Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in today’s DFS MLB Cash Games!
It will be interesting to see what the DFS sites do going forward. DraftKings decided to add the early start games to their main slate, so we will start at 6:30 EST, while FanDuel kept with the traditional 7:00ish EST start times. The bottom line for me is that I would like to see the sites get on the same page. If you play on both sites, it will make things easier when it comes to lineup building. The bigger the slate, the better for building your cash lineups.
DraftKings also made the mistake of including the 1st game of the Minnesota and Oakland doubleheader. It is a game that I would prefer to fade with hitters less attractive on a shorter slate and pitchers who do not stand out. We also have weather to watch for, as the cold in four different cities could be a major problem. The rain is not an issue at least, but just a matter of what the teams are willing to deal with when it comes to the cold.
Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
DFS MLB Lineup Coach – Daily coaching session assisting with all aspects of DFS MLB.
DFS MLB Cheat Sheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low-owned stars.
Core 4 Livestream – Daily Livestream that covers all DFS sports, featuring guests from throughout the Elite Sports Network.
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Tuesday, April 20th
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs – It will be cold with a game-time temperature below 40 degrees. The wind is also going to be blowing in a bit.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers – Light rain and snow is expected throughout the game. They could play the game but with the temperature around 35, it will likely get cancelled. –CANCELLED
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals – This is another game below 40 degrees that will have snow during the day, but that should stop before the game. It has a higher likelihood of getting postponed than Chicago.
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies – There was plenty of snow on Monday in Denver, and it will still be cold for Tuesday so will the field be playable assuming the temperature allows the game to be played.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Missing run lines and/or odds on MIN/OAK, SF/PHI, NYM/CHC, HOU/COL, TB/KC. This is due to either the Doubleheader game or the cold that is expected for several games.
- Los Angeles Angels: -205
- Philadelphia Phillies: -150
- Detroit Tigers: -132
- New York Mets: -130
- Cincinnati Reds: -130
- New York Yankees: -126
- Miami Marlins: -125
Highest Run Expectancy
- Los Angeles Angels – 5.05
- New York Yankees – 4.78
- Washington Nationals – 4.78
- Detroit Tigers – 4.57
- Miami Marlins – 4.51
- Boston Red Sox – 4.41
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Milwaukee Brewers – 3.37
- Texas Rangers – 3.45
- San Diego Padres – 3.63
- Cincinnati Reds – 3.71
- Detroit Tigers – 3.93
Today's Pitchers Grid
Today’s Best Pitchers
1) Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds (DK 6600) – Oh Sh*t, here we go again!! The price is too cheap on DraftKings. The 1st inning in his last outing was awful, but he did settle down the rest of the way. Castillo does have the 3rd lowest xFIP and 4th highest K% rate of the starting pitchers on this slate since last season. The swinging strike rate is still 12.7% despite the less than 20% K rate this season. The Diamondbacks are middle of the road vs. RHP in all categories, but those numbers are only going to get worse, missing some of their best hitters.
2) Chris Paddack, RHP, Padres (DK 10000 & FD 6900) – We see two completely opposite prices on both sites. I have no interest in the DraftKings price, but it feels far too cheap on FanDuel. The Brewers are without Yelich and lost Urias last night, who has not been great all season but was their best hitter recently. Paddack had his best outing of the season in his last start, including getting 9 groundball outs compared to just 1 flyball out. There are still question marks about his struggles the last two years, but I cannot pass up the price on FanDuel.
3) Hyun Jin-Ryu, LHP, Blue Jays (DK 8700 & FD 9700) – There are some challenging hitters vs. LHP for the Red Sox, but Ryu has shown success vs. them in limited AB’s. Ryu has a 3.16 xFIP and 26.1% K rate since last season. There are not a ton of qualified options on this slate, outside of the Top 2, who are too cheap to pass on. Ryu has continued to show elite control and a strong groundball rate.
4) Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers (DK 10800 & FD 10500) – It is hard to find anyone who has pitched as well as Burnes in his first three starts. He has 30 K’s while allowing just 4 hits but has not gone beyond 6 innings in any start. The price tag is expensive, and he faces a team that has the lowest K% rate vs. RHP. It will be interesting to see where the ownership plays out on Burnes with how good he has been but in a tough match-up.
5) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies (DK 9800 & FD 9400) – The Giants have the 4th lowest wOBA and have the highest K% rate vs. RHP (this I was a bit shocked by since it has not been what the team has done on a regular basis in the past). Wheeler has shown an improved K% rate and swinging strike rate so far this season, so hard to tell if that is sustainable based on his past performances. He has shown a great groundball rate and an ability to limit HRs, which makes the HR ball even less likely against a weak Giants lineup.
Pitchers to Target Against
1) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Rangers – 5.70 xFIP, 1.97 HR/9, .370 wOBA vs. RHH
2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Cubs – .368/.424/.533 vs. current Mets
3) Matt Harvey, RHP, Orioles – 4.86 xFIP, 2.77 HR/9, .424 wOBA vs. LHH, .448 wOBA vs. RHH
4) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers – 4.83 xFIP, 2.50 HR/9, .512 wOBA vs. RHH
5) Patrick Corbin, LHP, Nationals – 1.75 HR/9, .400 wOBA vs. RHH, 6 1/3 innings pitched allowing 16 runs, 4 HR’s, 7 BB’s and 12 hits this season
6) Nick Neidert, RHP, Marlins – 5.64 xFIP, .463 wOBA vs. LHH
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight. (click on link above)
Hot Streaks (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
Batter vs. Pitcher
1B – Dominic Smith – Mets, Ryan Zimmerman – Nationals, Brandon Belt – Giants
2B – Jeff McNeil – Mets, Hernan Perez – Nationals
OF – Nelson Cruz – Twins, Joc Pederson – Cubs, Brett Gardner – Yankees, Justin Upton – Angels
For more BvP info, check out our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Yadier Molina – Cardinals (DK 4100)
- Francisco Mejia – Rays (DK 3200)
- Jason Castro – Astros (DK 4500)
- Willson Contreras – Cubs (DK 4800)
Notes: The high-priced options are fine but do not see them worth the money on this slate with none of them in standout spots. Molina has always hit LHP well, and Corbin has been a disaster. Mejia is 5 for his last 12 with a HR against a pitcher who struggles vs. LHH. Castro is not guaranteed to be in the lineup as Maldonado may return but do like him in Coors. Contreras has homered 4 times in his last 4 games.
- Freddie Freeman – Braves (DK 5500)
- Vlad Guerrero – Blue Jays (DK 5300 & FD 3900)
- Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals (DK 5000 & FD 3800)
- Anthony Rizzo – Cubs (DK 4600 & FD 3400)
- Dominic Smith – Mets (DK 4300 & FD 2900)
- Jared Walsh – Angels (DK 4800 & FD 3600)
- Dan Vogelbach – Brewers (DK 2700 & FD 2600)
Notes: The short porch in New York awaits Freeman, who has walked 8 times in his last 4 games, so you know he is seeing the ball well. Guerrero has reached base at least once in each game this season. Goldy has a .440 wOBA vs. LHP since last season. Rizzo is 9 for 18 with 2 HRs & 3 BBs over his last 6 games. He comes a bit cheaper than others. Smith and Walsh both have eligibility in the OF on FD. Vogelbach is a punt option on DK, but do not expect the same results as Sunday.
- Jeff McNeil – Mets (DK 3600 & FD 2700)
- Whit Merrifield – Royals (DK 5400 & FD 3900)
Niko Goodrum – Tigers (DK 3600)
- Brandon Lowe – Rays (DK 4300 & FD 3000)
- Garret Hampson – Rockies (DK 4000 & FD 3500)
- Ryan McMahon – Rockies (DK 5300 & FD 4000)
Notes: Love the Mets vs. Arrieta even in the cold weather, and McNeil gives you cheaper exposure. Whit has started the season great and hits LHP better than RHP. Goodrum has been great vs. LHP over the last two years and is SS eligible, as well. Lowe always brings a high HR chance. Hampson is best suited on DK. McMahon has a .287 ISO at Coors.
- Alex Bregman – Astros (DK 5400 & FD 3500)
- Nolan Arenado – Cardinals (DK 5000 & FD 4000)
Jeimer Candelario – Tigers (DK 3800)
- Kris Bryant – Cubs (DK 4800 & FD 3600)
Philip Evans – Pirates (DK 3900)
- Travis Shaw – Brewers (DK 4100 & FD 2800)
Notes: Bregman should be back from the COVID list and is too cheap on FD. Arenado has always been great vs. LHP. Candelario has been good under the radar vs. LHP. Bryant is the only Cub who has consistently hit at all this season. Evans just hits when he gets to play. Shaw should be priced higher for how good he has been, but lack of ownership has kept his price down.
- Trevor Story – Rockies (DK 5600 & FD 3800)
- Francisco Lindor – Mets (DK 4700 & FD 3400)
- Jazz Chisholm – Marlins (DK 3900)
- Paul DeJong – Cardinals (DK 3700 & FD 2800)
- Carlos Correa – Astros (DK 4800 & FD 3600)
- Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox (DK 5200 & FD 3000)
- Trea Turner – Nationals (DK 5400 & FD 4100)
Notes: Story is too cheap on FD. Lindor is going to start hitting as he has an 8 to 3 BB:K ratio this season. Jazz has been the best hitting SS this season and gets the terrible Matt Harvey. Other than liking the Cardinals, DeJong does not stand out. I know he hit 2 HR’s last night, but his ownership was a lucky break for those who used him. Correa expects to get some of his offensive help back. Bogaerts is too cheap on FD. Turner has the highest potential upside of any player at the position.
- Houston OF – (Alvarez DK 5000 & FD 3500, Brantley DK 4600 & FD 4100, Tucker DK 4300, FD 4000)
- Mets OF – (Conforto DK 3500 & FD 2800, Nimmo DK 3500 & FD 3100, Smith DK 4400 & FD 2900)
- Bryce Harper – Phillies (DK 5600 & FD 4300)
- Mike Trout – Angels (DK 6100 & FD 4500)
- Randal Grichuk – Blue Jays (DK 3800 & FD 2800)
- Corey Dickerson – Marlins (DK 3100)
- DJ Stewart – Orioles (DK 2800)
- Austin Meadows – Rays (DK 4100 & FD 3100)
- Charlie Blackmon – Rockies (DK 5200 & FD 3600)
- Joc Pederson – Cubs (DK 3500 & FD 2400)
- Dylan Carlson – Cardinals (DK 3100 & FD 3200)
- Juan Soto – Nationals (DK 5900 & FD 4200)
- Ronald Acuna – Braves (DK 6000)
- JD Martinez – Red Sox (DK 5800 & FD 4400)
- Adam Duvall – Marlins (DK 4200)
Notes: The OF prices seem to vary greatly depending on the site. Alvarez is expected to return from the COVID list and is underpriced on FD. Brantley and Tucker are far more playable on DK. The Mets all have nice prices on both sites, and they are listed in order of preference. Harper is the best high-priced guy who appears to be locked in with back-to-back 3 hit games. Trout is always a great play. Grichuk has great numbers vs. LHP and is priced affordably on both sites. Dickerson and Stewart are DK-only values. Carlson would be a DK-only play. Acuna is likely to be out. If he does play, you cannot ignore the tear he is on.
DFS MLB Core 4
FANDUEL CORE 4
P – Chris Paddack – Padres (6900)
OF – Bryce Harper (4300)
2B – Jeff McNeil – Mets (2700)
OF – Michael Conforto – Mets (2800)
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
SP1 – Luis Castillo – Reds (6600)
OF – Michael Conforto – Mets (3500)
2B – Jeff McNeil – Mets (3600)
OF – Bryce Harper – Phillies (5600)