Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
Happy Friday!!! We have 13 games on the slate. I will be on the livestream at 6:05 EST to go through the Core 4, break down my favorite pitchers, and go through my top plays at each position.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Friday, May 14th
There is plenty of hitting available on this slate. The pitching is not very deep so you will have to decide between high-end pitching or the mid-tier guys who allow more expensive bats. I would love to find a cheap SP2 on DraftKings but it does not exist. The potential issue with the top-end pitching is either age or question marks on how long they will go in the game. We do have Coors Field on the slate with a guy who is struggling and another coming off an improbable no-hitter. Value will be helpful on this slate some updates will be provided as we get more lineup information. I did list several extreme values that we may have at Coors Field but with a few guys banged up, we do not know what lineup each team will throw out there.
Value Updates – Added value options Clint Frazier, Mitch Moreland, Michael Chavis, Robel Garcia, Jarred Kelenic
Oakland A’s @ Minnesota Twins – 30% chance of rain so something to watch but not concerning.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- Houston Astros: -210
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -200
- Washington Nationals: -195
- New York Yankees: -190
- San Diego Padres: -162
Highest Run Expectancy
- Toronto Blue Jays – 5.7
- Colorado Rockies – 5.3
- Cincinnati Reds – 5.2
- New York Yankees – 4.99
- Philadelphia Phillies – 4.80
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 3.10
- New York Mets – 3.18
- St. Louis Cardinals – 3.19
- Miami Marlins – 3.23
- Seattle Mariners – 3.40
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Rays (FD 10500 & DK 10900) – He does not go as deep into games as you would like, but the 39.5% K rate and a 16.8% swinging strike rate this season works. Those numbers are the best on the slate. Glasnow also does a great job at limiting line drives and hard contact, as well. The Mets are bottom 10 in wOBA and last in ISO vs. RHP. He has lowest prices of the big guns on FanDuel.
2) Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals (FD 12500 & DK 10700) – There have been two rough starts this year but he has been great in 5 of his 7 starts this season. Scherzer will give up some HRs but the limited amount of guys on base lessens damage. He has the 2nd highest K% rate and 2nd best swinging strike rate of any pitcher on the slate. The Diamondbacks are not a big strikeout team but lack any real dangerous hitters with some of their injuries. I do not think I can pay the price on FD.
3) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (FD 11000 & DK 10000) – You can throw out the one rough start for Kershaw as he has not allowed a run in 4 of his 8 starts. There is limited upside since you will not get more than 7 innings or double-digit strikeouts. The safety is there but we may need a little more than that at this price tag. The Marlins are just middle of the road against LHP and outside of Aguilar lack any dangerous bats.
4) Corey Kluber, RHP, Yankees (FD 8500 & DK 9100) – The Orioles are bottom 10 in K% rate and ISO vs. RHP along with being 2nd to last in wOBA. It was not a great start to the season but Kluber has been much better the last 3 starts allowing just 3 runs with 21 K’s. He did allow just 1 run over 6 2/3 innings in his previous start vs. Baltimore.
5) Aaron Civale, RHP, Indians (FD 8100 & DK 9300) – The Mariners are bottom 10 in K% rate and ISO vs. RHP. The strikeouts have not been great for Civale, but he has gone at least 5 innings in each start and has allowed less than 3 runs in all but one start. Civale is Top 5 on the slate in both groundball rate and first pitch strike rate.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers – 6.04 xFIP, 58.4% first pitch strikes, 12.8% BB rate, 36.6% Hard Contact rate, 3.33 HR/9, .440 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Drew Smyly, LHP, Braves – 5.45 xFIP, 19.6% K rate, 34.6% Hard contact rate, 3.24 HR/9, .430 wOBA vs. LHH, .372 wOBA vs. RHH
3) Johan Oviedo, RHP, Cardinals – 4.85 xFIP, 53.8% first pitch strikes, 11.5% BB rate, 48.6% Hard contact rates, 2.31 HR/9, .482 wOBA vs. LHH
4) Matt Shoemaker, RHP, Twins – 5.17 xFIP, 15.1% K rate, 2.25 HR/9, .431 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Riley Smith, RHP, Diamondbacks – 5.43 xFIP, 10.7% K rate, 6.6% Swinging strike rate, .364 wOBA vs. RHH
6) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Cubs – 4.84 xFIP, 51.9% first pitch strikes, 8.0% swinging strike rates, 35.1% Hard contact rate
7) Dean Kremer, RHP, Orioles – 26.3% LD rate, 55.3% first pitch strikes, 9.1% swinging strike rate, 2.08 HR/9, .399 wOBA vs. LHH
8) Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels – 2.08 HR/9, .365 wOBA vs. RHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
Batter vs. Pitcher
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals, Rhys Hoskins – Phillies
2B – Jean Segura – Phillies
SS – Didi Gregorius – Phillies
OF – Khris Davis – Rangers, Stephen Piscotty – A’s, Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals, David Peralta – Diamondbacks, Lorenzo Cain – Brewers, Bryce Harper – Phillies
For more, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Willson Contreras – Cubs (DK 5500)
- Manny Pina – Brewers (DK 3000)
- Mike Zunino – Rays (DK 4100)
- Jacob Nottingham – Brewers (DK 3200)
Notes: Contreras has been great vs. LHP and faces the worst starter on the slate along with a terrible bullpen but he will cost you. Both Pina and Nottingham are value options. Zunino has some of the best power at the catcher position. It is probably a position to find value but we will see how things look when lineups come out.
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays (FD 4000 & DK 5700)
- Matt Olson – A’s (FD 3200 & DK 4100)
- Jared Walsh – Angels (FD 3300 & DK 4700)
- Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (FD 3300 & DK 4100)
- Nate Lowe – Rangers (FD 3100 & FD 3800)
- Josh Fuentes – Rockies (FD 2500)
- Connor Joe – Rockies (DK 2200)
Notes: This is definitely a deep position. Vlad has been great at home with a .542 wOBA in Florida. Olson has a .400 wOBA vs. RHP and Shoemaker has been serving up plenty of homers. Walsh is the most under-appreciated hitter vs. RHP who is cheaper than he should be on FD but still playable on DK. Hoskins has been great vs. LHP. Lowe has a .443 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Fuentes is 1B only on FD while Joe is 1B on DK only.
- Garret Hampson – Rockies (FD 3000 & DK 4500)
- Mike Moustakas – Reds (FD 4000 & DK 4400)
- Jake Cronenworth – Padres (FD 2900 & DK 4000)
- Max Muncy – Dodgers (FD 3600 & DK 5400)
- Jose Altuve – Astros (FD 3900 & DK 5500)
- Nick Senzel – Reds (FD 3400 & DK 3800)
Notes: Hampson is too cheap on FD and Miley will struggle in Coors. Moustakas, who will benefit from Coors, is underpriced on DK. Cronenworth has been one of the hottest hitting 2B over the last week. A little more aggression at the plate for Muncy would be helpful but he has been walking a ton which shows great plate discipline. A better play on 2B on FD. Altuve is a good hitter but concerned about paying that much for a guy with limited power. Senzel and Moustakas are both questionable to play.
- Kris Bryant – Cubs (FD 4200 & DK 6000)
- Alex Bregman – Astros (FD 3800 & DK 5700)
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox (FD 3900 & DK 6000)
- Josh Fuentes – Rockies (DK 2400)
- Manny Machado – Padres (FD 3300 & DK 5300)
- Gio Urshela – Yankees (FD 2600 & DK 4700)
Notes: This is a tough position. Bryant is great vs. LHP, playing for a contract, and faces a terrible pitcher. He is questionable after getting hit on the wrist on Wednesday. Bregman and Devers are both great hitters that do not come cheap. Machado is very playable on FD. Urshela is the best FD value with Fuentes stupid cheap on DK.
- Trea Turner – Nationals (FD 4000 & DK 5800)
- Trevor Story – Rockies (FD 4300 & DK 6000)
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (FD 3300 & DK 5900)
- Carlos Correa – Astros (FD 3300 & DK 4700)
- Dansby Swanson – Braves (FD 2500 & DK 3700)
Notes: All of the Top 3 are particularly good. Bogaerts gives you the best price on FD where they refuse to raise his price. Turner comes at a slight discount from Story. Correa is over 1k cheaper on DK against the awful Rangers pitching staff. Swanson is nothing special but best value option who does have some power.
- Mike Trout – Angels (FD 4400 & DK 6200)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays (FD 3300 & DK 3800)
- Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays (FD 2800 & DK 4000)
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (FD 3300 & DK 4900)
- Giancarlo Stanton – Yankees (FD 3600 & DK 5800)
- Jesse Winker – Reds (FD 4600 & DK 5600)
- Randy Arozarena – Rays (FD 3100 & DK 5000)
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (FD 4100 & DK 5500)
- Juan Soto – Nationals (FD 4100 & DK 5400)
- Tyrone Taylor – Brewers (FD 2300 & DK 2200)
- Adolis Garcia – Rangers (FD 3300 & DK 3200)
- Joey Gallo – Rangers (FD 2800 & DK 3700)
- Connor Joe – Rockies (FD 2500)
- Nick Senzel – Reds (FD 3400 & DK 3800)
- Nick Castellanos – Reds (FD 4500 & DK 6300)
- Shogo Akiyama – Reds (FD 2500 & DK 2200)
Notes: There are several teams in great spots. The Blue Jays have been smashing in Florida. The Yankees get the O’s pitching staff. Arozarena is best left as an FD-only play. Taylor, Garcia, Senzel and Akiyama are too cheap on DK. Gallo is too cheap on both sites against a struggling Greinke. Joe is a good value if he hits 2nd again on Friday.
DFS MLB Core 4
These will likely be updated as we get more lineup information, but going to start with value for now.
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Tyler Glasnow (10500)
2B – Garrett Hampson (3000)
SS – Xander Bogaerts (3300)
OF – Connor Joe (2500)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Tyler Glasnow (10900)
1B – Connor Joe (2200)
2B – Garrett Hampson (4500)
OF – Teoscar Hernandez (3800)