Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
Happy Mother’s Day, please make sure to take care of the mothers in your lives. Enjoy every moment that you can with them as you never know how long they will be in your life. We will always have memories for those that are no longer with us. My mom has been gone for 20+ years, and I wish nothing more than for her to get a chance to meet her grandkids. I would also like to wish a special thanks to my wife, who tolerates my sports addiction.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Sunday, May 9th
There are 11 games on the Sunday slate with another day of terrible weather. There is a good chance that 3 games will be canceled and some risk for other games. We do have Jacob deGrom back, but the question will be, how many pitches will he be able to throw?
UPDATES – [email protected] already cancelled and would expect the same from [email protected] The rest of games should play with possible late game rain in New York. Chicago should play with cold temps and winds blowing in at 20 MPH. I am leaning towards fading DeGrom today. There is official word on any pitch limit but wouldn’t doubt it is somewhere around 80. The Diamondbacks are not a big strikeout team so not thrilled with paying top dollar for a guy who won’t likely make past the 6th. I also expect the Mets to score some runs which would make it easier to pull him.
Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees – It should be dry for the game, but the rain is going to move in towards the evening hours.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets – Same goes for this game as the Yankees game.
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Indians – This game is almost certain to be rained out.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers – 80% chance of rain, so this is also likely to be postponed.
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals – 60% chance of rain that eventually clears out, but we will see when that happens.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs – It will rain with some possible wet snow all morning, but it is expected to clear out for the game. It will just depend on whether the field is playable.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- New York Mets: -325
- Chicago Cubs: -170
- New York Yankees: -165
- Minnesota Twins: -160
- Houston Astros: -158
Highest Run Expectancy
- New York Yankees – 5.04
- Boston Red Sox – 4.80
- Texas Rangers – 4.51
- Chicago White Sox – 4.36
- New York Mets – 4.25
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 2.25
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 2.55
- Milwaukee Brewers – 3.12
- Detroit Tigers – 3.41
- Colorado Rockies – 3.45
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (FD 12500 & DK 11700) – The question for the best pitcher in baseball is how many pitches will be allowed. The match-up is neutral, but deGrom has a 48% K rate and has 1.37 xFIP this season. In order to justify the price tag, I need to know he will be allowed to throw 90+ pitches. I will update the article if we can get more information before lock.
2) Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins (FD 9000 & DK 9400) – The Brewers have the 5th highest K% rate, 24th lowest ISO and 29th in wOBA vs. RHP. They also have the 7th highest K% rate, 21st in ISO and 23rd in wOBA over the last week. It always helps when Alcantara pitches at home. The strikeouts should be higher with the 14.6% swinging strike rate, so double-digit strikeouts is possible. Alcantara would be the next best choice if the risk feels too great on deGrom’s price tag and pitch count.
3) Kenta Maeda, RHP, Twins (FD 7400 & DK 8300) – The weather is a question mark along with Maeda’s early-season struggles. He did seem to figure some things out in his last outing vs. the strikeout-prone Rangers. The Tigers are the ideal match-up since they have the highest K% rate and 28th in wOBA vs. RHP. Detroit is also 28th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and they have the 2nd highest K% rate over the last week.
4) Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs (FD 7100 & DK 6900) – It appears that maybe Hendricks has solved his early-season issues. He shut down the Dodgers in his last outing, which is no small task. Rumors were mentioned by the Rick Sutcliffe that Hendricks might have been dealing with a heel issue that he got from a collision late in spring training. The Pirates lineup is pathetic, but the only issue is that they do not strike out much. If Hendricks is back to his old stuff, a complete game is not out of the possibility, and the price tag is cheap.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Riley Smith, RHP, Diamondbacks and the Bullpen – 5.51 xFIP, 6.7% swinging strike rate and worst bullpen in the league
2) Sam Hentges, LHP, Indians – .518 wOBA vs. RHH, 6.6% swinging strike rate
3) Mike Minor, LHP, Royals – 4.56 xFIP, 9.8% BB rate and .434 wOBA vs. LHH
4) German Marquez, RHP, Rockies – 13.7% BB rate, 43.8% Hard Contact Allowed, .358 wOBA vs. LHH
5) Dean Kremer, RHP, Orioles – .380 wOBA vs. LHH, .383 wOBA vs. RHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|8||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||66||282||22||50||56||2||14.5||16.00||0.339||0.347||0.343||0.447||0.682||0.469||201|
|17||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||61||270||18||53||42||13||13.3||22.20||0.314||0.318||0.292||0.396||0.606||0.421||168|
|20||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||52||219||21||47||48||13||11.0||27.90||0.387||0.283||0.277||0.352||0.665||0.414||168|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – Mitch Garver – Twins
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals, Miguel Cabrera – Tigers
2B – Adam Frazier – Pirates
3B – Josh Donaldson – Twins
OF – Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
For more, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Mitch Garver – Twins (DK 4900)
- Kyle Higashioka – Yankees (DK 3700)
- Yasmani Grandal – White Sox (DK 4600)
- Willson Contreras – Cubs (DK 5400)
- James McCann – Mets (DK 3900)
Notes: It is always difficult to decide what to do at catcher. Garver is questionable, but he has great history vs. Boyd. Also, the weather is an issue. Higashioka is the lead catcher in NY who has 5 HRs in 45 ABs. Grandal has been great vs. LHP, and so has Contreras. McCann and the Mets offense should score some runs. You may just need to find a punt option on the slate depending on lineup builds.
- Pete Alonso – Mets (FD 3800 & DK 5000)
- Jose Abreu – White Sox (FD 3800 & DK 4700)
- Miguel Sano – Twins (FD 2600 & DK 3300)
- Marwin Gonzalez – Red Sox (FD 2400 & DK 3300)
- Mike Ford – Yankees (FD 2100 & DK 3500)
Notes: Alonso just missed a HR last night, but I think it will happen today. Abreu has always been great vs. LHP. Sano is a punt option on DK with big power. Marwin is in play if he is back to leading off vs. an RHP. Ford is a punt option on FD. This is either a pay-up position or go with the value.
- Jeff McNeil – Mets (FD 2900 & DK 4300)
- Nick Solak – Rangers (FD 3000 & DK 4700)
- Nick Madrigal – White Sox (FD 2800 & DK 2600)
- Nick Senzel – Reds (FD 2400 & DK 3100)
- Jorge Polanco – Twins (FD 2900 & DK 4800)
Notes: It was a big night for McNeil last night, and no reason it cannot happen again against the terrible pitching staff of the Diamondbacks. Solak has great numbers vs. LHP. Madrigal is a DK only play if he hits 2nd again like he did last night vs. another LHP. Senzel is a value on both sites if the game gets played. Polanco and the Twins should hit a few HRs against Boyd.
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox (FD 3500 & DK 5200)
- Josh Donaldson – Twins (FD 3000 & DK 5000)
- Alex Bregman – Astros (FD 3700 & DK 4800)
- DJ Lemahieu – Yankees (FD 3100 & DK 5400)
- Jonathan Villar – Mets (FD 2400 & DK 3400)
- Kyle Seager – Mariners (FD 2900 & DK 4500)
Notes: Devers has a .438 wOBA over the last 14 days. Donaldson hits LHP well and has good history vs. Boyd. Bregman has a better price on DK than FD. Lemahieu is the opposite. Villar is in play if he gets bumped up in the order. Seager takes on Dunning, who struggles vs. LHH.
- Francisco Lindor – Mets (FD 3000 & DK 4900)
- Xander Bogaerts – Reds Sox (FD 3600 & DK 5000)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Rangers (FD 2900 & DK 4300)
- Tim Anderson – White Sox (FD 3800 & DK 5200)
- Miguel Rojas – Marlins (FD 3100 & DK 4400)
Notes: Lindor is 5 for his last 11 with 4 BBs along with a HR and SB. Bogaerts has 4 HRs in his last 8 games. I will try to play both of them on FD. IKF has been a surprise this season with some power and speed. He usually leads off vs. LHP. Rojas has been great vs. LHP the last two seasons, but the only issue is lack of power.
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (FD 4300 & DK 5000)
- Michael Conforto – Mets (FD 3200 & DK 4000)
- Kyle Garlick – Twins (FD 2300 & DK 2900)
- Joey Gallo – Rangers (FD 3000 & DK 3900)
- Yordan Alvarez – Astros (FD 3900 & DK 4800)
- Nelson Cruz – Twins ( FD 3800 & DK 5400)
- Giancarlo Stanton – Yankees (FD 3600 & DK 5700)
- Garrett Cooper – Marlins (FD 2200 & DK 3800)
- Adam Duvall – Marlins (FD 2900 & DK 4100)
- Nick Castellanos – Reds (FD 4000 & DK 5200)
- Alex Verdugo – Red Sox (FD 3200 & DK 3900)
- Khris Davis – Rangers (FD 2200 & DK 3400)
- Juan Soto – Nationals (FD 4000 & DK 4900)
- Aaron Hicks – Yankees (FD 2600 & DK 3200)
- Kevin Pillar – Mets (FD 2400 & DK 2800)
Notes: JD has a wOBA just shy of .500 vs. RHP. Conforto is a solid price on both sites. Garlick will likely lead off vs. a LHP if the game plays. Gallo homered twice last night and hits L on L very well. Alvarez’ price should be higher, and he has 4 HRs in his last 7 games. Cruz is the best hitter vs. LHP over the last 10 years. Stanton has homers in 3 of his last 5. Cooper is a middle-of-the-order value on FD. Duvall is not as cheap but is 6 for his last 14 with 2 HRs. A couple of values round out the list along with Castellanos, who would be higher if I thought that game actually gets played.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Kyle Hendricks (7100)
1B – Pete Alonso (3800)
SS – Francisco Lindor (3000)
OF – JD Martinez (4300)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Kyle Hendricks (6900)
1B – Pete Alonso (5000)
SS – Francisco Lindor (4900)
OF – JD Martinez (5000)