Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE
ADDED TO PLAYER POOL:
ALEX KIRILOFF, OF, TWINS
GIO URSHELA, 2B/3B, YANKEES
GLEYBER TORRES, SS, YANKEES
UPDATED CORE 4’S
P – Jacob deGrom, Mets ($12,500)
2B/3B – Gio Urshela, Yankees ($2200)
SS- Gleyber Torres, Yankees ($2500)
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies ($4800)
P – Jacob deGrom, Mets ($10,900)
2B/3B – Gio Urshela, Yankees ($3300)
SS- Gleyber Torres, Yankees ($4200)
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies ($5700)
We begin today with a reading from the book of Matthew:
“Suddenly a furious storm came up on the lake, so that the waves swept over the boat. But Jesus was sleeping. The disciples went and woke him, saying, ‘Lord, save us! We’re going to drown! He replied, ‘You of little faith, why are you so afraid?’ Then he got up and rebuked the winds and the waves, and it was completely calm. The men were amazed and asked, ‘What kind of man is this? Even the winds and the waves obey him!’” (Matthew 8:23-27).
If you’ve ever wondered where the phrase “oh ye of little faith” came from, this is it. If you’re wondering why, I am beginning today’s writeup with this, visit our MLB chat room and scroll up to Tuesday night. You will notice that on Tuesday night, after a second consecutive losing night, some of you were getting worried. Some of you were getting mad. A couple of you were freaking out and contemplating quitting.
Me? I was getting angry. People don’t like me when I am angry.
To be clear, I wasn’t angry at any of you. I wasn’t angry at Ted for choosing Chris Paddack over Corbin Burnes. I wasn’t angry at our entire group of hitters for collecting a total of three singles all night. No, I was angry at myself. Not for a mistake or for building a shitty lineup. I was mad at losing. I don’t like losing. I don’t accept losing. I don’t stand for losing. I become a different person when I lose, and quite honestly, it is a person that I do not like. This is why I just don’t do it. People will say many, many things about me, but the one thing they won’t, don’t, and can’t say is that I lose.
You see, whenever I lose or am on a losing streak, I will go to depths that nobody else is ever willing to go. Sleep? Ha! Eat? Nah. Friends and family? No chance. I am on two very important daily medications that are keeping my cancer-induced anemia at bay. I missed all five doses between Tuesday night and Wednesday night to the point that the only reason I realized it was that I was sweating profusely while watching the end of the Rays/Royals game.
You guys trust me to inform, educate, entertain, and create winners out of you. At least that is what I believe. Maybe you are just here because of my handsomeness? Yeah, exactly. I take that responsibility very, very seriously. If I lose with the information provided in this article, chances are you are losing too. I know, there are many times when I win and some of you lose. Other times, I lose and many of you win. I prefer the latter if given the choice.
My point here is that you’ve chosen the right man, the right team, the right company and the right website if you share any of this dedication to winning. I will fucking DIE before losing our bankrolls. Over the years, in my fury, I have told paying customers to go ahead and leave. I dare you to. Because that is like turning Rocky off when Apollo knocked him down for the seventh time. We are less than a month into the 2021 MLB season. We had a fantastic first week before getting beat up in weeks two and three.
For those of you who were questioning me (or us) in the chat on Tuesday, I hope you kept the faith on Wednesday and Thursday. Because if you didn’t, you were like the people on that boat who doubted Jesus’s ability to steer them clear of the storm. Am I comparing myself to Jesus? Damn…I guess that I am. Well, all I will say is that I haven’t seen Jesus churn profits in DFS in multiple sports for eight consecutive years. Yeah, I said it. Go cry to your Mommies, we’ve got lineups to build.
Here is the content plan for today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Friday, April 23rd
As if my opening wasn’t enough, the pitchers on tonight’s slate will definitely test our faith. Jacob deGrom is in a smash spot but will cost you an arm and a leg. We’ve also got studs like Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke on the slate here. If you’ve been paying attention to this article over the last week, you should know exactly where we are attacking on the mound. If you haven’t been, keep reading.
We also have the Phillies and Rockies playing at Coors Field, where it is finally warming up (a bit) tonight. As good as the top-end pitchers are, there are plenty of absolute junkballers to take advantage of with our bats. Do we lock button Ronald Acuna in his return to action tonight? Should we ride those red-hot Red Sox bats as we have the past two days? Do we need to worry about the lineup trains on a 14-game slate?
Follow me, my friends. For evidently, good things happen to those who keep the faith.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals – There is rain moving in late in St. Louis tonight. It doesn’t look to be an issue at all for this game, but it’s a system that could produce pop-up storms. So, just keep an eye on this one just in case.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- New York Mets: -280
- Atlanta Braves: -160
- Tampa Bay Rays: -150
- Minnesota Twins: -145
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -140
- Boston Red Sox: -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- Colorado Rockies: 5.67
- Oakland A’s: 5.18
- Boston Red Sox: 5.17
- Philadelphia Phillies: 4.89
- Atlanta Braves: 4.72
- Minnesota Twins: 4.70
Lowest Run Expectancy
- San Diego Padres: 3.17
- Toronto Blue Jays: 3.18
- Washington Nationals: 3.28
- St. Louis Cardinals: 3.37
- Miami Marlins: 3.39
- Detroit Tigers: 3.63
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets ($12,500/$10,900) – He’s the best pitcher in MLB and dominates every single time he is on the mound. The key to using deGrom is to afford this salary, we really need him to have a great chance to get that “win” because missing out on those points hurts our bottom-line ROI. The Mets are the heaviest favorite on the board and the Mets bats have started to come around. Facing Erick Fedde at home, this should be a golden opportunity for deGrom to scoop up every last point here tonight.
2) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers ($11,000/$10,200) – A $1500 discount for a very sure thing might be of interest here tonight. Kershaw isn’t that dominant strikeout king that he was a few years ago but he throws a quality start just about every time out and has dominated this Padres lineup in the past. He’s limited San Diego’s lineup to a .218 BAA and .266 wOBA in over 130 plate appearances.
3) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Rays ($11,200/$10,100) – There are a lot of moving pieces as it pertains to Glasnow tonight. He has been outstanding so far this season having surrendered just two earned runs in four starts. The Rays are a big favorite today, so Vegas assumes that he will dominate the Toronto bats this evening. But the Blue Jays bats are dangerous and the opposing pitcher, Steven Matz has been throwing out of his mind so far this season. The Rays bats have been incredibly inconsistent so far and that might hurt Glasnow’s chances to get a win. Still, he’s one of the most dominant arms in baseball and has the potential to post a 60+ effort.
4) Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins ($8000/$7400) – Alcantara is one of the best values in baseball tonight. He has registered four consecutive 6+ innings outings which in today’s MLB is quite an accomplishment. His fastball is one of the fastest and heaviest in baseball generating just a .209 xwOBA and owning a 28.3 whiff rate this season. Sure, the Giants got to him for four runs in his last outing, but one of those was inherited by Richard Bleier giving up a HR to Austin Slater with Brandon Crawford (who got a hit off Alcantara) on base. He is a very safe option in this matchup tonight at a price that we can’t beat. Alcantara is the ideal mid-tier option because he provides significant strikeout opportunity as well.
5) Dane Dunning, RHP, Rangers ($8500/$7300) – Dunning is quite cheap tonight and will likely be massively overlooked by the mainstream DFS players. Remember, this is a kid who was a first-round pick just a few years ago and a centerpiece of the Lucas Giolito trade to the White Sox back in 2016. Dunning grew up with this young White Sox team and knows them extremely well. The White Sox traded him to the Rangers for Lance Lynn this offseason, which shows the value he has around the league. Dunning has been fantastic to start 2021 as he owns the fifth-best ERA in MLB (0.60) and 10th in WHIP (0.80). It’s a dangerous matchup for sure, but with the way he is throwing the ball and the price he will cost, Dunning is cash game viable ideally as your second arm on DK tonight.
6) Mike Minor, LHP, Royals ($6400/$6900) – I never dreamed that I would be writing Minor’s name down here in this space so I am sure that it is surprising to you as well. Remember, I am giving you guys cheap pitcher options here in order to provide you with multiple ways of building your lineups tonight. If you use deGrom, you need mostly all value bats. If you use Minor and/or Wright, you could grab a ton of Coors Field bats and a few elite-level hitters. Here is the deal with Minor. His success and failures can be traced directly to his velocity. For years he was a 91-93 MPH fastball guy who got beat up anytime he wasn’t locating. Then he got sent to the bullpen in Kansas City where he flourished by finding an extra 3-4 MPH on his fourseam fastball and eliminating his two-seamer (sinker) that was holding him back. What followed was two years in Texas where he was one of the better pitchers in the league. He was an All-Star in 2019 who finished eighth in the Cy Young Award voting that season. Last year, he was a mess, failing in both Texas and Oakland before limping to Spring Training with the Royals this year. Well, as we look at his Statcast data from last year, we see that his fastball was registering just 90 MPH with a changeup that came in just under his fastball and therefore got destroyed. In Spring Training this year, he was building velocity on his fastball, starting at just 89.6 MPH before averaging 93.4 MPH in his last two outings. In three regular-season starts so far, he is regularly hitting 93 MPH with an average of 91.8 MPH. He’s given up 3 HR and only struck out 12 in his 15.2 innings, but this leaves me optimistic that he could be trending toward a solid rebound season. I’ll trust it here in this matchup against a Tigers club that strikes out 27.7% of the time, fourth-most in MLB, and owns both the worst batting average (.175) and wOBA (.227) against lefties this season.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Jorge Lopez, Orioles – .264 BAA, 1.44 WHIP, 37.2% FB%, 23.5% HR/FB%, 2.05 HR/9, 55.4% LOB%, 34.1% hard contact rate, 9.4% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
2) Luke Weaver, Diamondbacks – .270 BAA, 4.79 xFIP, 47.1% FB%, 14.1% HR/FB%, 1.83 HR/9, 41.0% hard contact rate, 10.2% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
3) Martin Perez, Red Sox – .252 BAA, 5.27 xFIP, 5.27 SIERA, 1.17 HR/9, 36.3% FB%, 13.2% HR/FB%, 37.9% hard contact rate, 8.2% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
4) Erick Fedde, Nationals – .246 BAA, 4.99 xFIP, 5.21 SIERA, 1.43 WHIP, 19.6% HR/FB%, 1.61 HR/9, 33.8% hard contact rate 6.0% swinging strike rate over last two seasons.
5) Cole Irvin, A’s – .321 BAA, 4.42 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 1.40 HR/9, 14.3% HR/FB%, 87.4% contact rate, 37.7% hard contact rate, 6.5% swinging strike rate against over last two seasons.
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|16||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||35||153||12||33||24||6||12.4||15.00||0.349||0.281||0.302||0.399||0.651||0.439||177|
|25||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||36||155||8||25||26||1||16.1||16.80||0.236||0.333||0.307||0.432||0.543||0.419||172|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – Wilson Ramos, Kurt Suzuki, JT Realmuto
1B – Rowdy Tellez, Yuli Gurriel, Albert Pujols, Todd Frazier, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer
2B – Jeff McNeil, Starlin Castro, Ozzie Albies, Tommy Edman
3B – Jeimer Candelario, Kyle Seager, Manny Machado
SS – Trevor Story, Brandon Crawford
OF – Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Andrew Stevenson, Ronald Acuna, Justin Upton, Mike Trout, Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- JT Realmuto, Phillies ($3800/$5100)
- Salvador Perez, Royals ($3400/$5500)
- Carson Kelly, Diamondbacks ($2900/$4200)
- Sean Murphy, A’s ($2400/$4300)
- Francisco Mejia, Rays ($2200/$3300)
Notes: There are quite a few catchers who have been hitting so far this season. Realmuto and Sal Perez are pretty obvious, especially with the Phillies in Coors Field tonight. Carson Kelly might be the hottest hitter in baseball with a .574 wOBA, .818 slugging and 34.3% hard contact rate over his last six games. Kelly is averaging 20.1 FD points per game over his last seven games. Francisco Mejia might be in the beginning of his long-awaited breakout season. He owns a .484 wOBA over his last five games and an average exit velocity of 90.4 over his last 14 contact events. If you are looking for one more catcher that might be significantly lower owned, Yasmani Grandal caught Dane Dunning last season and knows him quite well. Grandal didn’t quite qualify for cash games but would make a very solid GPP option.
- Matt Olson, A’s ($3700/$5000)
- CJ Cron, Rockies ($3800/$3900)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves ($3900/$6200)
- Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox ($2200/$3600)
- Brad Miller, Phillies ($3000/$3000)
Notes: Olson is cruising right now with a .423 wOBA, 41.7% hard contact rate, 5 HR’s, 9 RBI and just a 6.9% strikeout rate over his last seven games. He also smashes at Camden Yards posting a career triple slash of .350/.458/.500 in Baltimore. I am assuming that CJ Cron and even Rhys Hoskins will be heavily owned tonight as neither is particularly priced up despite being at Coors Field. Dalbec is a very good value play here tonight. He is a career .354/.367/.688 hitter against LHP while also posting a .282/.346/.521 slash at home. This is an optimal environment for Dalbec and quite a few of the Red Sox hitters. Both Yuli Gurriel and Jose Abreu graded out above the cash game line tonight as well, but I am promoting Miller here because of the low price on both sites. Miller is a great low ball hitter (.210 ISO) and that correlates well with German Marquez especially when he can elevate at Coors Field.
- Ty France, Mariners ($3200/$3800)
- Ozzie Albies, Braves ($2900/$5100)
- Luis Arraez, Twins ($3000,$4400)
- Jed Lowrie, A’s ($3400/$4800)
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees ($3100/$4600)
- Cesar Hernandez, Indians ($2200/$3900)
Notes: Ty France is one of the hottest hitters in baseball but evidently DraftKings hasn’t got the message because he is seriously underpriced. France owns a .429 BA, .510 wOBA, .357 ISO and 75% hard contact rate over his last five games. Likewise, Fanduel somehow has Ozzie Albies priced beneath Kike Hernandez tonight. Jeff McNeil also graded out for cash games tonight, but Arraez beats him out based on expected run production. If McNeil hits leadoff by some chance tonight, he will be added to the player pool. Adding Cesar Hernandez here this morning for a value play in front of J-Ram.
- Alex Bregman, Astros ($3300/$4900)
- Jose Ramirez, Indians ($3200/$5100)
- Alec Bohm, Phillies ($3100/$3500)
- Yoan Moncada, White Sox ($2700/$4500)
- Austin Riley, Braves ($2200/$3300)
Notes: On a giant slate like tonight, we’ve got to really do our homework in order to take advantage of pricing errors when they present themselves. My gut instinct is that Alec Bohm will be somewhere around 75% owned on DK tonight at this price. Bregman returned in a big way this week, going 5-7 in his first two games back. Austin Riley has been on base 10 times over his last 15 plate appearances (.667) with a HR, five runs scored, 2 RBI and 16.25 FD points per game over his last four.
- Trevor Story, Rockies ($4100/$5100)
- Carlos Correa, Astros ($3000/$5000)
- Eugenio Suarez, Reds ($3200/$4600)
- Tim Anderson, White Sox ($3600/$5200)
- Didi Gregorius, Phillies ($3300/$4700)
Notes: The SS position is loaded once again tonight, though it is going to cost us a pretty penny. When Trevor Story is making this kind of contact (68.4% over last five games) he is the best shortstop in fantasy baseball. Correa hit leadoff last night and it appears as though he will do so again tonight against Andrew Heaney. It should also be stated that Xander Bogaerts is cash viable here tonight, but he is so expensive on both sites that I am leaving him out of our pool for now. Didi should be back in the lineup tonight as has an outstanding matchup here against German Marquez’s sinker/slider. Gregorius has a 63.6% flyball rate over his last four games which is perfect heading into a weekend series in Colorado.
- Bryce Harper, Phillies ($4800/$5700)
- JD Martinez, Red Sox ($4400/$6000)
- Justin Upton, Angels ($3200/$3200)
- Jorge Soler, Royals ($3000/$3800)
- David Peralta, Diamondbacks ($2600/$3800)
- Mitch Haniger, Mariners ($3400/$4100)
- Jordan Luplow, Indians ($3100/$3900)
- Hunter Renfroe, Red Sox ($2500/$3200)
- Michael Conforto, Mets ($2700/$3600)
- Charlie Blackmon, Rockies ($3900/$4500)
- Joey Gallo, Rangers ($3000/$4200)
- Pavin Smith, Diamondbacks ($2400/$3300)
Notes: The way Bryce Harper is hitting right now, him going to Coors Field just might be the play of the season. It’s crazy how underpriced Justin Upton is on DK considering he is hitting .333 with a .565 wOBA and 3 HR over his last four games. Jorge Soler absolutely crushes at Comerica Park where he is a .347/.440/.733 hitter with 7 HR, 18 RBI and 8 2B. There is some real value in these Seattle RH hitters tonight and Haniger went yard at Fenway yesterday. Make sure that both Luplow and Renfroe are in the lineup tonight as they should be facing off against LHP. The one player that may be added to our player pool tonight if there are lineup changes is Whitesox OF Luis Robert who has a .433 wOBA and 46.4% hard contact rate over his last five games.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Jacob deGrom, Mets ($12,500)
1B/3B – Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox ($2200)
OF – Hunter Renfroe, Red Sox ($2500)
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies ($4800)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
P – Jacob deGrom, Mets ($10,900)
2B – Ty France, Mariners ($3800)
3B – Alec Bohm, Phillies ($3500)
OF – Bryce Harper, Phillies ($5700)
(If you made it here without crying or writing an angry Tweet about my comparisons to Jesus, well done. You are the reason I will go to the end of the earth to keep us winning. If you were somehow offended, you need to grow up. Faith is important and if I or anybody else can shake yours by simply writing a few words, you should work on it.)