Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
Although the weather in KC is looking better, it’s still a dangerous spot for SP in cash games. Hence I’m moving off Burnes and going to Jack Flaherty. You can use Max Scherzer if paying up and Charlie Morton (chalky) if paying down. To be honest, even Eflin/Rogers/Kershaw/Means are all cash game viable, but Flaherty/Scherzer are safest. Also, Dylan Moore is out of the lineup and on IL so take him out of your core. I’m personally replacing him with Max Muncy (also chalk). On the GPP front, playing mostly Yankees, Dodgers (both chalky) with some Mariners RHH’s (like Tom Murphy! – yuck, I know) and some Cardinals 1-5. Red Sox/Blue Jays is a game you may want to just full out stack.
Special treat as our Core 4 Livestream today will be hosted by Ricky Sanders and TheSeige. Phil Backert has the Cheat Sheet today and Ricky will handle the GPP article and be answering your questions in the VIP Chat for the hour before lineups lock.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Wednesday, May 19th
A very robust 12-game slate kicks off at 7:05pm ET with a Marlins/Phillies pitchers’ duel (Trevor Rogers vs. Zach Eflin) and the Rays/Orioles in Camden where the Rays opened the series with 13 runs last night. You won’t have issues finding starting pitchers to roster today as you’ll have a plethora of options with the highlights being: Corbin Burnes @ KC, Clayton Kershaw v ARI, Jack Flaherty v PIT and Max Scherzer @ CHC. We also get John Means v TB on this slate, just two games removed from his no-hitter. Shohei Ohtani is on the mound again facing a horrific Cleveland lineup that was no-hit not that long ago.
Finally, one of the late games is a battle between two SP we expect to be studs in this league. One of them (Tarik Skubal) is striking batters out at an above-average clip but has a home run problem. The other (Logan Gilbert) will be making his second career big league start. His first one ended up being a disappointment.
Not much concern on the weather front though there will be some light rain in Kansas City in the early innings. Looks like wind blowing out in Wrigley at around 13 mph for Nationals’ bats against Jake Arrieta and possibly even Cubs’ bats against Scherzer.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- St. Louis Cardinals: -208
- Milwaukee Brewers: -173
- Washington Nationals: -155
- Seattle Mariners: -139
- Los Angeles Angels: -134
Highest Run Expectancy
- Toronto Blue Jays: 5.2
- Boston Red Sox: 4.9
- Seattle Mariners: 4.6
- Houston Astros: 4.4
- Milwaukee Brewers: 4.3
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 2.9
- Kansas City Royals: 3.3
- Cleveland Indians: 3.6
- Miami Marlins: 3.9
- Detroit Tigers: 4.0
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1 – Corbin Burnes RH/Brewers ($10,300 DK, $10,500 FD)
How good is a pitcher when his horrendous offense is a -173 favorite on the road? Well, that’s what we get when Burnes is on the mound because hitters can’t seem to get to him. His numbers this year are video game-like (1.57 ERA, 1.25 xERA, 0.48 FIP, 58 K/BB). Yep, you read that right, 58 strikes to just one walk, which he issued in his last start. Burnes is off the chain right now with an obscene 45.3% strikeout rate and a 19.1% swinging-strike rate. These Royals bats don’t stand a chance. He’s the first guy I’m popping into lineups today.
2 – Max Scherzer RH/Nationals ($10,000 DK, $11,700 FD)
The first thing I’ll mention is he’s a better play on DK and I likely wouldn’t play him on my primary FD lineup where we can only play one SP since there are so many aces on the slate tonight. His numbers are fantastic, posting a 0.76 WHIP, 35.8% K, 4.2% BB, 15.9% SwK and only 12 runs allowed in eight starts where eight of those runs came on home runs. The Cubs whiff at a 26 percent rate this season against right-handed pitchers. Only concern would be if the wind is truly blowing out and MadMax lets some hits fly over the fence.
3 – Jack Flaherty RH/Cardinals ($9,700 DK, $10,800 FD)
The numbers don’t stand out in an eye-popping way like Burnes and Scherzer, but Flaherty has been an absolute ace this season with a 2.47 ERA (2.94 FIP), 0.95 WHIP, and holding opposing batters to a .187 average. He’s also been on quite a roll with the wins as he’s 7-0 in eight starts. Nothing better these days than a matchup with the Pirates, who are the league’s worst offense and still without their best hitter, Ke’Bryan Hayes.
4 – Trevor Rogers LH/Marlins ($9,400 DK, $9,700 FD)
The rookie is having an outstanding season with a miniscule 1.84 ERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate in eight starts. Not all of his matchups were particularly easy as he whiffed 10 Mets way back when their hitters were all healthy and also disposed of the Braves and Nationals. He has yet to face the Phillies, but they’ve struggled mightily against left-handed pitching and have the NL’s highest strikeout rate (nearly 30 percent) against pitchers of that handedness.
Shohei Ohtani RH/Angels ($7,400)
Ohtani has some control issues, walking nearly seven batters-per-nine, but otherwise has been spectacular, boasting a 2.10 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate in five starts this season. No reason to go here as your one-and-only on FD but certainly a SP2 to consider on DK since it’s this weak-ass Cleveland offense as the opponent.
Pitchers to Target Against
Tarik Skubal (LH/Tigers) vs. RHH: .425 wOBA, 18 ER, 12 BB, 11 HR (!) in 24.1 IP
Trevor Cahill (RH/Pirates) vs. LHH: .418 wOBA, .350 BAA, 1.98 HR/9, 5.25 FIP
Brad Keller (RH/Royals) vs. RHH: .419 wOBA, .359 BAA, 1.99 HR/9, 5.99 FIP
Hyeon-jong Yang (LH/Rangers) vs. RHH: small MLB sample but advantageous to RHH’s
Merrill Kelly (RH/Diamondbacks) vs. RHH/LHH: 1.46 WHIP, 5.24 ERA, tough matchup
Jake Arrieta (RH/Cubs) vs. LHH: Decent compared to rest but like LHH in Wrigley with wind
TARGETING STOLEN BASES
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|8||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||66||282||22||50||56||2||14.5||16.00||0.339||0.347||0.343||0.447||0.682||0.469||201|
|17||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||61||270||18||53||42||13||13.3||22.20||0.314||0.318||0.292||0.396||0.606||0.421||168|
|20||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||52||219||21||47||48||13||11.0||27.90||0.387||0.283||0.277||0.352||0.665||0.414||168|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – Yadier Molina (STL)
1B – Josh Bell (WAS), Paul Goldschmidt (STL), Daniel Vogelbach (MLW)
2B – Mike Brosseau (TB)
3B – Brian Anderson (MIA), Matt Duffy (CHC), Matt Carpenter (STL), Matt Chapman (OAK)
SS – Elvis Andrus (OAK), Miguel Rojas (MIA)
OF – Juan Soto (WAS), Andrew McCutchen (PHI), Adam Duvall (MIA), Ramon Laureano (OAK)
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
1 – Yadier Molina RH/Cardinals ($3,800 DK)
2 – Omar Narvaez LH/Brewers ($3,500 DK)
3 – Wilson Ramos RH/Tigers ($3,200 DK)
4 – Tom Murphy RH/Mariners ($2,500 DK)
Notes: No need to pay up for the position today with many of our top backstops facing tough SP and because we’d love to spend up for pitching in cash. Molina and Narvaez have both spent time on IL earlier in the season but are two of the better-hitting catchers. Molina has a .302 average and Narvaez is at .359. Ramos is another reasonable option facing the rookie Logan Gilbert in his second career start. Murphy really isn’t ever an ideal cash play but he’s dirt cheap and has a premier matchup facing a southpaw (Skubal) with a high home run allowed rate. Options noted above who you may also consider: Gary Sanchez / Kyle Higashioka.
1 – Luke Voit RH/Yankees ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)
2 – Max Muncy LH/Dodgers ($5,200 DK, $3,800 FD)
3 – Paul Goldschmidt RH/Cardinals ($4,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
4 – Josh Bell SW/Nationals ($3,500 DK, $3,400 FD)
5 – Daniel Vogelbach LH/Brewers ($3,000 DK, $2,500 FD)
Notes: Voit is back in action, smashed his first bomb in his latest start on Tuesday, and usually feasts on lefties. FD price is much too tempting. Muncy leads majors in walks and is hitting .343 with a 1.077 and 11.1 DK PPG over his last 10. Goldy is 4-for-6 with 4 RBI and 1 SB against Cahill. Bell has a .429 OBP in 28 career PA against Arrieta. Vogelbach has 3 HR in six career PA against Keller.
1 – Dylan Moore RH/Mariners ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD)
2 – Jazz Chisholm LH/Marlins ($4,800 DK, $3,200 FD)
3 – DJ LeMahieu RH/Yankees ($5,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
4 – Mike Brosseau RH/Rays ($3,400 DK, $2,000 FD)
5 – Kolten Wong LH/Brewers ($4,000 DK, $2,800 FD)
Notes: Moore isn’t a typical cash play because he’s bad at making contact and is hitting .168 this season. But he’s a power/speed stats accumulator. He has 2 HR and 2 SB in his last four and faces a lefty who serves up homers at the league’s highest rate. Chisholm is the Marlins’ leadoff man, smashed another bomb in yesterday’s game, and is incredibly dangerous at the plate. LeMahieu is warming up a bit at the plate but hasn’t gone into full DJL quite yet, but this matchup with lefty Yang could help him get there. Brosseau plays specifically when opposing lefties are on the mound and he just so happens to have 3 HR in 9 PA against Means. Wong’s value comes from being the leadoff guy and having Yelich back. Mid-range pricing on both sites and offers DFS point production via power and speed.
1 – Nolan Arenado RH/Cardinals ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)
2 – Gio Urshela RH/Yankees ($4,800 DK, $2,500 FD)
3 – Justin Turner RH/Dodgers ($4,800 DK, $2,700 FD)
4 – Jeimer Candelario SW/Tigers ($3,600 DK, $2,700 FD)
5 – Rafael Devers LH/Red Sox ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD)
Notes: Arenado is red-hot with 4 HR in his last four games and gets the nice home matchup against Cahill. Urshela gets prime lineup real estate and his price on FD is too low for a solid RH bat facing a lefty pitcher. Turner, we prefer against lefties, but fine with using him in cash against Kelly who he’s 3-for-4 against. Candelario is locked in at the plate. Not just in his past 10 days where he’s hitting .351 but really consistent since the beginning of last season. Devers the LH’er against Stripling the RH’er in Dunedin sounds like a dinger in the making.
1 – Trea Turner RH/Nationals ($6,000 DK, $4,300 FD)
2 – Xander Bogaerts RH/Red Sox ($5,900 DK, $3,400 FD)
3 – Francisco Lindor SW/Mets ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
4 – Gleyber Torres RH/Yankees ($3,900 DK, $2,700 FD)
5 – Gavin Lux LH/Dodgers ($3,300 DK, $2,800 FD)
Notes: Turner is a maniac. He’s hitting .405 with a .439 OBP and 3 HR over his last 10 games. Bogaerts is hitting .344 this season and always a cash game option unless he’s facing a true ace or is priced over 6k on DK (so we’re cutting it close today). Lindor finally broke out of his slump and has 2 HR and 3 SB over his past nine games. Only 3k on FD, great deal. Torres is expected back after being on Covid-IL, but his cheap FD tag makes him viable. Lux has 10 RBI in his last eight starts and smashed a grand slam last night. If I don’t pay up for Trea or Xander on DK, then I’m going all the way down to Lux.
Outfield (High and Mid-Range)
1 – Juan Soto LH/Nationals ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)
2 – Ronald Acuña Jr. RH/Braves ($6,200 DK, $4,400 FD)
3 – Christian Yelich LH/Brewers ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
4 – Mitch Haniger RH/Mariners ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)
5 – Aaron Judge RH/Yankees ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
6 – Kyle Schwarber LH/Nationals ($4,100 DK, $3,100 FD)
7 – Adolis Garcia RH/Rangers ($3,800 DK, $3,400 FD)
8 – Marcell Ozuna RH/Braves ($5,000 DK, $3,100 FD)
9 – Alex Verdugo LH/Red Sox ($3,800 DK, $2,900 FD)
10 – Ramon Laureano RH/Athletics ($4,600 DK, $3,400 FD)
Notes: You may notice some major omissions like Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, but it wouldn’t be right to recommend every expensive bat. Soto is my top guy worth paying up for, while Acuña Jr. is always a 1A option regardless of matchup, but David Peterson is proving to be a studly addition to this Mets rotation. Yelich is underpriced since he’s been out so long. Maybe it takes him a couple days to get back into the groove, but he did play in Triple-A the past week, so his bat isn’t completely stale. Haniger against the homer-prone second-year lefty is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Among the rest, I’ll point out that Schwarber is hitting .300 with 4 HR over his last 10, Rangers’ cleanup hitter Garcia is hitting .361 with 4 HR and 4 SB over his last 10, and Laureano is fresh off a 2-HR game.
Outfield (Value Plays)
1 – Kyle Tucker LH/Astros ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)
2 – Dylan Moore RH/Mariners ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD)
3 – Dylan Carlson SW/Cardinals ($2,900 DK, $2,500 FD)
4 – Ryan Mountcastle RH/Orioles ($3,400 DK, $2,500 FD)
5 – Matt Beaty LH/Dodgers ($3,400 DK, $2,100 FD)
6 – Kyle Lewis RH/Mariners ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD)
7 – Victor Robles RH/Nationals ($2,500 DK) – if you’re feeling lucky
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Corbin Burnes, MLW
1B – Luke Voit, NYY
3B – Gio Urshela, NYY
OF – Juan Soto, WAS
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Corbin Burnes, MLW
1B – Luke Voit, NYY
2B – Dylan Moore, SEA
OF – Juan Soto, WAS