Ramon Laureano has been a ball of fire over the last couple of weeks hitting .375/.429/.833 over his last seven games and .298/.346/.596 over the last 14 days. Laureano and Canha are a very good mini stack to target but monitor Canha’s status as he missed Sunday’s game with a sore elbow. Rosario has four hits in his last three games and should be hitting in front of Jose Ramirez again tonight which is another great mini stack target. Robbie Grossman is the hottest hitter nobody is talking about. Grossman is 8-19 (.421) with 1 HR, 2 2B and 2 BB over his last four games. He has also scored at least one run in six straight games. Grossman is also hitting .311/.418/.511 with 5 XBH in 45 AB’s against LHP this season.
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Frankie Montas, A’s ($8400)
1B – Seth Brown, A’s ($2400)
SS – Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres ($4400)
OF – Ramon Laureano, A’s ($3600)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
P – Frankie Montas, A’s ($6200)
SS – Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres ($6200)
OF – Seth Brown, A’s ($3400)
OF – Ramon Laureano, A’s ($5600)