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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
UPDATE: Jordan Lyles has been traded. Alex McRae will start for the Pirates. Prefer picking Lyles but McRae and the bullpen can be had.
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Hitting Coach (Benny Ricciardi) – 11am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Monday, July 29th
There are 7 games for the Monday slate. The trade deadline is approaching so it is important to keep track of ongoing news as we could see some late scratches over the next 3 days. This could also change some lineups over the next few weeks as teams unload somewhat valuable veterans as they build for the future.
For a smaller slate, we have plenty of awful pitchers to pick on, which should make ownership interesting with a game at Coors Field. The over/under on the Coors game is high with the warm weather but we have two respectable pitchers going. The ownership of the Dodgers specifically should be interesting with how good their offense has been and facing a pitcher who is considered solid but has struggled badly vs. them.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
It is a warm night for baseball. We don’t have any weather issues with which to deal.
No lines available on BAL/SD
- LAA -228
- CIN -177
- WAS -146
- LAD -138
- KC -114
Highest Run Expectancy
- LAD 6.63
- LAA 6.61
- COL 5.87
- CIN 5.54
- WAS 5.25
Lowest Run Expectancy
- ARI 3.95
- PIT 3.96
- MIA 4.05
- ATL 4.25
- TOR 4.81
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
1) Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres ($10,200 DK & $8,900 FD) – The price on FanDuel is too cheap so he will be heavily owned. Paddack has been dominant at home allowing just a .214 wOBA with a 32.3% K rate. The Orioles have the 6th highest K% rate, 3rd lowest ISO and 4th lowest wOBA on the road this season. I have been overly concerned to a potential pitch limit this season for Paddack but honestly have been wrong in many cases so jumping on the bandwagon here.
2) Jaime Barria, RHP, Angels ($7,200 DK & $7,000 FD) – It has not been a huge sample size but Barria has been much better at home with a 26.5% K rate allowing just a .262 wOBA at home. The Tigers have the 2nd-highest K% rate vs. RHP, 6th lowest ISO and 3rd lowest wOBA vs. RHP over the last month. They also have the 2nd highest K% rate, 4th lowest ISO and 4th lowest wOBA over the last week.
3) Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds ($9,400 DK & $9,200 FD) – The Pirates don’t strike out much but have the 2nd lowest ISO and 6th lowest wOBA since the All-Star break vs. RHP. Gray has actually been able to get a few K’s vs. the Pirates with 14 over 15 1/3 innings this season. With the Paddack price on FanDuel, you are looking more as a Draftkings play. He has averaged 27.8 DK points over his last 5 games.
4) Brad Keller, RHP, Royals ($8,400 DK & $8,400 FD) – The last 3 starts for Keller have been very good allowing just a total of 3 ER’s and going at least 6 1/3 innings in all of those starts. It is the same case for Keller on FanDuel as Gray since the price is too close to Paddack. Keller has been very good at getting ground balls at 59% over the last 5 starts. The Blue Jays are in sell mode right now so already lost Sogard via a trade and could be shipping out other players as well. Toronto is bottom 10 in K% rate, wOBA and ISO on the road this season where the home run ball isn’t as easy as home.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 61.1% above average in runs scored, 35% above average in HR’s, 29.3% above average in 2B and 248.9% above average in 3B.
2) Angels Stadium – 19.9% above average in HR’s and 9.3% above average in runs scored.
3) Nationals Park – 19.8% above average in HR’s and 15.2% above average in 2B’s.
4) Great American Ballpark – 11.1% above average in HR’s.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Jordan Zimmerman, RHP, Tigers – 5.34 xFIP, .400 wOBA vs. LHH, .358 wOBA vs. RHH, 4.97 xFIP in the last 30 days, .316/.349/.476 career vs. current Angels hitters
2) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Pirates – 1.75 HR/9, .416 wOBA vs. LHH, 4.84 xFIP in the last 30 days, .346/.437/.679 allowed vs. current Reds hitters
3) Baltimore Bullpen – 4.90 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 4.78 ERA in the last 30 days
4) Thomas Pannone, LHP, Blue Jays – 5.56 xFIP, 5.37 xFIP in the last 30 days, .395 wOBA against on the road
5) Jaime Barria, RHP, Angels – 4.86 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, .384 wOBA vs. RHH, 5.08 xFIP in the last 30 days
6) Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Braves – .406 wOBA allowed on the road, .350/.500/.574 allowed vs. current Nationals hitters
7) Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies – .355/.456/.659 allowed vs. the Current Dodgers team.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Chris Iannetta – Rockies, Tony Wolters – Rockies
1B – Cody Bellinger – Dodgers, Albert Pujols – Angels, Joey Votto – Reds
2B – Brian Dozier – Nationals
3B – Anthony Rendon – Nationals
SS – Corey Seager – Dodgers
OF – Johan Camargo – Braves, AJ Pollock – Dodgers
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Yan Gomes – Nationals
- Carson Kelly – Diamondbacks
- Francisco Mejia – Padres
- Cam Gallagher – Royals
- Will Smith – Dodgers
Gomes has a .392 wOBA vs. LHP and Kelly has a .521 wOBA vs. LHP though not an easy match-up. Mejia faces the terrible O’s in what is likely bullpen game. Gallagher has a .378 wOBA over his last 13 games. Smith should see regular playing time in the Dodgers high powered offense.
- Joey Votto – Reds
- Howie Kendrick – Nationals
- Joc Pederson – Dodgers
- Daniel Murphy – Rockies
- Albert Pujols – Angels
Votto is 7 for 16 with 2 HR’s & 6 BB’s vs. Lyles who has given up at least 5 runs in his 3 of his last 4 starts. Kendrick has a .393 wOBA vs. LHP and is nice value on FD. Pederson is leading off in Coors but is expensive. Murphy has a .395 wOBA over his last 24 games. Pujols has BvP & homers in his last 2 games and 3 in his last 6.
- Brian Dozier – Nationals
- Max Muncy – Dodgers
- Scooter Gennett – Reds
- Ozzie Albies – Braves
- Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks
Dozier has a .414 wOBA vs. LHP and BvP against Keuchel. Muncy has a 1.407 OPS at Coors in 61 PA’s. Scooter is due for a break-out game. Albies has a .439 wOBA vs. LHP but does get a tough match-up. Marte has a .401 wOBA vs. LHP.
- Anthony Rendon – Nationals
- Eugenio Suarez – Reds
- Hunter Dozier – Royals
- Eduardo Escobar – Diamondbacks
- Matt Thaiss – Angels
Rendon has a .427 wOBA vs. LHP and BvP. Suarez has a .442 wOBA over the last 30 days. Dozier has good numbers this season and a good match-up but never seems to show up when I use him. Escobar has a .436 wOBA vs. LHP by like Marte the match-up is not easy. Thaiss is a value option if he makes the lineup with 3 HR’s in his last 3 games.
- Corey Seager – Dodgers
- Fernando Tatis – Padres
- Andrelton Simmons – Angels
- Nick Ahmed – Diamondbacks
- Trevor Story – Rockies
The move to the 6th spot might be a good thing for Seager who has a 1.005 OPS at that spot which is his best any lineup position. Tatis has a .397 wOBA vs. RHP and a .409 wOBA at home. Simmons isn’t a great hitter but his team should score some runs and he hits in the middle of the order. Ahmed has a .376 wOBA vs. LHP. Story in Coors is never a bad play.
- Cody Bellinger – Dodgers
- Mike Trout – Angels
- Whit Merrifield – Royals
- Alex Verdugo – Dodgers
- Shohei Ohtani – Angels
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
- Josh VanMeter – Reds
- Jesse Winker – Reds
- Yasiel Puig – Reds
- Austin Riley – Braves
- Jorge Soler – Royals
- Justin Upton – Angels
- Kole Calhoun – Angels
- Hunter Renfroe – Padres
- Brian Goodwin – Angels
Bellinger has been great this season and is 9 for 14 with 5 XBH’s vs. Gray. Trout has a .453 wOBA over the last 21 games and always sees lower ownership when we have a Coors game. Merrifield has always hit LHP well. Verdugo is not expensive for a guy likely to hit 2nd in Coors. Ohtani and the rest of Angels OF are in a good spot vs. Zimmerman. Blackmon has insane numbers at home. The Reds OF should all benefit from facing Lyles.