MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE
ADDED TO PLAYER POOL: Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Cubs
UPDATED CORE 4 (FANDUEL): 1) Corbin Burnes 2) Aaron Judge 3) Rougned Odor 4) Austin Hays
UPDATED CORE 4 (DRAFTKINGS): 1) Corbin Burnes 2) Aaron Judge 3) Rougned Odor 4) Austin Hays
I am STILL likely using Alex Bregman, possibly with Yuli Gurriel as a mini stack but not core material here. This Core 4 will allow you to USE ANY PLAYER THAT YOU WANT ON THE REST OF YOUR LINUEP. GOOD LUCK!!
I fricking TOLD YOU guys. Ye of little faith got sore as we got down to the wire on Friday night but ultimately were (hopefully) slightly over the cash line. Then my squad Vlad Sedler on Saturday and Ted Schuster on Sunday delivered the goods giving the Elite Mafia a much needed win streak heading into a new week.
I also told you guys that Bryce Harper was lock button this weekend and that Dustin May was a really good arm that had been underpriced. Now, the DFS sites were ridiculous with their slates this weekend and the Phillies/Rockies game wasn’t on the main slate so that is none of our fault. Still, I need to reinforce my rant from Friday. We don’t fucking lose. Maybe for a day or week but this is a team of winners who never let our foot off of the gas.
We aren’t half assing our analysis over here folks. Believe me when I tell you that I see what our competition is trotting out there. I can tell an overwhelming number of DFS MLB lineups are being spit out by optimizers. I see the dudes who were all into politics a month ago stumble back into sports to get a payday. I listen to the boxscore readers try and tell me Fernando Tatis is incredible for hitting two homeruns against the Dodgers but don’t mention his head turn to watch where the catcher was locating before hitting a great slider that was a foot outside over the left field wall. We don’t miss a damn thing around here.
OK, so maybe we miss on tech when our chat rooms go down for most of the weekend but I digress…lol. A quick reminder of our content plan today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB
DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
The Opening Line – Hosted by Frank Brank & Fried Egg Paulie
Lunch Money – Hosted by Claudia Bellofatto
Baseball Elite Podcast – Hosted by Kyle Elfrink & Ray Flowers
Tonight, we have the perfect slate of MLB games. There are nine total games with no true aces but a couple of pitchers who are closing in on that tag already this season. We lose Coors Field and have two of the best offenses in baseball coming in struggling mightily.
I love Corbin Burnes and for good reason. The dude is absolutely unhittable right now having given up just one total run in his first four starts of the season. We used Tyler Mahle last week to great success as well and the matchup of Shohei Ohtani against the lowly Rangers is definitely intriguing. There is also one pitcher going tonight who I spent A LOT of time talking about this spring. He was one of my biggest sleepers coming into the year and hasn’t disappointed yet. Do you remember who that was?
The good news is that for the first time for me at least, we have a slate that isn’t a full 14 games nor a wimpy five or six game slate. This is the perfect slate to challenge all of the other DFS players out there and confound the optimizers. Want to run a 27-person train against the Elite Mafia tonight? Go right ahead you artificially intelligent cuck. We aren’t stopping the streak tonight!
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers – No threat of a cancellation or anyting of course but temperatures will be in the 50’s at game time with the wind chill pushing that down even more. The dome will be closed which we all know causes the ball to fly around like a ping pong ball.
Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals – It’ll be a beautiful night in St. Louis, but the winds will be toward the extreme side. The winds are blowing out to left field at 17-20 MPH. There is a slight benefit to flyball prone right-handed hitters but nothing dramatic.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers – Another windy game here in Arlington as the temperatures will be in the 80’s and winds blowing out to left field at 16-19 MPH all night. This park is not faring well for hitters in the early going despite some dog shit pitchers being on the hill over the first three weeks. Could be a sneaky place to stack tonight.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
1) Milwaukee Brewers: -180
2) New York Yankees: -175
3) Los Angeles Dodgers: -170
4) Atlanta Braves: -170
5) Los Angeles Angels: -165
Highest Run Expectancy
1) Los Angeles Angels: 5.08
2) New York Yankees: 4.98
3) Atlanta Braves: 4.73
4) Houston Astros: 4.70
5) Oakland A’s: 4.66
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Miami Marlins: 2.96
2) Colorado Rockies: 3.44
3) Cincinnati Reds: 3.45
4) St. Louis Cardinals: 3.61
5) Milwaukee Brewers: 3.74
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Chi Chi Gonzalez||COL||28.20||5.97||0.330||4.56||4.83|
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers ($11,100/$10,400) – There are quite a few really good pitching options here tonight with Burnes being the best of the bunch. He has been virtually unhittable so far this year giving up just one earned run (a solo HR by Byron Buxton) and eight hits this year. He has also not walked a single batter while striking out an incredible 47.1% of hitters he’s faced. Eventually, Burnes will get hit around but there is just no realistic fact base for that to be against the Marlins tonight. Miami owns the second worst wOBA (.274) against RHP and are hitting just .183 with a .221 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate over the last seven games. Instead of looking at Corbin Burnes as though he is an $11.1K pitcher, just look at him as being $1400 less than Jacob deGrom was last time out.
2) Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins ($9600/$8400) – Did you guess that Rogers was my preseason sleeper pitcher? Yu should have because I talked non-stop about him during Spring Training. Rogers is an electric lefty with a 96 MPH fastball, swing and miss downward slider and a knee buckling straight changeup. Rogers enters this start with a 35.6% strikeout rate (third highest on the slate) and tied with Corbin Burnes with a 19.0% swinging strike rate (second best in MLB). This kid is the real deal and the Brewers bats are not. It is very tempting to take the $1500 discount and roll with T-Rog instead of Burnes tonight. On the other hand, on DK we can use both in a game that will struggle to see five total runs plated in total.
3) Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels ($9100/$7700) – So this is going to be a test. I only printed Ohtani’s name here for a reason. For starters, he has the best pure stuff of any pitcher going tonight. He is nearly unhittable producing a 34.1% strikeout rate, a 13.4% swinging strike rate and a ridiculous 66.7% groundball rate this season. On DK, Ohtani at $7700 makes perfect sense. I do think that Maddon runs him five innings tonight which should pad his strikeout total. But on FD at $9100, he is just too expensive to justify. That is why I am endorsing Sean Manaea against the Rays on Fanduel tonight. He didn’t technically qualify for cash games in this spot but I am very confident that Manaea’s abolishment of his slider and uptick in velocity will make him more effective overall. I also do not believe in the Rays ability to his LHP outside of Randy Arozarena and slap hitting Manny Margot. So, Ohtani is my mid-tier guy on DK and Manaea on FD tonight.
4) Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros ($6700/$8200) – Urquidy is significantly underpriced on FD here tonight. He doesn’t a swing and miss arm which is why he consistently comes up short in ownership in DFS. But he does throw all four of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup, curveball) for strikes to all four quadrants of the zone. While his contact numbers do suggest regression approaching, it’s doubtful that it begins tonight against the Mariners. Seattle owns the sixth worst batting average .217, seventh worst wOBA at .295 and sixth highest strikeout rate at 26.5% this season. The Astros are heavy favorites in this spot and should allow for Urquidy to pickup both a QS and win tonight.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Rangers – .272 BAA, 5.58 xFIP, 5.24 SIERA, 42.5% FB%, 15.8% HR/FB%, 1.94 HR/9, 35.2% hard contact rate, 7.8% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
2) Matt Harvey, RHP, Orioles – Sorry Sandro Anello. But .354 BAA, 4.51 xFIP, 4.45 SIERA, 21.6% HR/FB%, 2.32 HR/9, 40.7% hard contact rate, 7.0% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
3) Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners – .242 BAA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 4.27 SIERA, 23.1% HR/FB%, 1.62 HR/9, 9.7% BB%, 36.2% hard contact rate, 9.7% swinging strike rate in 2021.
4) Rich Hill, LHP, Rays – .299 BAA, 4.12 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA, 33.3% FB%, 23.5% HR/FB%, 2.20 HR/9, 34.7% hard contact rate, 6.7% swinging strike rate in 2021.
5) Zach Davies, RHP, Cubs – .313 BAA, 6.00 xFIP, 6.15 SIERA, 2.09 WHIP, 32.7% FB%, 11.1% HR/FB%, 1.17 HR/9, 6.7% swinging strike rate in 2021.
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|15||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||34||149||11||32||23||6||12.8||14.80||0.336||0.287||0.304||0.403||0.640||0.436||175|
|20||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||35||150||8||25||26||1||16.7||16.70||0.246||0.337||0.311||0.440||0.557||0.427||178|
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Yadier Molina, Kurt Suzuki, Elias Diaz
1B – Anthony Rizzo
2B – DJ LeMahieu
3B – Pablo Sandoval
SS – Paul DeJong, Trevor Story, Corey Seager
OF – Marcell Ozuna, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Joyce, Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Charlie Blackmon
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Buster Posey, Giants ($2900/$3800)
2) JT Realmuto, Phillies ($3300/$5200)
3) Sean Murphy, A’s ($2500/$3900)
4) Mike Zunino, Rays ($2600/$3700)
Notes: Posey is looking more and more like his old self minus a bit of that power. But he is hitting .308 with a .510 wOBA and 41.7% hard contact rate over the last five games. He is also smashing lefties again to the tune of .316/.350/.632 this season. Sean Murphy is hitting in the middle of a red-hot A’s lineup and has a .331 wOBA with a 121 wRC+ over the last five games. If Zunino is in the lineup, roll with him but if Francisco Mejia is in there he qualifies too. Zunino has 2 HR and a .545 ISO with 52.0% hard contact rate over the last four games.
1) Freddie Freeman, Braves ($3900/$6000)
2) Yuli Gurriel, Astros ($2900/$4600)
3) Rhys Hoskins, Phillies ($3700/$5200)
4) Jared Walsh, Angels ($3600/$4300)
5) Jose Marmolejos, Mariners ($2500/$3200)
Notes: Freeman and Hoskins are the best hitters and first base tonight. Although Rhys was en fuego over the weekend, that was at Coors Field so tread lightly. Gurriel has been good all season long and has started to find his power stroke. He has two HR’s and eight RBI over the last six games. The wind is working against Jared Walsh if the Globe Life Park dome is open tonight but he’s still in a great spot against flyball prone Jordan Lyles.
1) Ty France, Mariners ($3400/$4000
2) Ozzie Albies, Braves ($3300/$5300)
3) Nick Solak, Rangers ($3500/$4900)
4) Tommy Edman, Cardinals ($2800/$4400
5) Rougned Odor, Yankees ($2200/$3100
Notes: If you don’t believe that these DFS companies don’t have anybody overseeing pricing, Ty France would be example 1A. This guy is such a solid hitter and yet never sees a price increase or high ownership. France is hitting .421 with a .546 wOBA and 41.2% hard contact rate with seven runs scored and five RBI over his last six games. Solak is also pure fire though the matchup with Ohtani is bad for him. Still, the Angels bullpen has allowed five HR’s and a 15.2% HR/FB% over the last week.
1) Alex Bregman, Astros ($3800/$5000)
2) Justin Turner, Dodgers ($3500/$5100)
3) Matt Chapman, A’s ($2900/$4900)
4) Ryan McMahon, Rockies ($3400/$4800)
5) Maikel Franco, Orioles ($2900/$3500)
Notes: Bregman is crushing LHP this year hitting a cool .375/.444/.625 against them with 2 HR and 7 RBI. Turner hasn’t cooled off since the first week of the season and just continues to rip every single night. It’s not a great matchup against Tyler Mahle but once they get to the Reds bullpen big things can happen for the Dodgers lineup. Chapman is so underpriced on FD that it’s seriously bewildering. I’ve been waiting for Maikel Franco to have a breakout season since 2016 so we will have to settle for his last five games in which he is hitting .275 with 44.4% hard contact rate.
1) Carlos Correa, Astros ($3600/$5400)
2) Trevor Story, Rockies ($3500/$4800)
3) Gleyber Torres, Yankees ($2500/$4600)
4) Corey Seager, Dodgers ($3500/$5100)
5) Elvis Andrus, A’s ($2200/$3200)
Notes: Correa is loving life in the leadoff spot right now as he’s hitting .318 since taking over those duties. Correa has a 40.0% hard contact rate and just a 12.5% strikeout rate over his last seven games. Trevor Story smashed Phillies pitching over the weekend and has been red hot for most of the last week hitting .357 with a .441 wOBA and a 165 wRC+ over the last five games. Gleyber let us down on Friday but proceeded to get on back four of his next nine at-bats over the weekend. Andrus is a sneaky play tonight as he is just starting to come out of his slump and is a career .338/.386/.517 hitter at the Trop.
1) Aaron Judge, Yankees ($3500/$5900)
2) Bryce Harper, Phillies ($4300/$5700)
3) Dylan Carlson, Cardinals ($2900/$3300)
4) Randy Arozarena, Rays ($3300/$4300)
5) Trey Mancini, Orioles ($3100/$4400)
6) Nick Castellanos, Reds ($3800/$6100)
7) Darin Ruf, Giants ($2300/$3000)
8) Mike Trout, Angels ($4500/$6300)
9) Ramon Laureano, A’s ($3200/$4500)
10) Austin Hays, Orioes ($2300/$2600)
Notes: Damn tonight’s outfield is quite a mess. The guy I have the most confidence in once again in Bryce Harper even though he’s not playing in Coors anymore. Still, he has a dominant hit pattern against Adam Wainwright and is coming off a two HR game. Dylan Carlson might be the best hitter on this slate that nobody else will own. Carlson is 7-11 (.636) with and .800 OBP over his last three games. If we’re looking for value, the Orioles outfield is a nice place to find it where we can pick off a Trey Mancini (FD only, 1B on DK) or Austin Hays who is an elite hitting prospect that has started to turn a corner. We will likely have to update the OF position closer to lock to really focus in on where we are going specifically with the value plays.
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Corbin Burnes, Brewers ($11,100)
3B – Alex Bregman, Astros ($3800)
SS – Carlos Correa, Astros ($3600)
OF – Austin Hays, Orioles ($2300)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
P – Corbin Burnes, Brewers ($10,400)
3B – Alex Bregman, Astros ($5000)
SS – Carlos Correa, Astros ($5400)
OF – Austin Hays, Orioles ($2600)