Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
There are 10 games on the main slate for Saturday, which is the biggest we have seen on a Saturday this season. I will be in the chat at 6 EST to answer any questions and provide any updates on the slate.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Early Bird – A complete writeup of all the early slate MLB games by the man, Scott Bondar.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Saturday, May 15th
We have some weather to watch so could affect how we build our lineups. The main hitters that we will want to utilize are Reds hitters (assuming the weather cooperates), the Mariners and the Nationals. There is just one clear-cut ace on the slate, but we do have some nice mid-priced pitchers that we can use, as well.
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies – 50% chance of storms, so this will need to be monitored for timing.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox – Afternoon rain should clear out for no issues during the game.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No Odds on CIN/COL, ATL/MIL, PHI/TOR, though I would expect CIN and PHI to have two of the highest expected run totals, with ATL not that far behind.
- Chicago White Sox: -190
- Houston Astros: -180
- New York Yankees: -170
- San Diego Padres: -135
- Washington Nationals: -120
Highest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees – 5.04
- Houston Astros – 4.92
- Chicago White Sox – 4.63
- Washington Nationals – 4.55
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 4.45
Lowest Run Expectancy
- St. Louis Cardinals – 3.25
- Kansas City Royals – 3.37
- Texas Rangers – 3.58
- San Diego Padres – 3.75
- Seattle Mariners – .390
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Trevor Bauer – Dodgers (FD 11000 & DK 11000) – He has a 34.7% K rate and has been dominant at home in two starts for the Dodgers despite facing some of the toughest hitting teams in the league. The Marlins are bottom 8 in K% rate, ISO and wOBA vs. RHP. Bauer does not have quite the long leash he has seen in other stops but should still be good to throw 100+ pitches.
2) Domingo German – Yankees (FD 8200 & DK 7900) – It would be nice to see a higher pitch allowance but at this price tag, it is more tolerable. In the previous outing vs. the Orioles, German had 7 shutout innings with 6 K’s. The Orioles have the 8th lowest ISO, the lowest wOBA and the 7th lowest BB rate vs. RHP. This should help German get deeper into the game.
3) Carlos Rodon – White Sox (FD 11400 & DK 10000) – He has been fantastic so far this season, but there is a question mark about his back/hamstring injury for a guy who has struggled in the past with multiple injuries. Rodon has the best K% rate, best swinging strike rate and xFIP on any pitcher on the slate. KC has the 3rd lowest ISO and 6th worst wOBA vs. LHP. If not for the injury question, I would have Rodon right up there with Bauer.
4) Ian Anderson – Braves (FD 8900 & DK 9200) – He has the 3rd lowest xFIP and a respectable K% rate but is not a standpoint pitcher. The price tag is elevated a bit based on the match-up. The Brewers have the 2nd highest K% rate, 7th lowest ISO and 4th highest K% rate vs. RHP. The price tag is a bit higher than I would like. Anderson makes a solid play on the slate based on match-up alone. I just prefer others.
5) Luis Garcia – Astros (FD 7300 & DK 8400) – He has the 3rd best swinging strike rate and 5th best K% rate on the slate. The Rangers have the 2nd highest K% rate vs. RHP but have been respectable in ISO and wOBA. Garcia could give up some runs but definitely has strong strikeout upside. He has not given up more than 3 runs in any of his starts despite the occasional HRs allowed.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Rockies – 5.62 xFIP, 52.6% swinging strike rate, 12.3% K rate, 5% swinging strike rate, 12.3% BB rate, 2.19 HR/9, .456 wOBA vs. LHH, .400 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Tristan McKenzie, RHP, Indians – 5.12 xFIP, 24.5% line drive rate, 55.7% swinging strike rate, 20.8% BB rate, 42% Hard Contact, 1.90 HR/9, .430 wOBA vs. LHH
3) Diamondbacks Bullpen Game
4) Joe Ross, RHP, Nationals – 4.69 xFIP, 10.5% BB rate, 1.99 HR/9
5) Brett Anderson, LHP, Brewers – 25.3% line drive rate, 12.9% K rate, 3.3% swinging strike rate, .357 wOBA vs. LHH
6) Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners – .404 wOBA vs. LHH
7) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds – .405 wOBA vs. LHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|7||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||62||264||20||47||52||2||15.2||15.50||0.338||0.340||0.338||0.447||0.676||0.467||200|
|21||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||58||256||18||51||39||12||14.1||21.50||0.319||0.294||0.282||0.391||0.601||0.416||164|
|25||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||48||201||18||43||40||13||11.4||28.40||0.368||0.291||0.276||0.353||0.644||0.407||163|
Batter vs. Pitcher
2B – Whit Merrifield – Royals
OF – Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
For more, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Yermin Mercedes – White Sox (FD 3000 & DK 4200)
- Yasmani Grandal – White Sox (DK 4500)
- JT Realmuto – Phillies (DK 4600)
- William Contreras – Braves (DK 3400)
- Yan Gomes – Nationals (DK 3900)
Notes: Mercedes has a .532 wOBA vs. LHP and is a rare catcher who is even playable on FD. Grandal has a .529 wOBA vs. LHP, but I feel his upside might be slightly limited with all the walks he will take. JT is in a great hitting environment. Anderson has been decent, but the lack of ability to miss bats is going to be a problem, which should help Contreras. Gomes has a 4-hit night on Friday but feels a bit like chasing.
- Ryan Zimmerman – Nationals (FD 2300 & DK 4100)
- Josh Bell – Nationals (FD 3000 & DK 3500)
- Andrew Vaughn – White Sox (FD 2400)
- Connor Joe – Rockies (DK 2500)
- Nate Lowe – Rangers (FD 3100 & DK 4200)
Notes: A weird slate where the best plays are paydown options. Zimmerman can still hit but does not play that often. I love taking advantage of the Diamondbacks bullpen. Bell could be the other option for the Nationals. The rookie Vaughn is showing his potential with 2 HRs in his last 4 games. He is only on FD at 1B while Connor is a DK value. Lowe has a .431 wOBA vs. RHP while facing a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH.
- Josh Harrison – Nationals (FD 2900 & DK 3300)
- Max Muncy – Dodgers (FD 3700)
- Nick Madrigal – White Sox (FD 2400 & DK 2600)
- Garret Hampson – Rockies (FD 3000 & DK 4300)
- Nick Senzel – Reds (FD 3500 & DK 4000)
- Starlin Castro – Nationals (FD 2700)
Notes: Another list of names that I would not think would lead the rankings. Harrison hits 2nd against a garbage pitching staff along with having a good year so far this season. Madrigal has been towards the top of the order with all of the White Sox Injuries. Hampson has homered in the last two games, but I want to see him hitting lead-off again to be interested. Senzel is highly questionable or otherwise would be higher on the list. Castro is just proof that I am all-in on Nationals.
- Kyle Seager – Mariners (FD 3000 & DK 4400)
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds (FD 3800 & DK 5800)
- Jose Ramirez – Indians (FD 3600 & DK 5900)
- Justin Turner – Dodgers (FD 3500 & DK 5700)
- Austin Riley – Braves (FD 2400 & DK 4000)
- Josh Fuentes – Rockies (DK 2400)
Notes: McKenzie is awful vs. LHH, and Seager has a solid mid-tier price. Suarez has power, but the price is high, and the same so goes for Ramirez & Turner. Riley gives you a value option on FD against a pitcher due for regression. Fuentes is an extreme value on Draftkings.
- Trea Turner – Nationals (FD 3900 & DK 5900)
- Corey Seager – Dodgers (FD 3400 & DK 5600)
- JP Crawford – Mariners (FD 2200 & DK 3200)
- Dansby Swanson – Braves (FD 2500 & DK 4000)
- Amed Rosario – Indians (FD 2300 & DK 3500)
- Trevor Story – Rockies (FD 4100 & DK 6000)
Notes: Turner had a big Friday night, which would have been better if they did not rest him in a blowout. Seager should be productive against a Marlins pitching staff that will be extended beyond their limits after an Alcantara blow-up. Crawford has been hitting 5th as of late and faces a pitcher who is awful vs. LHH. Rosario is in play if hitting towards the top of the lineup.
- Bryce Harper – Phillies (FD 4200 & DK 5300)
- Juan Soto – Nationals (FD 4000 & FD 5600)
- Andrew Vaughn – White Sox (FD 2500 & DK 2300)
- Nick Castellanos – Reds (FD 4500 & DK 6300)
- Tyler Naquin – Reds (FD 3800 & DK 4900)
- Marcell Ozuna – Braves (FD 3200 & DK 4800)
- Jarred Kelenic – Mariners (FD 2200 & DK 2000)
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (FD 3900 & DK 5200)
- Adolis Garcia – Rangers (FD 3200 & DK 3300)
- Clint Frazier – Yankees (FD 2000 & DK 3100)
- Kyle Schwarber – Nationals (FD 3200 & DK 3600)
- Mookie Betts – Dodgers (FD 3800 & DK 5900)
- Franmil Reyes – Indians (FD 3100 & DK 4200)
- Joey Gallo – Rangers (FD 2800 & DK 3800)
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (FD 4400 & DK 6100)
Notes: Harper has the 5th best xwOBA on the season of all hitters. Soto did not do much last night, but the Diamondbacks pitching staff is horrific. Vaughn is a great value on both sites. Castellanos and Vaughn should get the worst pitcher on the slate. Ozuna matches up perfectly with Anderson’s favorite pitches. Kelenic is still min price on DK. Judge has 3 HRs in his last 4 games and 3 multi-hit games in his last 4. Garcia is too cheap on DK for his production. Frazier is another value option who will likely hit 5th against the O’s. Acuna is listed at the bottom as I do not expect him to play. I would bump him up if he does.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Trevor Bauer (11000)
1B/OF – Andrew Vaughn (2500)
SS – Trea Turner (3900)
2B – Josh Harrison (2900)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP 1 – Trevor Bauer (11000)
OF – Andrew Vaughn (2300)
2B – Josh Harrison (3300)
SS – Trea Turner (5900)