Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
It was a bit of a mess last night with two cancellations that we wanted to be invested in, but things ended up working out. It is never easy when you have to pivot off your preferred targets. The weather could be a problem once again on Wednesday, so be prepared to make changes.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Early Bird – A complete writeup of all the early slate MLB games by the man, Scott Bondar.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Tuesday, May 4th
There are 12 games on the DraftKings slate with the Cubs and Dodgers game included, while FanDuel will have 11 games. The biggest question on the slate will be what to do with Jacob deGrom. Part of me wishes the rain in St. Louis will last all night so we can avoid that decision, but we shall see. Please keep an eye on any possible changes to the Core 4. I will be on the Core 4 livestream to talk about the slate future.
Value Updates – Dylan Carlson, Matt Carpenter Adonis Garcia, Justin Williams, DJ Stewart, Any Cheap Cardinals.
WEATHER UPDATES 640pm EST – Braves @ Nationals – The weather should be good enough to play but the Nationals are awful with games. Brewers @ Phillies should be good. Astros @ Yankees will likely see late game storms. Mets @ Cardinals does appear that rain will last longer than expected so this game does have risk
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals – 40% chance of storms. Remember, the Nationals are a shit-show when it comes to canceling games, so we need to monitor this game.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies – Same issues as Washington, but they are at least reasonable at trying to play games.
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals – It is going to rain all day long, but it does appear to dry out for the game to get played.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No odds on DET/BOS, LAD/CHC, PIT/SD
- New York Mets: -190
- Philadelphia Phillies: -190
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -180
- Boston Red Sox: -173
- Minnesota Twins: -160
Highest Run Expectancy
- Kansas City Royals – 4.91
- Oakland A’s – 4.70
- New York Yankees – 4.67
- Los Angeles Angels – 4.67
- Philadelphia Phillies – 4.61
Lowest Run Expectancy
- St. Louis Cardinals – 2.76
- Milwaukee Brewers – 3.39
- Texas Rangers – 3.56
- New York Mets – 3.74
- Baltimore Orioles – 3.95
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (FD 12500 & DK 11100) – I actually hesitate to rank him #1 on this slate with the price and lack affordable options at pitcher for FanDuel. You can figure it out on DraftKings, but you really need to find way too many cheap hitters, which does not seem easy. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball, and it is not close.
2) Nick Pivetta, RHP, Red Sox (FD 8300 & DK 7900) – He has always been a DFS darling, but I do not see it. Pivetta is due for regression at some point, but the match-up is too good to ignore. The Tigers have the 2nd highest K rate vs. RHP and 2nd lowest wOBA vs. RHP. They have the lowest wOBA, 4th lowest ISO and highest K% rate over the last week.
3) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (DK 10700) – This is DK only play since it is not on the FanDuel slate. The Cubs have the 6th highest K rate vs. RHP, and the other numbers would be worse if they did not beat up on bad pitching. Bauer has a 34.5% K rate this season, and weather conditions strongly favor the pitching. With the Dodgers playing a doubleheader, Bauer could get a short complete game.
4) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies (FD 9100 & DK 10400) – The Brewers have the 4th lowest wOBA and 5th highest K% rate vs. RHP. Nola has gone at least 6 innings in his last 3 starts, including a complete game shutout in his last home start. There are some weather issues to consider, but he has more ability to go deep into games than anyone other than deGrom if you are playing on FanDuel.
5) J.A. Happ, LHP, Twins (FD 7900 & DK 8600) – The Rangers have the 9th highest K% rate, 2nd lowest ISO and 3rd lowest wOBA vs. LHP. Happ’s ability to neutralize LHH will take out Gallo, so he just needs to pitch around Solak. Happ has gone at least 7 innings his last two starts and has not allowed more than 2 runs in any start this season.
6) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers (FD 8600 & DK 7200) – I am not interested in the FanDuel price, but DraftKings is cheap enough to take a look. The groundball rate has been great the last 5 starts. Gibson has allowed just 3 ERs total over his last 5 starts, going at least 6 innings in each of those starts. The Twins are not an easy match-up, but hard to ignore how good Gibson has been lately.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Justin Dunn, RHP, Mariners – 6.27 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, 8.2% swinging strike rate, .360 wOBA vs. LHH, 15.4% BB Rate
2) Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates – 5.87xFIP, 1.56 HR/9, 8.4% swinging strike rate, .382 wOBA, 17.3% BB rate
3) Eric Lauer, LHP, Brewers – 6.33 xFIP, .399 wOBA vs. RHH, 41.5% FB Rate which will not work in hitting friendly stadiums, 13.6% BB rate
4) Anthony Kay, LHP, Blue Jays – 5.06 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, 44.7% 1st strike rate, 13.1% BB rate
5) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Orioles – 4.69 xFIP, 1.93 HR/9, .356 wOBA, 18.1% K rate
6) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers – 4.87 xFIP, 2.03 HR/9, .473 wOBA, 18.1% K rate
7) Sam Hentges, LHP, Indians – 5.11 ERA & 1.65 WHIP in 29 minor league starts in 2019
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|16||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||35||153||12||33||24||6||12.4||15.00||0.349||0.281||0.302||0.399||0.651||0.439||177|
|25||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||36||155||8||25||26||1||16.1||16.80||0.236||0.333||0.307||0.432||0.543||0.419||172|
Batter vs. Pitcher
1B – Freddie Freeman – Braves
3B – Josh Donaldson – Twins
SS – Paul DeJong – Cardinals, Dansby Swanson – Braves
OF – Christian Yelich – Brewers
For more, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- JT Realmuto – Phillies (DK 5400)
- Roberto Perez – Indians (DK 3200)
- Yan Gomes – Nationals (DK 3400)
- Sean Murphy – A’s (DK 4500)
- Jason Castro – Astros (DK 3300)
Notes: Not a fan of this position on this slate. Realmuto is definitely the top play but hard to afford. Perez has good history vs. LHP but is playing through a broken finger and was awful in his return last night. Gomes or Avila will be in play in the Nationals lineup. Castro has been great vs. RHP and might be able to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium.
- Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (FD 3900 & DK 5400)
- Freddie Freeman – Braves (FD 4000 & DK 5700)
- Eric Hosmer – Padres (FD 3300 & DK 4600)
- Pete Alonso – Mets (FD 3800 & DK 5500)
- Matt Olson – A’s (FD 3600 & DK 4500)
- Carlos Santana – Royals (FD 3900 & DK 5200)
- Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles (FD 2600 & DK 3100)
Notes: This position is loaded with options, and I did not even include Vlad Jr. Hoskins has finally ditched the super patient approach, and it is paying off with home runs. Freeman is always a top option but expensive. Hosmer is the best mid-tier option on FD. Alonso reached base 4 times last night. Olson is the best mid-tier DK option. Santana is the hottest hitting 1B, but the price has jumped. Mountcastle is a value option if you must.
- Whit Merrifield – Royals (FD 3900 & DK 5200)
- Nick Solak – Rangers (FD 3300 & DK 4800)
- Jeff McNeil – Mets (FD 2900 & DK 4400)
- Ty France – Mariners (FD 3200 & DK 4000)
- Josh Harrison – Nationals (FD 3000 & DK 3800)
- Brandon Lowe – Rays (FD 3300 & DK 4300)
Notes: Whit can rack up points in a multitude of ways. Solak has been great vs. LHP and has a better price on FD. Only interested McNeil if he remains in the lead-off spot. France takes on a bad starter and bullpen. Harrison is one of the hottest hitting 2B right now. Lowe is in play if Cobb is the starter, but that is not 100% sure.
- Matt Chapman – A’s (FD 3000 & DK 4800)
- Manny Machado – Padres (FD 3500 & DK 5100)
- Rafael Devers – Red Sox (FD 3700 & DK 5500)
- Jose Ramirez – Indians (FD 4100 & DK 5600)
- Kyle Seager – Mariners (FD 3300 & DK 4300)
- Austin Riley – Braves (FD 2400 & DK 4100)
- Alec Bohm – Phillies (FD 2600 & DK 3700)
Notes: The only thing Chapman has been hitting is LHP this season, but he appears to be breaking out of his slump against the handedness of pitchers. Machado and the Padres are due to break out. Devers has a .436 wOBA over his last 12 games. Ramirez would be higher on the list, but the price is not cheap. Seager is a better play on DK. Riley and Bohm give you value options.
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (FD 3500 & DK 5300)
- Fernando Tatis – Padres (FD 4400 & DK 5800)
- Trea Turner – Nationals (FD 3900 & DK 4900)
- Amed Rosario – Indians (FD 2400 & DK 3700)
- Bo Bichette – Blue Jays (FD 3700 & DK 5500)
Notes: Xander continues to be underpriced on FD. Tatis has the most upside but expensive. Turner has a good price and is cheaper than I feel he should be. Rosario is in play if leading off as a value play on both sites.
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (FD 4200 & DK 6000)
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (FD 4200 & DK 5800)
- Michael Conforto – Mets (FD 3000 & DK 3600)
- Tommy Pham – Padres (FD 2300 & DK 2600)
- Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays (FD 2800 & DK 4000)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays (FD 2900 & DK 4200)
- Trent Grisham – Padres (FD 3800 & DK 5300)
- Jorge Soler – Royals (FD 3400 & DK 3400)
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (FD 3600 & DK 5500)
- Alex Kirilloff – Twins (FD 2600 & DK 3200)
- Ramon Laureano – A’s (FD 3500 & DK 5600)
- Mike Trout – Angels (FD 4500 & DK 6400)
- Yordan Alvarez – Astros (FD 3600 & DK 4700)
- Wil Myers – Padres (FD 2700 & DK 4800)
- Baltimore OF – (DJ Stewart & Cedric Mullins & Austin Hays)
Notes: Acuna and Martinez are the best expensive options. Conforto is too cheap on DK. Pham is a value play on both sites. Grichuk has crushed LHP. Hernandez hits clean-up in a potent lineup. Grisham is priced higher than I would like. Soler is too cheap on DK, and Judge is too cheap on FD. Kirilloff has been amazing the last 4 games.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Aaron Nola – Phillies (9200)
3B – Alec Bohm – Phillies (2600)
SS – Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (3500)/ OF JD Martinez (4200)
1B – Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (3900)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Trevor Bauer – Dodgers (10700)
1B – Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (5400)
OF – Tommy Pham – Padres (2600)
OF – Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays (4000)