Welcome to Duke’s DFS EPL Preview for New Year’s Day…
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
What a year for us here in the soccer package. We had several five-figure winners this year. Not bad for $150 or whatever this baby costs! Let’s keep it rolling into 2020.
Split slate once again but more of a balanced look: (3) 10am games and (3) 12:30 games.
To the desert…
EPL VEGAS LINES
- NEW +475 | 2.5 (-120o/EVENu)
- LEI -180
- DRAW +330
- SOU +235 | 3 (+115o/-140u)
- TOT +110
- DRAW +255
- WAT +225 | 2.5 (+110o/-130u)
- WOL +125
- DRAW +235
- MCI -375 | 3.5 (-115o/-105u)
- EVE +950
- DRAW +525
- NOR +135 | 2.5 (+105o/-125u)
- CP +205
- DRAW +240
- WH -105 | 3 (+115o/-140u)
- BOU +275
- DRAW +275
DFS EPL PREVIEW | GAME THOUGHTS
NEW: Saint-Maxim, Lascelles, Ritchie, Ki,
Dummett = OUT; Joelinton, Lejeune, Clark, Schar = Q
This is all Leicester. Newcastle has been better at home, conceding only 0.90 goals per game, but Leicester was able to beat West Ham with essentially a second team and get Manuel Pelligrini fired in the process. Brendan Rodgers is pushing all the right buttons and creating tons of chances for his teams.
Vardy and Maddison being rested is a huge boost to their chances in this game. The injury list for Newcastle hurts their chances. There is a chance Steve Bruce simply punts this game, but it’s not like they are so high in the table that they can afford to do that. Games against Wolves and Chelsea are next.
SOU: Shane Long = OUT
TOT: Lloris, Son, Rose, Davies = OUT
Southampton kind of stink at home, huh? They were down 1-0 to Palace before the Ings equalizer. As a matter of fact, they haven’t kept a clean sheet at home this season. They’ve scored in every match but two this season.
Tottenham and freaking Jose Mourinho cost me over four units on the 28th. Are they dead to me? They should be, but they can’t be. I need to place more bets, and TOT concedes goals so often, I’m just going to hit both teams to score until he’s fired. Rant over…
I actually like them to win here again, but with no Son, they lose a ton of creativity in the final third. It’s amazing how important he is to the squad. For DFS, we’ll have a few spots to attack here.
WAT: Cleverly, Janmaat, Holebas,
Mariappa, Prodl = OUT;
Hughes, Cathcart = Q
WOL: Gibbs-White, Boly = OUT; Cutrone = Q
How about this new Watford? Nigel Pearson has come in and solidified the team at the back. A 2-0 shut out of United and 3-0 shut out of Villa both came at home, where this game will take place as well. Deeney is finding himself back on the scoresheet. Sarr is coming into his own. The injuries at the back are worrisome, but they continue to produce.
Wolves are coming off back-to-back games against City and Liverpool. Not an easy stretch by any means, and even though they rotated the squad against Liverpool, they hung in until the end. Now, in saying that, they were absolutely battered in the first half and could have been down 3-0.
The initial inclination is to say Wolves win here, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. Will both teams score? Yes.
MCI: Laporte, Sane = OUT
EVE: Iwobi, Gomes = OUT; Schneiderlin = 75%
Let me say this…City is back. Yes, they lost to Wolves but were down to 10 men for 80 minutes and nearly won the game, up 2-0 in the second half. They showed well against Sheffield winning 2-0 and especially at home, have been dominant late in the year.
Everton is getting results, but just looking at their roster, they don’t have top 6 talent. Calver-Lewin is starting to find the back of the net, which is positive, but with Stones back and Otamendi playing more, Pep is starting to figure some things out defensively.
City with the W.
CP: Townsend, Schlupp, Cahill, Ward,
Benteke, van Aanholt, Dann = OUT;
Kelly = 50%
Will Norwich ever win a game? They had every chance in the world to grab the three points v Tottenham and couldn’t get it done. However, I’m 99% sure pre-game if you offered them a point they would take it.
Palace is about as solid as they get, but that is a ton of talent on the sidelines. When was the last time they played a quality side? November 23rd by my count v Liverpool. They’ve played Burnley, Bournemouth, Watford, Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham and Southampton. Of course, they’ll take points from that run but this seems like a game that will end in a draw.
Zaha is playing well of late, as is Ayew but something like 1-1 feels right.
WH: Wilshere, Yarmolenko = OUT
BOU: Ake, Smith, Groeneveld, Daniels, Stacey,
Kelly, Brooks = OUT; King = 25%
West Ham will play their first game under their new manager, David Moyes. He’s known for defensive solidity and less than stellar attacking play. I don’t see that changing after a few training sessions with a new group of players. This is a wait and see approach.
Bournemouth stink and are injured. Your guess is as good as mind. Still waiting on that Bournemouth whisperer. Wilson should draw the start with King banged up. Their backline will be a patch job.
DFS EPL PICKS
Sigurdsson – EVE – $6.5k
The matchup is a negative one, but the new system is a big positive.
Ings – SOU – $7.5k
CAN’T STOP SCORING. TOT can’t’ stop conceding. You do the math.
Aguero – MCI – $9.6k
Back in the first 11 and back to scoring goals. Price is high, but Everton still has issues at the back.
Kane – TOT – $8.9k
Just a level below Aguero, but I still like him to be amongst the goals.
Pukki – NOR – $6k
I tend to like this range for F this week, and while it’s concerning he wasn’t able to get off a shot v TOT, I do like Norwich to attack in this game.
Sterling – MCI – $9.4k
Do I go him or Traore? For the relatively low savings, it’s tough to say, but I’m leaning Sterling. City is the home fav, and while Traore was mostly rested last game, he has a lot of minutes on his legs of late.
De Bruyne – MCI – $10.9k
Seems like the obvious play. City on the front foot and De Bruyne on fire.
Buendia – NOR – $8.1k
Just ride it, man. Much prefer him for the savings from Maddison. Similar floor and ceiling.
Maddison – LEI – $9.7k
He was rested so it’s tempting, but I’m paying the extra for KDB. Both seem unlikely with the salary involved. I expect both City and Leicester to win so the matchups are good.
Ward-Prowse – SOU – $7.6k
Floor points, even in a meh matchup. Tot is conceding goals. Good to pair with Ings for upside as well.
Shelvey – NEW – $6.6k
Shots + crosses. Under $7k
H Wilson – BOU – $6.2k
Back in the mix and really needed. Again, we don’t know what to expect from West Ham, but they’ve been shit of late.
Gray – LEI – $4.8k
He just played 83 minutes and looked great. Does he get another start? That’s the question. If he does, he’s very much in play.
Sessegnon – TOT – $4.3k
Locked into that LW position with no Son. If he gets the start again, I’m fine going here in cash and GPP.
Rico – BOU – $5.2k
Away but pretty solid play. Not first choice but in the pool.
Sidibe – EVE – $4.7k
Usable if he’s at RM. Not sure I want to go there if he’s at RB. Wait for team news.
Cresswell – WH – $4.5k
Moyes loves the cross and so does Cresswell.
Jonny – WOL – $4.2k
Solid. Not the upside I’m looking for in GPP.
Otamendi – MCI – $3.9k
Always a threat on set pieces.
Bertrand – SOU – $3.9k
Usable. Depending on the system, we may be all in.
- Schmeichel – LEI – $5.6k
- Fabianksi – WH – $5.3k
- Krul – NOR – $4.9k
- Foster – WAT – $4.6k
- Ederson – MCI – $5.9
- Pickford – EVE – $3.7k
Good luck! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!