Welcome to Duke’s DFS EPL Preview for Friday and Saturday…
I’m now seeing the world through new eyes. That won’t change my day-to-day analysis of upcoming soccer slates but will certainly provide more incentive to win some freaking money! Gotta pay for this baby somehow. AND this article is going live from a hospital so it will be a little shorter than usual.
Let’s head to the desert…
EPL VEGAS LINES
FRI – 3PM
- Wolves +155 | 2.5 (+110o/-130u)
- Leicester +190
- DRAW +220
SAT – 7:30AM
- Southampton -130 | 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)
- Burnley +380
- DRAW +280
SAT – 12:30PM
- Norwich City +900 | 3 (-125o/+105u)
- Liverpool -375
- DRAW +525
DFS EPL PREVIEW | GAME THOUGHTS
Friday game here. No separate article but wanted to mention a few thoughts. Their first game was a 0-0 draw, and outside of their game with Chelsea, they haven’t lost a game by more than one to the top half of the table. I do expect this to be a close affair. Low total here and Wolves at home have an interesting trend.
Their games have featured both teams scoring in 10 of 12.
For the showdown slate, I don’t mind Moutinho at the CPT spot in cash with Maddison, Vardy and then a string of WOL players. They are where the punt value is at the moment. Should Demarai Gray get a start, he’s in play.
Southampton have been one of the better teams since the Christmas break but conceded three and four goals to Wolves and Liverpool. The fact remains, they are a bottom half of the table roster. Burnley are only two places above them in 11th. They’ve performed surprisingly well against teams around their level away. A draw would not be surprising. Reminder, Burnley won the home leg 3-0, but it was the first game of the season. 1-1 draw is my best guess.
Can you imagine the scene if Norwich were the first team in England to beat Liverpool? Me neither. Norwich do score goals at home; it’s just not usually enough to grab points. The high total and teams involved mean we will need ownership from this match. If you go all the way back to week one, you might remember this match. I do, in particular, because Norwich were very much in this match. Not on the scoresheet – that was a 4-1 walk away win – but on the pitch. They had 43% of the ball, which is much higher than most Pool opponents. They also had several big chances where Alisson was needed before he had to be subbed off. Liverpool win, but this game will be fun.
DFS EPL PICKS
****I likely will NOT make it into the chat. If I do, it will be a stop in to say hi and answer a few questions and then bouncing. Just FYI****
Salah – LIV – $11.5k
Expensive but best goal odds on biggest favorite. No Mane potential as well, which benefits Salah.
Pukki – NOR – $5.5k
Don’t want a ton of NOR but fine.
Oxlade-Chamberlain – LIV – $8k
Really should be 2, but for the price, I have these two about even with points.
Origi – LIV – $9k
A little pricey for the potential output but will have space with Salah getting so much attention.
Ings – SOU – $7.8k
Prefer him to Chris Wood. Focusing mostly on LIV game at the F position.
Armstrong – SOU – $4.8k
When he gets the start, he’s been producing. In his last four starts, he’s fired six, one, three and three shots.
Duda – NOR – $6.2k
I’m interested to see how the set pieces play out. He was the man with no Buendia who was back. Don’t expect a repeat performance of the NEW game.
Westwood – BUR – $5.1k
Tends to better at H v A and they are away here. Set pieces.
Henderson – LIV – $6.6k
Is that where we are? Playing Jordan Henderson at $6.6k? I guess so. Ride the hot hand in a ++++ matchup.
Walker-Peters – SOU – $4.8k
Should/Could make his debut for SOU in their wingback system where he’ll thrive. If freaking Cedric Soares was viable in this system….
Van Dijk – LIV – $4.7k
Nearly $5k for a CB is insane, but we want a lot of LIV on the two-game slate. I don’t love NOR defending on set pieces. Set piece equity is OK.
Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $8.3k
If you are spending down at M and 1 F spot, then he is in play. I can make the argument against in GPP for sure…cash we’ll see.
Bertrand – SOU – $4.4k
While I think KWP will start, I’m pretty damn sure Bertrand will. He’s been steadily producing as SOU figure out the right wing back position. Five, six, three and four crosses.
Good luck! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!