Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
There are 12 games on the Tuesday slate with yet more weather issues in Colorado. I will be on the Livestream to discuss the slate and provide any updates as they come along. As of now, the Core 4 is built assuming the game in Colorado gets rained out. I will make some adjustments if that game gets played.
Here is the entire content plan for today:
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
Be Sure to Bookmark:
Tuesday, May 11th
We have plenty of questions to be answered on this slate on some of these pitchers. We have a bunch of pitchers who have performed well this season but do not have a great history of long-term success. The building of lineups is going to start with the status of the game at Coors. It does not look good, and if it is rained out, it would definitely spread out the ownership.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves – 30 to 40% chance of rain. It does not look like it should be a big issue, but we will see.
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies – There is at least a 50% chance of rain during game after all the rain they have seen the last two days. They already lost the game on Monday, so they may try to be patient, but it does not look good.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -250
- San Diego Padres: -205
- New York Mets: -150
- Houston Astros: -143
- Boston Red Sox: -135
- Kansas City Royals: -135
Highest Run Expectancy
- Colorado Rockies – 5.5
- Atlanta Braves – 5.0
- Oakland A’s – 4.84
- Washington Nationals – 4.67
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 4.63
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Seattle Mariners – 2.87
- Baltimore Orioles – 3.15
- St. Louis Cardinals – 3.52
- Los Angeles Angels – 3.64
- Detroit Tigers – 3.65
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) John Means, LHP, Orioles (FD 11000, DK 10300) – It has been a great start to the season for Means as he allowed 2 runs or less going at least 6 1/3 innings in all but one start. Means has allowed just 4 runs in his 6 starts this season. He has a 30.1% K rate and 15.7% swinging strike rate this season. The Mets have shown no power vs. LHP, and it will not help them if they try to put LHH’s in the lineup as Means has dominated them.
2) Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers (FD 10800, DK 9800) – He has not been dominant this season as we have seen in the past but has gone at least 6 innings in every start this season. Buehler has gotten better the last few starts with a quality start in 5 of his 6 outings. The Mariners have the 8th highest K% rate and are 25th in wOBA vs. RHP. The loss of the DH for Seattle should only make it easier for Buehler. If finding the value, you could definitely go with both Means and Buehler on DraftKings.
3) Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox (FD 8300, DK 7000) – It appears that Cease may be on the verge of his breakthrough season. He has 20 K’s in his last two starts covering 13 innings. The Twins are dangerous but do have the 4th highest K% rate over the last week and are missing some of their tougher bats to strike out. The price tag on Cease should be higher on DraftKings for a guy who has not allowed more than 2 runs in his last 5 starts. The only issue is that the coaching staff has been careful with him this season, and he has four outings that he did not make it through 5 innings.
4) Pablo Lopez, RHP, Marlins (FD 8000, DK 8200) – He has allowed just 1 ER over his last 4 starts and has not allowed more than 2 runs in all but 1 start this season. Lopez is not likely to go deep into a game, but 6 innings will do simply fine. The Diamondbacks are 29th in ISO and wOBA over the last week. Lopez would be the direction I go on FanDuel if not using Means or Buehler.
5) Brady Singer, RHP, Royals (FD 7800, DK 5700) – The Tigers have the 2nd highest K% rate and are 24th lowest in wOBA vs. RHP. Singer’s best outing of the season was 8 K’s over 7 innings vs. this same Tigers team. I prefer not to go this direction, but if you want a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, he is the way to go.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Antonio Senzetela, RHP, Rockies – 13.1% K rate, 6.9% swinging strike rate, .351 wOBA vs. LHH, .398 wOBA vs. RHP, 5.6% BB rate
2) Chase Anderson, RHP, Phillies – 5.42 xFIP, 17.8% K rate, 11.9% BB rate and .364 wOBA vs. RHP
3) Matthew Boyd, LHP Tigers – 4.96 xFIP, 17.3% K rate, 45.7% FB rate with just a 2.1% HR/FB
4) Erick Fedde, RHP, Nationals – 7.2% swinging strike rate, 10.9% BB rate, just 13% soft contact
5) Kenta Maeda, RHP, Twins – 2.2 HR/9, .420 wOBA vs. LHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
Batter vs. Pitcher
1B – Trey Mancini – Orioles, Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals
2B – Josh Harrison – Nationals, Whit Merrifield – Royals, Scott Kingery – Phillies, Starlin Castro – Nationals
3B – Hunter Dozier – Royals, Manny Machado – Padres
OF – Bryce Harper – Phillies, Andrew Benintendi – Royals, Wil Myers – Padres, Charlie Blackmon – Rockies, Ronald Acuna – Braves
For more, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Manny Pina – Brewers (DK 3000)
- JT Realmuto – Phillies (DK 5100)
- Sean Murphy – A’s (DK 4200)
- Kyle Higashioka – Yankees (DK 3200)
- Salvador Perez – Royals (DK 4500)
Notes: Pina is a value option who has good history vs. LHP and should hit around the middle of the order. JT has a good match-up but never easy to pay up at catcher. Murphy and the A’s should be able to score some runs on Eovaldi. Higashioka has 3 HRs in 13 PAs against LHP.
- Matt Olson – A’s (DK 3200 & FD 4100)
- Eric Hosmer – Padres (FD 3900 & DK 5000)
- Jared Walsh – Angels (FD 3300 & DK 3800)
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals (FD 3400 & DK 4800)
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays (FD 4000 & DK 5400)
- Seth Brown – A’s (DK 2900 & FD 2400)
Notes: Olson has a .405 wOBA vs. RHP and is definitely not priced like it. Hosmer gets Senzetela and Coors Field. Walsh should be one of the highest-priced players on each slate with his production, but his price has not gone up since everyone targets Trout and Ohtani. Goldschmidt has great history at Miller Park and is 4-5 with 2 HRs vs. Peralta. Vlad is expensive, but the Blue Jays are going to see a ton of relief pitchers.
- Whit Merrifield – Royals (FD 3700 & DK 5300)
- Jake Cronenworth – Padres (FD 3600 & DK 4400)
- Mike Brosseau – Rays (FD 2400 & DK 3100)
- DJ LeMahieu – Yankees (FD 3500 & DK 5600)
- Josh Harrison – Nationals (FD 3400 & DK 3600)
Notes: Whit is always better vs. LHP and owns Boyd at a 25-48 clip. Cronenworth has been hot lately and is too cheap on DK. Brosseau is a value option on both sites. LeMahieu is underpriced on FD, and Harrison has a better price on DK.
- Manny Machado – Padres (FD 4100 & DK 5300)
- Yoan Moncada – White Sox (FD 3000 & DK 4600)
- Cavan Biggio – Blue Jays (FD 2500 & DK 3400)
- Justin Turner – Dodgers (FD 3700 & DK 5500)
- Hunter Dozier – Royals (FD 2600 & DK 3800)
Notes: Not sure we get a chance to use Machado but definitely the most upside. Moncada has a solid price on FD against Maeda, who has been awful vs. LHH. Biggio is a value option on both sites. Turner always crushes LHP, and Dozier is 10-24 with 5 XBHs vs. Boyd.
- Fernando Tatis – Padres (FD 4700 & DK 5900)
- Trea Turner – Nationals (FD 4000 & DK 5600)
- Miguel Rojas – Marlins (FD 3400 & DK 4700)
- Dansby Swanson – Braves (FD 2700 & DK 4200)
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (FD 3500 & DK 5400)
Notes: Tatis is 20 for 49 with 11 XBHs at Coors. Turner has the 2nd highest upside on the slate and will go ignored if Coors actually plays. Rojas has incredible numbers vs. LHP, but the lack of power and increased price decreases some of the interest. Swanson is the best mid-tier option. Bogaerts’ price cannot seem to get higher than 3500 on FD.
- Wil Myers – Padres (FD 3500 & DK 4200)
- Trent Grisham – Padres (FD 4000 & DK 4300)
- Bryce Harper – Phillies (FD 4100 & DK 5700)
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (FD 4500 & DK 6000)
- Randy Arozarena – Rays (FD 3100 & DK 5200)
- Juan Soto – Nationals (FD 4000 & DK 5300)
- Aaron Judge – Yankees (FD 3600 & DK 4500)
- Tyrone Taylor – Brewers (FD 2400 & DK 2000)
- Andrew McCutchen – Phillies (FD 3200 & DK 4300)
- Garrett Cooper – Marlins (FD 2000 & DK 3800)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays (FD 3100 & DK 3900)
- Jorge Soler – Royals (FD 2600 & DK 3200)
- Avisail Garcia – Brewers (FD 2800 & DK 2900)
- Giancarlo Stanton – Yankees (FD 3900 & DK 5600)
- Lourdes Gurriel – Blue Jays (FD 2300 & DK 3200)
Notes: No idea what the deal is with the Padres OF prices on DK, but needless to say, hard to fade there. Myers is of more interest on FD than Grisham. Harper is the best high-priced option followed closely by Acuna. Arozarena has been great vs. LHP the last two seasons but best priced on FD. Taylor is not a great player but middle-of-the-order bat vs. LHP who is just 2k on DK. Cooper is a 2k punt option on FD. Soler and Garcia are DK values. Gurriel is a value on both sites.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Walker Buehler (10800)
1B – Matt Olson (3200)
2B – Whit Merrifield (3700)
UTIL – Seth Brown (2400)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Walker Buehler (9800)
1B – Matt Olson (4100)
2B – Whit Merrifield (5300)
OF – Seth Brown (2900)