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Sunday, April 25th
UPDATED 1145 EST – The Red Sox claim they are willing to wait out the rain. There is still some risk there but JD and Xander are solid options. I had discounted Eduardo Rodriquez a bit because of the weather. I don’t mind the play but risking your starter in cash is a big risk.
UPDATES 1100 EST – Minnesota game should play as the rain should off. Boston game is still high-risk. If they wait it out, they can play just not sure that they will. I am fading it in cash. Gallen is starting the 1st game for the Diamondbacks so you can fade that game completely. Upgrade Rougned Odor since he is hitting cleanup and same with JD Davis if you need DK value. Yadiel Hernandez is a punt option hitting 2nd.
There are 12 games on the DraftKings slate and 11 games on the FanDuel. DraftKings included the 1st game of the Arizona and Atlanta doubleheader, which sucks because Bumgarner appears to be starting the 1st game. He is someone I would love to pick on, but we have to be careful using Braves bats when they are likely to hit for only 6 innings. If Gallen ends up starting the 1st game, you will completely fade the Braves hitters. We do not have any elite pitchers going, but we do have some guys going who have been great to start the season. I would love to use more Red Sox on this slate but did not list many of them as I expect that game to get canceled. I will update the article as we get lineup news and updated weather information.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox – Rain is expected most of the day, so there is a good chance that this game gets canceled.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets – There is rain expected most of the night and into the morning, but it should clear out for the game to play.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Minnesota Twins – A 50% chance of rain, but it does not look like a washout, yet delays are possible.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No run totals PIT/MIN, OAK/BAL, TOR/TB, LAA/HOU
- Chicago White Sox: -225
- Minnesota Twins: -210
- Boston Red Sox: -205
- New York Mets: -153
- Oakland A’s: -136
Highest Run Expectancy
- Boston Red Sox – 5.37
- Chicago White Sox – 4.57
- Atlanta Braves – 4.51
- New York Mets – 4.48
- Kansas City Royals – 4.15
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Texas Rangers – 2.93
- Cincinnati Reds – 3.29
- Washington Nationals – 3.52
- Seattle Mariners – 3.63
- Cincinnati Reds – 3.71
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals (DK 8000 & FD 8800) – The Tigers are last in wOBA, last in ISO, and have the 2nd highest K% rate vs. LHP. Duffy will probably have some regression as the season goes on, but he has allowed just 1 ER with 19 K‘s over 18 innings in his first three starts. The price tag is still very affordable for a guy who has not gone beyond 6 innings in any of his starts.
2) Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers (DK 9400 & FD 9300) – The Cubs had been in a funk when Woodruff dominated them in back-to-back starts two weeks ago, but he followed that up with a great start vs. the Padres. Woodruff has allowed just 2 runs with 21 K’s over his last 19 innings. The Cubs have been awful outside of 3 games this season. The current Cubs team is 12 for 76 with 28 K’s vs. Woodruff.
3) Lance McCullers, RHP, Astros (DK 8800 & FD 7000) – He is coming off extra rest after getting a bit sick from his 2nd COVID vaccine. The Angels are likely to be without Mike Trout, which makes their lineup much weaker. The command has been an issue for McCullers, but the Angels are last in BB% rate vs. RHP, and those numbers are even worse without Trout. This would be a FanDuel specific play.
4) Jesus Luzardo, LHP, A’s (DK 7700 & FD 6700) – It was a tough start to the season for Luzardo, but he appears to have settled down. The A’s have won 13 games in a row, so they are red hot. The issue with Luzardo is that the rough start has led to the coaching staff protecting Luzardo a bit with low pitch counts. The Orioles have the worst BB% rate, a 28.4% K rate, .123 ISO and .298 wOBA vs. LHP.
5) Matt Shoemaker, RHP, Twins (DK 6300 & FD 7400) – This is a DraftKings specific play if you really want to pay up for bats. The Pirates have a pathetic offense and do not get much help adding the DH. The Twins should score plenty of runs against the worst starter on the slate. The biggest issue for Shoemaker is the home runs he has allowed, but Pittsburgh does not have the power to take advantage of that.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Wil Crowe, RHP, Pirates – 7.63 xFIP, 53.3% hard contact, 5.0 HR/9, 6.8% swinging strike rate, .643 wOBA vs. LHH, .466 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks – 5.68 xFIP, 43.7% hard contact, 2.54 HR/9, 9.3% swinging strike rate, .411 wOBA vs. RHH
3) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers – 4.78 xFIP, 37.4% hard contact, 2.27 HR/9, .499 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Patrick Corbin, LHP, Nationals – .301/.355/.566 career vs. current Mets hitters, .386 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Nick Margevicius, LHP, Mariners – 4.73 xFIP, 38% hard contact, 7.6% swinging strike rate
6) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mets – 4.59 xFIP, 8.5% swinging strike rate, .366 wOBA vs. LHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|16||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||35||153||12||33||24||6||12.4||15.00||0.349||0.281||0.302||0.399||0.651||0.439||177|
|25||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||36||155||8||25||26||1||16.1||16.80||0.236||0.333||0.307||0.432||0.543||0.419||172|
Batter vs. Pitcher
C – Salvador Perez – Royals
1B – Joey Votto – Reds
2B – Aledmys Diaz – Astros, Whit Merrifield – Royals, Jonathan Villar – Mets
3B – Todd Frazier – Pirates, JD Davis – Mets
SS – Eduardo Suarez – Reds
OF – Michael Conforto – Mets, Jesse Winker – Reds, Robbie Grossman – Tigers
For more BvP info, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Omar Narvaez – Brewers (DK 4300)
- Salvador Perez – Royals (DK 5600)
- James McCann – Mets (DK 3600)
- Yadier Molina – Cardinals (DK 3900)
- Carson Kelly – Diamondbacks (DK 4600)
Notes: Narvaez has a .462 wOBA vs. RHP, and Arrieta is due for a blow-up start if you look at this xFIP vs. ERA. Perez has a great match-up, but that price tag drops him to the 2nd spot. McCann has always hit LHP well and is the best cheap play. Molina probably will not hit another 5 HR’s this season but has been great early. Kelly has crazy numbers vs. LHP, but the game is a DH.
- Pete Alonso – Mets (DK 5100 & FD 3700)
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays (DK 5400 & FD 4000)
- Carlos Santana – Royals (DK 4900 & FD 3600)
- Bobby Dalbec – Red Sox (DK 3700 & FD 2100)
- Jared Walsh – Angels (DK 4200 & FD 3700)
Notes: Alonso has 2 HRs in his last 3 games and 3 over the last week. Vlad has reached base in every game this season. Santana has a .532 wOBA over the last week and faces the terrible Tigers pitching staff. Dalbec has been great vs. LHP but ranks lower on the list with his spot in the order. Walsh has been fantastic vs. RHP the last two seasons.
- Luis Arraez – Twins (DK 4100 & FD 3100)
- Kolten Wong – Brewers (DK 3200 & FD 2800)
- Whit Merrifield – Royals (DK 5500 & FD 3500)
- Almedys Diaz – Astros (DK 4000 & FD 2600)
- Rougned Odor – Yankees (DK 2700 & FD 2200)
Notes: Arraez leads off vs. the worst pitcher on the slate. Wong is another lead-off hitter with a cheap price and facing a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH. Merrifield is expensive on DK but is always capable of a big game. Diaz has great career numbers vs. Bundy. Odor has homered the last two days and faces a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH.
- Jose Ramirez – Indians (DK 5200 & FD 3400)
- Travis Shaw – Brewers (DK 4500 & FD 2700)
- Alex Bregman – Astros (DK 5000 & FD 3800)
- JD Davis – Mets (DK 3400 & FD 3000)
- Josh Donaldson – Twins (DK 4700 & FD 3400)
Notes: Ramirez has the splits advantage on Taillon and great career numbers vs. the Yankees. Shaw is another Brewer lefty vs. Arrieta. Bregman is 8 for 14 in his last 4 games against a HR-prone pitcher. Davis is a value option with good history vs. LHP. Donaldson should hit 2nd vs. the worst pitcher on the slate.
- Tim Anderson – White Sox (DK 5400 & FD 4000)
- Francisco Lindor – Mets (DK 4800 & FD 3300)
- Bo Bichette – Blue Jays (DK 5500 & FD 3900)
- Trea Turner – Nationals (DK 5600 & FD 3800)
- Nico Hoerner – Cubs (DK 2100 & FD 2100)
- Niko Goodrum – Tigers (DK 4000 & FD 2500)
Notes: This is a hard position to pay down at with a lack of options. Anderson has at least 1 hit in his last 7 games and 4 multi-hit games in that time. Lindor is the cheaper of the premiere options on DK. Bichette has shown great power vs. LHP. Turner always has massive upside. Hoerner is a punt option on DK but would really like to see his lineup spot higher after reaching base 7 times in the last two games. Goodrum should be leading off vs. a LHP and is a value option on FD.
- Byron Buxton – Twins (DK 5600 & FD 4500)
- Nelson Cruz – Twins (DK 5400 & FD 4100)
- Alex Kirillof & Jake Cave – Twins (DK 2000 & FD 2100)
- Jorge Soler – Royals (DK 3900 & FD 3100)
- Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays (DK 3700 & FD 3000)
- Luis Robert – White Sox (DK 5000 & FD 2800)
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (DK 5700 & FD 4300)
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (DK 6200)
- Jesse Winker – Reds (DK 4500 & FD 3900)
- Eddie Rosario – Indians (DK 4100 & FD 2500)
- Randy Arozarena – Rays (DK 4300 & FD 3300)
- Michael Brantley – Astros (DK 5100 & FD 3200)
- Aaron Hicks – Yankees (DK 3100 & FD 2600)
- Michael Conforto – Mets (DK 4100 & FD 2700)
- Billy McKinney – Brewers (DK 2400 & FD 2200)
Notes: The Twins are the top choices in the OF vs. Crowe. On DK, I will likely use either Cave or Kirillof, depending on who is higher in the order. Soler loves hitting vs. the Tigers, and Fulmer has been awful vs. RHH. Grichuk has a .656 wOBA vs. LHP this season. Robert has 9 hits in his last 5 games. JD probably should be higher vs. a LHP but not sure the game gets played. Acuna would be #1 if the game were going to be 9 innings. Winker has been hot this season and good history vs. Flaherty. McKinney would be a punt option if he hits in the top half of the order again.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Danny Duffy (8800)
1B – Pete Alonso (3700)
OF – Jorge Soler (3100)
OF – Luis Robert (2800)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Danny Duffy (8000)
OF – Jorge Soler (3900)
OF – Alex Kirillof (2000)
2B – Rougned Odor (2700)