Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
This article covers the main slate of six games on Saturday night. Brian Healy will handle the GPP coverage of the main slate. Scott Bondar has the Early Bird article for afternoon games. Ben Hancock will have the livestream. I will be in the Chat before the nighttime slate, as well.
No real changes. Everything is as expected.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Early Bird – A complete writeup of all the early slate MLB games by the man, Scott Bondar.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Saturday, May 1st
We have six games on the main slate. Normally, I would go deeper on the starting pitcher options, but I only see three that I would trust in Cash games. You could go Blake Snell (but he rarely finishes six innings), or Brandon Woodruff (he has a tough match-up) in your GPP’s. One thing that has become clear in the first month of the season is that Blue Jays playing at home in a minor league ballpark tend to have the highest over/under on the slate. Toronto is going to go with a bullpen game tonight, and the Braves should be able to score some runs, but they do not come cheap. I will be in the chat about one hour before lock to help build lineups.
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers – There is rain expected most of the day, so the roof will be closed.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No odds on ATL/TOR with TOR pitching technically undetermined, though it will likely be a bullpen game.
- Boston Red Sox: -175
- Arizona Diamondbacks: -175
- San Diego Padres: -160
- Los Angeles Angels: -130
Highest Run Expectancy
- Atlanta Braves – ????
- Boston Red Sox – 4.79
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 4.63
- Los Angeles Angels – 4.51
Lowest Run Expectancy
- San Francisco Giants – 3.07
- Colorado Rockies – 3.37
- Milwaukee Brewers – 3.43
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 3.57
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Zac Gallen, RHP, Diamondbacks (FD 9000 & DK 8900) – The Rockies are last in wOBA and ISO along with the 8th highest K% rate in road games this season. They cannot hit on the road. Gallen is strong in almost all pitching metrics except pitches per opposing hitters plate appearance. He tends to struggle with racking up high pitch counts, which limits how deep that he lasts in games. The good news: the Rockies are last in pitches per plate appearance, so that should get him through six innings.
2) Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers (FD 9700 & DK 9800) – The Brewers are 5th in K% rate, 20th in ISO and 27th in wOBA vs. RHP. They are also still missing Yelich, and maybe the strikeout machine Keston Hiura returns to the lineup, which only helps. May has increased his K% rate to 37.2 this season and has a 1.66 xFIP. He is neck and neck with Gallen as the top pitcher on the slate.
3) Eduardo Rodriquez, LHP, Red Sox (FD 9500 & DK 8700) – The Rangers surprisingly only rank 12th in K% rate vs. LHP but sit 29th in ISO (probably last by a long shot without Solak & Gallo) and 28th in wOBA. Rodriguez has the second-lowest xFIP of any of the starters on the slate. He was a bit limited on his pitch count to start the season but has been allowed to throw more each time out, so that should not be a concern.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Rangers – 5.72 xFIP since last season, 7.6% Swinging Strike Rate, 2.09 HR/9, .345 wOBA vs. LHH, .390 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.25 xFIP this season
2) Austin Gomber, LHP, Rockies – 4.93 xFIP since last season, 9.0% Swinging Strike Rate, 5.15 xFIP this season
3) Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels – 4.59 xFIP since last season, 1.77 HR/9, .370 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Ljay Newsome, RHP, Mariners – .442 wOBA vs. LHH, 1.71 HR/9
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
Batter vs. Pitcher
2B – Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays
SS – Fernando Tatis – Padres (limited ABs), Corey Seager – Dodgers (limited ABs)
OF – Charlie Blackmon – Rockies, Raimel Tapia – Rockies, Joey Gallo – Rangers (limited ABs)
For more BvP info, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Carson Kelly – Diamondbacks (FD 3700 & DK 4500)
- Buster Posey – Giants (DK 4700)
- Omar Narvaez – Brewers (DK 4100)
- Kevin Plawecki – Red Sox (DK 3100)
- Tom Murphy – Mariners (DK 2600)
Notes: Kelly has been a monster vs. LHP and led-off in their last game vs. a LHP. He is actually in play on FD with C/1B position lacking many options. Posey and Narvaez do not have easy matchups but have done well vs. the handedness of the starter they are facing. Plawecki and Murphy are punt options who take on bad pitchers. It is probably best to just play Kelly on DK.
- Jared Walsh – Angels (FD 3500 & DK 4300)
- Freddie Freeman – Braves (FD 4100 & DK 5700)
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays (FD 4000 & DK 5600)
- Wilmer Flores – Giants (FD 2400 & DK 3900)
Notes: This is an unusual slate where the options at 1B do not run very deep. Walsh is the top per-dollar play at the position, with Freeman and Guerrero both being expensive. I do not mind either if you can afford, but they are not easy to fit into lineups. Walsh has been one of the best hitters in baseball vs. RHP since last season. I listed Flores as a value option on FD but quite honestly would only use him in a rare circumstance.
- Ty France – Mariners (FD 3100 & DK 4200)
- Nick Solak – Rangers (FD 3400 & DK 4700)
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks (FD 3400 & DK 4800)
- Christian Arroyo – Red Sox (FD 2200 & DK 2700)
Notes: France has been very productive this season, but playing for Seattle has kept his ownership down along with his price. He faces Canning, who has struggled vs. RHH. Solak has crushed LHP this season but does not have the best match-up. Escobar has a better match-up and has crushed LHP this season, but historical numbers say that will regress. Arroyo hit lead-off on Friday, and while not spectacular, he did reach base twice and the team won. Kike Hernandez is not a good lead-off man, so maybe Arroyo gets another chance. That puts him in play if that is the case.
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox (FD 3700 & DK 5300)
- Kyle Seager – Mariners (FD 3200 & DK 4300)
- Evan Longoria – Giants (FD 2900 & DK 3600)
- Austin Riley – Braves (FD 2500 & DK 4200)
Notes: Devers faces the worst pitcher on the slate. He has rebounded after a slow first week. Seager has 8 XBHs in his last eight games and comes a bit cheaper than Devers. Longoria is destroying LHP this season. Riley has a .553 wOBA over the last week and has really improved his strikeout rate this season, which is a great sign for a guy with natural power.
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (FD 3300 & DK 5400)
- Fernando Tatis – Padres (FD 4400 & DK 5900)
- Corey Seager – Dodgers (FD 3600 & DK 4900)
- Nick Ahmed – Diamondbacks (FD2100 & DK 3300)
Notes: Bogaerts’ price on FD continues to be lower than it should. Tatis has the most upside on the slate but comes at the highest cost. Seager does not have a good match-up but is always in play vs. RHP. Ahmed is not a great option, but it is a value play.
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (FD 4200 & DK 5500)
- Mike Trout – Angels (FD 4500 & DK 6200)
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (FD 4300 & DK 6000)
- Alex Verdugo – Red Sox (FD 3200 & DK 4700)
- Mitch Haniger – Mariners (FD 3200 & DK 3800)
- Shohei Ohtani – Angels (FD 4100 & DK 5300)
- Kyle Lewis – Mariners (FD 2900 & DK 3400)
- Joey Gallo – Rangers (FD 2800 & DK 3600)
- Marcell Ozuna – Braves (FD 3300 & DK 5300)
- Darin Ruf – Giants (FD 2400 & DK 2900)
- Austin Slater – Giants (FD 2600 & DK 3300)
- George Springer – Blue Jays (FD 3800 & DK 4600)
- Mookie Betts – Dodgers (FD 4000 & DK 5600)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays (FD 2600 & DK 4100)
Notes: JD had a monster game last night, but some concern the Rangers will avoid pitching to him as they did on Thursday. Trout loves to hit in Seattle. Acuna is going to be popular and always carries tremendous upside. Verdugo is a better play on FD and has been great vs. RHP. Haniger has a solid price on DK leading off. Lewis is another DK value. Gallo is cheap on both sites, considering his HR ability. Ozuna is heating up and is playable on both sites but more attractive on FD. Ruf and Slater are both great vs. LHP and give you value options. Springer’s price is only going to go up on DK. Hernandez is a FD value who will likely hit clean-up in a powerful Blue Jays lineup. I will look to add on extreme value updates as we get lineups tomorrow.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Zac Gallen – Diamondbacks (9000)
1B – Jared Walsh – Angels (3500)
2B – Ty France – Mariners (3100)
OF – Darin Ruf – Giants (2400)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Zac Gallen – Diamondbacks (8900)
1B – Jared Walsh – Angels (4300)
2B – Ty France – Marines (4200)
OF – Darin Ruf – Giants (2900)