Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
Today on the Main Slate we have Nick Rodriguez with the Cheat Sheet and Ricky Sanders handling the GPP article.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Early Bird – A complete writeup of all the early slate MLB games by the man, Scott Bondar.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Saturday, April 24th
A six-game main slate today may end up being just five games once we receive word of a PPD with OAK-BAL. The Athletics would have been a popular GPP stack and some of their individual studs would have been likely highlighted in this article. Instead, the focus goes back to Coors Field where the Phillies have the slate’s highest implied run line (5.8) in the second game of this series with the Rockies. They’ll have their ace, Aaron Nola, on the mound and will hope to pound the Rockies’ subpar starter, Antonio Senzatela.
To make the slate even slimmer, two other games will have some slight weather issues (ARI/ATL, TEX/CWS) while the final two games are expected to be pitcher duels (MIA/SF – Lopez vs. Gausman, SD/LAD – Snell vs. Bauer). This is definitely a slate where we may want to consider toning down our cash-game play and focus more on 3-max GPPs where we look to differentiate from the field and hope for mayhem.
Does not look good in Baltimore (A’s vs. Orioles). High possibility of this one getting postponed as heavy rain is expected not long after expected first pitch. Keep an ear out for news on this one. Additionally, Rangers vs. White Sox and Diamondbacks vs. Braves will both see some rain though TEX/CHW should be fine to play without delays while ATL might have some pop-ups and mid-game delays.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
1 – Atlanta Braves (-196)
2 – Philadelphia Phillies (-192)
3 – Chicago White Sox (-164)
Highest Run Expectancy
1 – Philadelphia Phillies (5.8)
2 – Atlanta Braves (5.3)
3 – Chicago White Sox (4.5)
Oakland A’s listed at 5.3 but odds off the board at this time
Lowest Run Expectancy
1 – San Diego Padres (3.2)
2 – Miami Marlins (3.2)
3 – Texas Rangers (3.5)
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1 – Trevor Bauer, RH/Dodgers ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD)
Though we have a handful of good SP to choose from today I do believe we make the sacrifice at hitter and find some value bats in order to make Bauer fit today. Over his first four starts in Dodger Blue, Bauer has a 36:6 K:BB and opponents are hitting a measly .114 against him. The Dodgers will look to right their ship and avoid getting swept by the Padres this series. Their offense has struggled worse than it ever has, but that has no impact on how Bauer can laser focus on putting batters away today. We saw the 70-point FanDuel outing that all cashing teams had yesterday with deGrom and we know exactly who has the best chance to drop 50+ and notch double-digit strikeouts. Most importantly, Bauer goes deep into games and has at least 96 pitches in each of those first four starts.
2 – Aaron Nola, RH/Phillies ($8,800 DK, $8,000 FD)
We finally saw vintage Nola in his last start as he threw an absolute gem earlier this week – a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts against a red-hot Cardinals team. Sure, the Rockies can be a tough collection of hitters to face when they’re at home, but we’re still dealing with less than ideal weather, and this offense just isn’t the same fearsome one we’ve been used to with Arenado over the years. Nola hasn’t faced the Rockies since 2019 though he did have 21 strikeouts to just two walks in only 11.2 innings against them over two starts (one in Coors). Nola’s price tag is depressed because of the game location and though this may feel more like a GPP play, I feel comfortable rolling Nola out there in cash games today.
- BEST SP2: Pablo Lopez, Marlins ($6,900 DK) then Kevin Gausman, Giants ($7,600 DK)
- BEST Contrarian GPP Play: Drew Smyly, Braves ($6,700 FD)
Pitchers to Target Against
1 – Antonio Senzatela, Rockies
Career in Coors Field (238 IP): 4.88 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 15.2% K. In three home starts this season, he actually has two gems (v. NYM: 6 IP – 5 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 4 K, v. ARI: 8 IP – 4 H – 0 ER – 2 BB – 3 K) and one horrific outing (v. LAD: 3.1 IP – 9 H – 7 ER – 1 BB – 2 K). Last season, he was better at home (2.10 ERA) than the road (4.62) but it was a shortened season and a career anomaly. In general, his LvR splits are fairly even though slightly worse against LHH (.359 wOBA) than RHH (.343 wOBA).
2 – Madison Bumgarner, Diamondbacks
Despite bouncing back earlier this week allowing just one run and one walk with five strikeouts in five innings against the Nationals, Bumgarner is still tied for the most earned runs allowed among all pitchers this season (18). Opposing teams have been stacking right-handed hitters against him as much as they can and they’ve accounted for 14 of those 18 earned runs and a .323 AVG / .425 wOBA against him. Last season, Bumgarner had a 6.91 road ERA with a .404 wOBA and 11 HR in 30 IP allowed to right-handed hitters.
3 – Kyle Gibson, Rangers
A real-life box of chocolates, we really never know what we’re going to get. A small sample of just two starts at home and two starts on the road but he’s been Jekyll and Hyde. He has 14 shutout innings with a 14:1 K:BB at home and 7.1 innings with 6 ER and 4:5 K:BB (and he’s on the road today). Last season Gibson posted a disappointing 5.35 ERA (5.70 xERA) in 12 starts. He is an extreme groundball pitcher with near even splits yet slightly worse against lefty bats (career .172 wOBA vs. LHH, .154 vs. RHH).
If somehow OAK/BAL plays then we must focus on RHH’s vs. Wade LeBlanc (L).
TARGETING STOLEN BASES
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|16||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||35||153||12||33||24||6||12.4||15.00||0.349||0.281||0.302||0.399||0.651||0.439||177|
|25||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||36||155||8||25||26||1||16.1||16.80||0.236||0.333||0.307||0.432||0.543||0.419||172|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – n/a
1B – Jose Abreu (CHW)
2B – n/a
3B – Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX), Eduardo Escobar (ARI), Manny Machado (SD)
SS – Elvis Andrus (OAK)
OF – Adam Eaton (CHW), Charlie Blackmon (COL), Raimel Tapia (COL)
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
1 – Travis d’Arnaud, RH/Braves ($4,500 DK, $2,800 FD)
2 – J.T. Realmuto, RH/Phillies ($5,300 DK)
3 – Jose Trevino, RH/Rangers ($3,200 DK)
Notes: Braves’ backstop d’Arnaud (ATL) is the best bang for the buck, hitting middle of lineup against Bumgarner. Of course, Realmuto (PHI) is technically our top play, but if you plan on using Trevor Bauer as your SP, then you’ve got to save salary somewhere. Trevino (TEX) is the punt though with significantly less power output or expectation than the other two.
If A’s / Orioles somehow ends up playing, Sean Murphy (OAK) at $4,100 DK, $2,500 FD becomes the top play.
1 – Rhys Hoskins, RH/Phillies ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD)
2 – Brad Miller, LH/Phillies ($3,400 DK, $3,100 FD)
3 – Jose Abreu, RH/White Sox ($5,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
4 – Brandon Belt, LH/Giants ($2,900 DK)
Notes: Tough decisions because we can’t fit all the big PHI bats and get the great pitching we want so we have to make sacrifices somewhere. That’s why Miller (PHI) and Belt (SF) are listed as affordable options at first base. Let’s make sure Miller plays first since he was scratched yesterday with a neck issue. Marlins’ SP Pablo Lopez isn’t someone to necessarily attack but he does have considerably worse splits against lefty bats so that puts Belt in play. If spending up, it’s Hoskins by a hair over Abreu but the two have big price differences on both sites.
1 – Ozzie Albies, SW/Braves ($5,000 DK, $3,300 FD)
2 – Jazz Chisholm, LH/Marlins ($4,100 DK, $3,100 FD)
3 – Nick Solak, RH/Rangers ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD)
Notes: Albies (ATL) is fresh off a 21-point DK game where he crushed a homer and the matchup with Bumgarner doesn’t get any better. Chisholm (MIA) has been flourishing as the leadoff man against RHP and homered in San Francisco yesterday. Solak (TEX) has been scorching of late with 5 HR on the young season and has reached base safely in 9-of-10. He hits higher in the lineup against LHP’s like Dallas Keuchel.
1 – Alec Bohm, RH/Phillies ($3,800 DK, $3,200 FD)
2 – Austin Riley, RH/Braves ($3,200 DK, $2,400 FD)
3 – Justin Turner, RH/Dodgers ($5,100 DK, $3,800 FD)
4 – Wyatt Mathisen, RH/Diamondbacks ($3,000 DK, $2,000 FD)
Notes: Another Philly guy in Bohm as the top play and he’s much more affordable than Hoskins/Harper/Realmuto even though the level of talent is all that much of a drop-off (he’s just been cold to start). Turner (LAD) is the way to get different today since most won’t roster hitters against Snell in general but we know by now that Turner is one of the league’s best lefty mashers over the last half-decade. Riley (ATL) and Mathisen (ARI) are the two punt plays. Riley has the big-time power while Mathiesen is dirt cheap, facing a lefty in Smyly, and might hit high in the lineup today – maybe second?
1 – Dansby Swanson, RH/Braves ($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
2 – Trevor Story, RH/Rockies ($5,000 DK, $3,800 FD)
3 – Didi Gregorius, LH/Phillies ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD)
4 – Tim Anderson, RH/White Sox ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)
Notes: Swanson (ATL) is the way many may go today to save some coin and prioritize key Phillies bats at other positions and his price point today is substantially lower than all of the studs. Among the pricey guys, I still think we see at least 20% of the cash field on Story (COL) despite the tough matchup since he’s been heating up of late. I do think Anderson (CHW) is the sneakiest guy of the group. He’s the most expensive but is scorching of late with two homers, two swipes and two three-hit games in his last five.
1 – Bryce Harper, LH/Phillies ($6,000 DK, $4,800 FD)
2 – Ronald Acuña Jr., RH/Braves ($6,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
3 – Adolis Garcia, RH/Rangers ($3,500 DK, $3,300 FD)
4 – Marcell Ozuna, RH/Braves ($3,200 FD)
5 – Guillermo Heredia, RH/Braves ($3,900 DK, $3,000 FD)
6 – Alex Dickerson, LH/Giants ($3,600 DK, $2,700 FD)
7 – A.J. Pollock, RH/Dodgers ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD)
8 – Raimel Tapia, LH/Rockies ($3,000 DK, $3,100 FD)
9 – Andrew McCutchen, RH/Phillies ($4,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
10 – Corey Dickerson, LH/Marlins ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD)
Notes: Harper (PHI) is our priority today on the slate. Even if Senzatela is a groundballs guy who doesn’t serve up a grand amount of homers, it’s still a pristine matchup for Bryce. Though I’d still consider Acuña (ATL) over Harper today on FD with the matchup against Bum and a skanky bullpen. Garcia (TEX) is much too cheap for how locked in he’s been – four homers in his last five games. Enjoy while it lasts (or maybe it’ll last a while?). Ozuna (ATL) has a great, underpriced tag on FD to take advantage of. Then we’ve got a ton of punt options including both left-handed Dickersons facing RHP (prefer Alex for power though he could get double-switched), Pollock (LAD) and Tapia (COL).
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Trevor Bauer, Dodgers
3B – Alec Bohm, Phillies
OF – Marcell Ozuna, Braves
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Trevor Bauer, Dodgers
3B – Alec Bohm, Phillies
OF – Adolis Garcia, Rangers
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies