Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
I got the second and final dose of my Covid-19 vaccine tonight. I am not telling you that to brag, trigger your political response system or start another stupid internet researched fueled argument about medicine, science or anything else. Rather, I tell you this because I have no idea whether this dose will knock me out the way it has some others over the past few months. If for some reason you see that my social media goes dark, Ray Flowers is hosting the Elite Sports Show on SiriusXM, and Ted Schuster is updating this article, that will be why.
Let’s face it though. If growing up on the south side of Chicago, DFS Twitter and even cancer cannot take me out, what are the odds a stupid vial of government-issued microchips can? Yeah, exactly. In fact, as of this writing (four hours after receiving the vaccine), I am feeling kind of motivated. I mean, we’ve fought our way out of an early slump last week to rattle off a four-game win streak before last night’s let down by Lucas Giolito. We’ve got our swagger back, stomping out the lineup optimizers and building up our bankroll.
So, what is motivating me you ask? I kind of want to win a lot of money tonight. Like, not just count stacks like we do two-thirds of the time, but really swing for a big windfall on this Wednesday night. Maybe I am feeling this way because this will be my last DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown this week since I am on full NFL Draft coverage starting tomorrow. Maybe it is because I keep seeing these fucking awful, and I do mean AWFUL, lineups splashed all over our cash game contests, like shit on the walls of a gas station bathroom. Or maybe it’s because I am full of a random mix of chemicals that has altered my brain wiring. Who knows?
I am going to do my best to give us everything we need to build the responsible quality lineups you have come to expect from me and the team here at Elite. But as I sit here, late on a Tuesday night that has become Wednesday morning, I really want to make a statement. I really want to build a smash lineup so good that the screenshot of which cyber butt fucks every single artificial lineup optimizer in our industry. OK, so maybe I am getting loopy now…lol.
A reminder of all the great content we are producing here on Elite Fantasy. Please note that there is no Early Bird today since it’s only a three-game slate.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Wednesday, April 28th
Alright Jeff, so you want to win big money tonight. That is all well and good, but how are you planning on enacting that? I am glad that you asked.
This breakdown will look very similar to what you are used to. Boring, predictable, yet effective. The difference is going to come in the players that we settle on for the Core 4 and ultimately our entire DFS MLB lineup tonight.
The top pitchers tonight are clearly Carlos Rodon, if you believe in this breakout, and Tyler Glasnow even against a dangerous Oakland lineup. But are either of them worth sacrificing our bats to the point we have to use more terrible Yankees, Orioles or Cubs bats? Blah.
But, if we pay up for bats, which should we be targeting? The Nationals/Blue Jays and the Angels/Rangers games are definitely worth our interest with some of the best and hottest bats in MLB. Well, duh, Mans; we all know that! So, how are we planning to be different?
Well, that is going to be the key. I’ve got some big ideas here that are going to be clearly different from what the rest of the world is doing. No, I am not breaking tradition and using trash players with “upside” just to be different. But, we are going to attack a couple of places (pitchers) who some people hold in much higher regard than what the numbers suggest.
Every now and then, you have to step up in class and take your cuts. I am willing to lay in wait for a long, long time. Some people confuse this with being passive or timid. But every now and then, we have to come out of the shadows and remind these mother fuckers just who we are and what we do. We are ELITE, and we WIN.
Go get some.
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals – This game is doomed. It will be raining all day in St. Louis, and MLB believes rain comes from the devil. So, I am setting the over/under on the postponement of this game at 10:13am local time in St. Louis.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers – There will be rain in Arlington tonight, so the dome will be closed. Early indications are that a closed dome in Texas causes the ball to cut through the air better. Good for both of these offenses.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox – Another venue where it will be raining early on in the day, but in Chicago, that rain should clear up well before gametime. Guaranteed Rate Field has excellent drainage in place, so as long as Rob Manfred’s tampon doesn’t fall out, this game should be good to go tonight.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- Chicago White Sox: -210
- Houston Astros: -200
- Toronto Blue Jays: -175
- New York Yankees: -170
- Tampa Bay Rays: -165
Highest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees: 5.35
- Houston Astros: 5.13
- Toronto Blue Jays: 5.09
- San Diego Padres: 4.99
- Chicago White Sox: 4.85
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Detroit Tigers: 3.15
- Colorado Rockies: 3.22
- Oakland A’s: 3.29
- Seattle Mariners: 3.37
- San Francisco Giants: 3.78
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Rays ($10,800/$10,300) – Glasnow is the best starting pitcher going tonight. The big righty has allowed just a .131 batting average and .232 wOBA against. Glasnow’s 39.7% strikeout rate is by far the best on the slate, and his 16.0% swinging strike rate is top eight in the league right now. The A’s are a dangerous lineup but have scored just six runs over their last three games and have a strikeout rate of 24.3%, 11th worst in MLB. He’s surprisingly not the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel tonight and comes in just under what the other aces of this week have, salary-wise.
2) Carlos Rodon, LHP, White Sox ($11,000/$9800) – Rodon has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, posting a 0.47 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 16.2% swinging strike rate. It’s well documented that Rodon came into 2021 in the best shape of his life and has spiked velocity, which is playing his fastball way up. The problem that I have is that two of Rodon’s three starts have come against the Indians, while the other outing was against the Mariners. Outside of his complete-game no-hitter, he’s only lasted five innings in the other two starts. He also has walked eight batters in those two non no-hitters. The White Sox are the biggest favorites tonight, and their lineup should be able to beat up on Casey Mize. The Tigers aren’t much of a threat, but this is a lot of salary to risk on a three-start turnaround here tonight.
3) Zack Greinke, RHP, Astros ($9000/$9400) – Greinke isn’t the high strikeout arm that he used to be, but he is shaping into a high-quality volume starter who comes in underpriced. He is fifth in MLB in innings pitched, 22nd in ERA (2.76), 29th in WHIP (1.10) and has 22 strikeouts so far this season. The Mariners have started the season better than many of us projected but have started to fall off dramatically of late. Seattle has scored just five runs in their last three games and has struck out 26.2% of the time on the season. This is a very safe arm to build around tonight.
4) German Marquez, RHP, Rockies ($8200/$7500) – Marquez is incredibly overrated in the DFS community for reasons that scientists will uncover years after we are all gone. I will never use him at Coors Field, no matter what price they give him to us, but fortunately, he is in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball tonight. The Giants have beat the hell out of Marquez over his career, but I am willing to take a bit of a risk here because of a few very encouraging developments. Marquez has been good against LHH this season mostly because of increased curveball usage against them that has produced a 50.9% whiff rate and 1.65 xwOBA. Marquez has gotten squeezed in a couple of his starts as evidenced by his lower than average 22.8% strikeout rate but 12.8% swinging strike rate. He does have a 56.9% first strike rate so far, which should continue to build as he gets corrected on some of those calls. The Giants have gotten to Rockies pitching in each of the first two games of this series, and that has forced the Colorado bullpen to throw 10.2 innings over the last two nights. Marquez will give us six plus with at least six strikeouts for a lower mid-tier price tonight.
5) Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($7300/$7400) – German was dominating during Spring Training, striking out 17 in just 13 innings while allowing just two earned runs. He earned himself a spot in the Yankees rotation as a result but started the season poorly, giving up seven earned runs in his first two outings. But he corrected himself against the Indians, hurling six innings of six strikeouts and two earned runs to get his first win of the season. These Orioles bats are not impressive and strike out the fifth most in MLB this season.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Casey Mize, Tigers – .284 BAA, 4.70 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27.8% HR/FB%, 2.18 HR/9, 8.0% swinging strike rate in 2021.
2) Vincent Velasquez, Phillies – .258 BAA, 4.95 xFIP, 5.12 SIERA, 2.13 WHIP, 44.4% FB%, 25.0% HR/FB%, 2.25 HR/9 in 2021.
3) Taylor Widener, Diamondbacks – .236 BAA, 4.75 xFIP, 4.51 SIERA, 46.2% FB%, 13.3% HR/FB%, 1.61 HR/9, 47.1% hard contact rate against, 9.8% swinging strike rate in 2021.
4) Kyle Hendricks, Cubs – .276 BAA, 4.78 xFIP, 4.55 SIERA, 1.53 WHIP, 38.6% FB%, 31.8% HR/FB%, 3.32 HR/9, 8.6% swinging strike rate in 2021.
5) Erick Fedde, Nationals – .262 BAA, 4.33 xFIP, 4.25 SIERA, 1.53 WHIP, 34.1% FB%, 59.6% medium contact, 30.6% hard contact rate in 2021.
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|14||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||35||153||12||33||24||6||12.4||15.00||0.349||0.281||0.302||0.399||0.651||0.439||176|
|17||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||37||159||9||26||27||1||17.0||16.40||0.256||0.330||0.310||0.440||0.566||0.430||180|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – Yan Gomes, Travis d’Arnaud, Willson Contreras, Buster Posey
1B – Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt
2B – Joe Panik, Starlin Castro, Ozzie Albies, Jonathan Schoop, Ty France, Tommy La Stella
3B – Josh Harrison, Kyle Seager, Josh Fuentes
SS – Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford, Trevor Story
OF – Trey Mancini, Marcell Ozuna, Joey Gallo, Alex Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Buster Posey, Giants ($3100/$4300)
- Carson Kelly, Diamondbacks ($3700/$4600)
- Victor Caratini, Padres ($2300/$3300)
- Yasmani Grandal/Yermin Mercedes, White Sox ($2700/$5100)/($3100/$5000)
- Yan Gomes, Nationals ($2400/$3500)
Notes: Posey is out of his mind right now with seven hits in his last 10 at-bats. He is hitting .333 over his career against German Marquez, as well. Carson Kelly has been a cheat code against LHP this season, hitting .545/.722/1.364 against southpaws. It really makes no sense to pay up for catchers these days, so inexpensive options like Caratini, Grandal and Gomes are quite viable.
- Freddie Freeman, Braves ($3900/$5500)
- Vladimir Guerrero, Blue Jays ($3700/$5700)
- Jose Abreu, White Sox ($3600/$5600)
- Jared Walsh, Angels ($3100/$4100)
- Brandon Belt, Giants ($3100/$2900)
Notes: All Freddie Freeman does is get on base and produce fantasy points. Kyle Hendricks is giving up fly balls and home runs by the truckload this season. Vlad Guerrero hit three HR’s last night and is now hitting .525 with four HR’s at home in Dunedin this season. Abreu never seems to cool off. He is hitting a cool .375 with a .531 wOBA, 3 HR and 6 RBI over his last five games. Abreu also owns a 50% hard contact rate and just 5.6% strikeout rate during that same time frame. The value play here is Brandon Belt, whose DK price is insanely low for some reason. Belt owns German Marquez over his career, going 10-24 (.417) with 1 HR, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 BB (.462 OBP) and 2 SB’s against him.
- Jose Altuve, Astros ($3800/$5300)
- Ozzie Albies, Braves ($3000/$5100)
- David Fletcher, Angels ($2800/$3000)
- Tommy Edman, Cardinals ($2800/$4500)
- Josh Harrison, Nationals ($2800/$3800)
Notes: Altuve is four for his first nine since returning from the Covid list. The Astros have the second-highest implied team total tonight and should be able to rough up Justin Dunn and the Mariners bullpen. Albies has been crushing the ball when he makes contact lately. Ozzie has a 41.2% hard contact rate over his last 10 games. David Fletcher is so cheap on DK. He makes for an outstanding mini-stack with Shohei Ohtani and/or Mike Trout this evening. Edman is in such a great spot, but be really careful about this game. If Fletcher’s game is postponed, Nico Hoerner moves up into cash game viability for us.
- Yoan Moncada, White Sox ($3100/$5200)
- Manny Machado, Padres ($3400/$4900)
- Alex Bregman, Astros ($3700/$5400)
- Kyle Seager, Mariners ($3100/$3900)
- Gio Urshela, Yankees ($2600/$3200)
Notes: Moncada eats Detroit pitching for breakfast, shits it out during the day, and feeds it back to them for supper. He is hitting .545 with a .612 wOBA over the last four games. I really love Machado in this spot tonight. He matches up extremely well against Taylor Widener, specifically his inside fourseam fastball. Kyle Seager is 6-16 (.375) career against Greinke and also is a career .268/.342/.502 with 16 HR at Minute Maid Park. I absolutely, positively despise the Yankees right now, but they are bound to go off eventually, and Urshela is starting to put good wood on the ball over his last four games (42.5% hard contact).
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres ($4500/$5600)
- Trea Turner, Nationals ($3500/$5100)
- Bo Bichette, Blue Jays ($3400/$5900)
- Tim Anderson, White Sox ($4000/$5500)
- Dansby Swanson, Braves ($2600/$3500)
Notes: This is a loaded position tonight and could be the defining choice on whether we go to the moon or not. Tatis is looking back at the catcher and knows exactly where the pitch is going. He’s smashing to the tune of a .653 wOBA and 68.8% hard contact rate over his last five games. Turner is elite and gives us a bit of price relief on both sites tonight. With Vladimir Guerrero hot as blazes, Bichette should start seeing a ton of fastballs, which means a hot streak is coming. The value SS today is Dansby Swanson, who has five hits in his last nine at-bats.
- Mike Trout, Angels ($4600/$6200)
- Ronald Acuna, Braves ($4300/$6000)
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros ($3500/$5400)
- Randy Arozarena, Rays ($3400/$4400)
- Cedric Mullins, Orioles ($3100/$4100)
- Joey Gallo, Rangers ($2800/$3700)
- Shohei Ohtani, Angels ($4200/$4200)
- Michael Brantley, Astros ($3300/$5500)
- Dylan Carlson, Cardinals ($3100/$3300)
- Willie Calhoun, Rangers ($2800/$2900)
Notes: The outfield is expensive tonight, so we are going to have to find our value players elsewhere. I am hoping a couple of value options open up, but if not, we are going to roll with some big dogs here and hope they eat. The Ohtani/Trout mini-stack will be a favorite once again, while Brantley/Alvarez isn’t too far behind. Cedric Mullins is still leading the league in hits (thanks for that one Phil Backert!), and Yankees pitching certainly hasn’t been slowing him down.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($7300)
3B – Manny Machado, Padres ($3400)
SS – Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres ($4500)
OF – Mike Trout, Angels ($4600)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
P – Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($7400)
3B – Manny Machado, Padres ($4900)
SS – Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres ($5600)
2B – David Fletcher, Angels ($3000)