[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Stuck in traffic? Boss looking over your shoulder? Just lazy and don’t want to read? Click here to listen!”]
Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in tonight’s MLB Cash Games!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
Thursday, August 15th
There are 8 games on the main slate for Thursday. We don’t have any real high-priced pitching so that can make some decisions a bit easier, as every pitcher on both sites is less than 10k. There are plenty of teams capable of putting up some runs as we have some real trash on the mound. The Yankees and the Twins both have some very high team totals, so would expect them to be the most popular.
Some Updates from last night: Pineda is starting for the Twins. Not all that interested in any Rangers in cash or Pineda who could have a pitch limit. Josh Rojas gets an upgrade since hitting 2nd. Senzel and Ervin worth considering vs. Wacha.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
It looks like a great night for baseball with no weather issues and some warm weather.
- LAA -170
- CIN -160
- NYY -160
- MIN -145
- ARI -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- NYY 6.20
- MIN 6.12
- LAA 5.51
- CIN 5.44
- HOU 5.13
Lowest Run Expectancy
- CHW 3.99
- STL 4.07
- SF 4.13
- PHI 4.41
- NYM 4.52
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Astros ($7,700 DK & $8,400 FD) – The Astros are starting to look like the Patriots of MLB in the way they are able to transform starting pitchers. A ton of run support has helped but Sanchez has allowed just 1 run in 11 innings in his first two starts with his new team. The curveball has been used even more since the trade along with more four seam fastballs and we have seen a drastic reduction in the number of sinkers thrown. The pitch movement has always been there for Sanchez but he needed to learn how to pitch.
2) Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs ($9,700 DK & $9,400 FD) – This is the Darvish the Cubs paid big money for. The velocity has been better the last two months and he is throwing a ton of sliders. There have been some occasional HR’s when he hangs them but the strikeouts are up as well. Darvish has a 34.5% K rate and a 13.5% swinging strike rate over the last month which is the best on the slate along with the lowest xFIP. The Phillies have the 5th lowest ISO and are in bottom half of K% rate & ISO over the last 30 days vs. RHP.
3) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels ($9,000 DK & $6,400 FD) – This is a FanDuel specific play as the Draftkings price is not usable for a pitcher who is likely going to be limited to 85 to 90 pitches. If Heaney was an RHP, he would be much higher on this list as the White Sox have been awful vs. that handedness. Chicago does have the lowest BB % rate vs. LHP which should ideally keep the pitch count down.
4) Drew Smyly, LHP, Phillies ($6,600 DK & $7,200 FD) – This is a Draftkings specific play as the match-up isn’t easy with the addition of Castellanos to the Cubs lineup. Smyly has seen a jump in strikeouts since coming to the Phillies and part of that is no more changeups and more cutters & curves. The homeruns are still a problem but at his price, you can handle for a few runs allowed if he gets 6 to 8 strikeouts.
5) Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds ($9,100 DK & $9,800 FD) – This has been the most consistent Gray has been in a few years. He has allowed just 8 runs in his last 7 starts and that includes one where he allowed 4 runs. All but one of those starts was a quality start so he is good for at least 6 innings in most outings. It appears the entire NL central finds it real tough to win on the road which is another reason to take a home pitcher. If you are afraid of the two top guys, Gray is a solid alternative.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Arlington Park – 15.9% runs above average, 8.8% HR’s above average, 34.1% 3B’s above average
2) Citizens Bank Ballpark – 19.2% HR’s above average
3) Great American Ballpark – 17.6% HR’s above average
4) Angel Stadium – 13.3% HR’s above average
Things To Target (Against)
1) Adam Plutko, RHP, Indians – 5.73 xFIP, 2.34 HR/9, 6.50 xFIP in the last 30 days
2) Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants – 5.21 xFIP, 1.54 HR/9, .368 wOBA vs. LHH
3) Pedro Payano, RHP, Rangers – 5.72 xFIP, .455 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.58 xFIP in the last 30 days
4) Michael Wacha, RHP, Cardinals – 5.00 xFIP, 2.12 HR/9, .403 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Albert Young, LHP, Diamondbacks – 4.91 xFIP, 4.98 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Devin Smeltzer, LHP, Rangers – 4.64 xFIP, 1.41 HR/9
Here’s our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
1B – Joey Votto – Reds, Pete Alonso – Mets
2B- Cesar Hernandez – Phillies
3B – Eugenio Suarez – Reds
OF – Corey Dickerson – Phillies, Nick Castellanos – Cubs
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez – Yankees
- Mitch Garver – Twins
- Buster Posey – Giants
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Rangers
- James McCann – White Sox
Sanchez has been on base 7 times in his last two games and gets to face the HR prone Plutko. Garver faces a pitcher with a .455 wOBA vs. RHH. Posey has always been good vs. LHP and faces a pitcher due for regression. IKF is a value option. McCann has a .378 wOBA vs. LHP.
- Pete Alonso – Mets
- Jake Lamb – Diamondbacks
- Freddie Freeman – Braves
- Carlos Santana – Yankees
- Marwin Gonzalez – Twins
- Jose Abreu – White Sox
Alonso has 2 HR’s and been on base 7 times in 9 PA’s vs. Teheran. Lamb is affordable option on both sites. Freeman has a .421 wOBA over his last 27 games and Santan has a .471 wOBA over his last 14 games. Gonzalez is another affordable option in a favorable match-up while Abreu has a .393 wOBA vs. LHP and is discounted on DK.
- Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks
- Gleyber Torres – Yankees
- Donovan Solano – Giants
- Luis Arraez – Twins
- Josh Rojas – Diamondbacks
Marte has a .383 wOBA vs. RHP. Torres like Sanchez faces a HR prone pitcher. Solano has a .378 wOBA v. LHP and is likely leading off. Arraez has a .385 wOBA vs. RHP. Rojas is another cheaper option on FD who had a great season in the minors.
- Miguel Sano – Twins
- Kris Bryant – Cubs
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Evan Longoria – Giants
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks
- Gio Urshela – Yankees
This is the best position on the slate. Sano has a .418 wOBA on the road and cheaper than he should be on FD. Bryant has a .474 wOBA vs. LHP. Suarez has a .435 wOBA over his last 28 games. Longoria has a .395 wOBA on the road. Escobar has a .298 ISO at home. Urshela has a .545 wOBA over the last 26 games.
- Jorge Polanco – Twins
- Didi Gregorius – Yankees
- Javier Baez – Cubs
- Francisco Lindor – Indians
- Elvis Andrus – Rangers
This is a tough position to find value at. Polanco has a .371 wOBA on the road while Didi is affordable on both sites. Baez has a .417 wOBA vs. LHP but has struggled on the road or would be higher on this list. Lindor ha a .410 wOBA over his last 29 games.
- Nick Castellanos – Cubs
- Max Kepler & Eddie Rosario – Twins
- David Peralta – Diamondbacks
- Aristides Aquino – Reds
- Josh VanMeter – Reds
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Aaron Judge – Yankees
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Austin Slater – Giants
- Hunter Pence – Rangers
- Delino Deshields – Rangers
- Ronald Acuna – Braves
Castellanos has a .490 wOBA since joining the Cubs and has always hits LHP. Twins OF will look to take advantage of a bad Rangers pitching staff. Peralta gives you a solid mid-tier option. All of the Reds are in good spots. Judge seems to cheap on DK but maybe the price is right with his lack of HR’s. Slate and DeShields give you some value if hitting towards the top of the lineup.
Cash Game Breakdown