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DFS EPL Advice from the Duke!!!
Mean, I’m freaking PUMPED for this 6 game DFS slate coming up on Saturday morning. While it’s fun to have massive favorites that win 8-0, I’d rather play players from multiple teams vs. trying to capture the 2 or 3 must-have pieces from one huge favorite. KDB, B Silva and Mahrez were the big winners from last Saturday’s slate. This slate is much more interesting.
For starters, we have 6 games. That’s a good set of games to choose from compared to last week’s 4. What’s super interesting to me though are the Vegas lines. We have 3 HUGE favorites and one of them might surprise you.
- SHU +850 | 3 (EVENo/-120u)
- LIV -280
- DRAW +425
- BOU +150 | 3 (-105o/-115u)
- WH +170
- DRAW +235
- AVL +140 | 2.5 (-105o/-115u)
- BUR +200
- DRAW +230
- CHE -235 | 3 (+110o/-130u)
- BHA +650
- DRAW +375
- CP -109 | 2.5 (-140o/+115u)
- NOR +295 (Bovada)
- DRAW +275
- TOT -245 | 3 (EVENo/-120u)
- SOU +700
- DRAW +275
- WOL -110 | 2.5 (+105o/-125u)
- WAT +335
- DRAW +250
- EVE +800 | 3 (-140o/+115u)
- MCI -335
- DRAW +450
Bournemouth sit in 6th (SIXTH!) in the table having won their last 2 games. To further hammer home the point that we never know what we are going to get from Bournemouth just take a look at the form table. From their last 5 games, they have 3 wins and 2 losses, good for 9 points. Excellent, really. However, they’ve both scored and conceded 10 goals for a 0 goal differential in that time. Therein lies the problem with handicapping this damn team. What I love about Eddie Howe is that seemingly he’s figured out that draws don’t do a ton for you in the long run. He’s having a go. Win or lose, these games will be exciting.
West Ham sit 5th (FIFTH!) coming off 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5. The opening slaughtering to City was a disheartening start but they’ve more than made up for the poor start. Basically a dominant win last time out against Man United last game will have the Hammers looking for all 3 points from the game. They have by far the best goal differential over their last 5 at +6 and have taken 11 points. Significant numbers, for sure.
This is going to be one hell of a game and I do expect goals. With a total sitting at 3 and slight juice on the over, Vegas agrees. This is a sneaky spot to find some winners in DFS. Bournemouth have scored AND conceded in all 6 of their Premier League games to date. Game stack? We’ll see with team news.
Villa are in 18th at the moment, and our bottom of the table by Christmas ticket is looking pretty tasty. Here’s the tough part with Villa. A bit like Fulham last year, they spent heavily in the offseason with the goal of building for a long run in the Prem. It just doesn’t work like that. Honestly, the Wolves route makes much more sense. Overspend in the Championship so that when you get to the Prem the majority of your team is in place. For Villa, the new pieces are starting to gel slowly but surely. They’ve been competitive in every home game they’ve played with a win over Everton and a draw to West Ham in the books. This has to be seen as an opportunity for points.
Burnley are back to Burnley football. Get results at home and eke out draws on the road. Unfortunately for Burnley, this game is on the road but against newly promoted and currently in the relegation zone Villa. Chris Wood was the man last week to bag the brace but their system is clearly working. There they sit in the top half again 6 games into the season. Talent-wise, surely they aren’t a top 10 team but they are there year in and year out. They’ve scored and conceded in each of their 3 away games to date drawing 2 and losing 1. This will be a tight affair and I like the under here. Outside of 1 or 2 players, I can’t see us doing much here for DFS.
Reality set in for Chelsea last week against Liverpool. They just aren’t quite there yet. I do think they have enough talent for a top 6 spot and maybe even challenge for the top 4, but they aren’t on City or Liverpool’s level yet. It was a great test for the players and should give them confidence heading into this home match against Brighton.
Oddly enough, Chelsea’s average goals per game drop at home from 2.67 on the road, a genuinely ridiculous record, to 1.33 goals for. They are conceding like crazy as well with a 1.66 goals-against average. I love the total in this game even at 3. Chelsea will bag at least 2 here and Brighton themselves will bag on as well. That gets us our money back, and if Chelsea push for a 3rd late, we hit the over. When you concede 2 to Sheffield at your own Stadium, you are vulnerable at the back…
Brighton started fast and have been treading water since. Three draws and 0 wins from their last 5 is much more like it for Graham Potter’s men who started like gangbusters. Since GW1, Brighton have scored 2 and conceded 8. Trossard is hurt and likely to miss. The big man Glen Murray has been on the periphery. They are truly going through a transition period that perhaps is necessary but sure to be bumpy. For many many reasons, I just hate this game for Brighton. This is not the spot for them to bounce back. They don’t have the defensive chops to keep the game close and should simply try to defend by attacking. “We’ll see what they do here” – Booger McFarland
Palace should stay up this year. That’s the good news. The bad news? I don’t know that I’ve been ‘impressed’ with their play in any of their games to date, including their wins over United and Villa. Like they are prone to do, they will have purple patches where they’ll pick up points and have down patches where they can’t score the goals. They are genuinely missing a killer #9 from being a top half squad competing for Europe. I’m extremely interested to see how they set up as a home favorite against the adventurous Canaries here.
Norwich are/were the darlings of the first 5 weeks. They beat frickin Man City for christ’s sake. However, they’ve been held scoreless in 2 of their last 3, both games on the road. If they were playing anyone else, I’d be extremely worried about them grabbing a point but the Palace attack just doesn’t scare me. I don’t hate this spot for Norwich. They’ve scored 8 in their last 5. They’ve conceded 10 as well. This is by no means a stand or all in spot for Norwich but I’ll have some stabs.
These 2 teams split their games last yeah with Tottenham winning at home 3-1 and Southampton winning 2-1 at their place. Soooo…goals? Yep! Kane is super expensive but this seems like a place where we need exposure to the goal scorers from Tottenham. They are in shambles a bit at the moment, jumping out to early leads in the Champions League and Prem last week before allowing their opponents back in. Olympiakos came back and tied Spurs and of course, Leicester overtook them to take home the W and another loss for Spurs, 1-2. It would be a massive statement for Spurs to win this game emphatically to reassure the fans that all is well.
Southampton got smashed by Bournemouth, which caught me by surprise a bit. They had taken 7 points from their previous three games. How did they get smashed? Well, take a closer look at the opponents. Brighton away and they take all 3 points. Good result. Man United at home, they tied 1-1. Decent result, but this isn’t the United of old. They then beat Sheffield away 1-0. Another good result, but it’s Sheffield. They haven’t been able to get it done against the big boys. Last season, they picked up just 1 point from 8 games against the top 8 on the road.
The toilet bowl. Seriously, throw out the analysis in this game. Both teams have lost their way. However, Watford aren’t as bad as they looked last weekend and had chances to score. Wolves have scored 7 goals in their last 5 but oddly enough have conceded 11.
While it’s not saying much, Wolves have been better at home and they haven’t had the easiest start to the season. Leicester are a top side this year. United at home, they drew. Burnley are always a tough out. Everton away was perhaps their worst performance of the year, and they rightly lost that match. Chelsea at home was a slugfest with 7 goals, and they came out on the wrong side. Finally, they drew Palace away, which is likely a decent little result. However, they need wins. It should start here with the match against Watford. The new system with Doherty back in at wing back and Traore pushed forward provided a bit of a spark they need.
DFS EPL ADVICE
For those new around here, these are ranked from first listed to last listed based on how much I like the player.
Kane – TOT – $10.9k
The argument is easy here. His goal scoring odds are insane. They are huge favorites. Southampton are conceding goals. In truth, Southampton haven’t been that bad and this is really expensive considering the totals on other games. He’s in play for cash to fill a forward spot but I don’t know that I’ll get up here until we have team news.
Abraham – CHE – $8.4k
I love Tammy Abraham in this game. I could easily see a 2 goal performance out of him. This game has the highest disparity on goal differential for the competing teams over the last 5 games (9). Chelsea are -235 favorites at home in a total that continues to rise. He’s my #1 GPP F on the slate.
C Wilson – BOU – $7.8k
Serious question. What is the difference between Pukki and C Wilson this week? For the extra $400, I prefer the slight home favorite. Goals in 3 straight including a brace sandwiched in the middle. They score and concede. Callum needs to find the back of the net.
Gross – BHA – $5.6k
I get they are big underdogs, but this is Chelsea 2019 we are talking about. This ain’t Jose’s park the bus Chelsea. Chelsea have conceded 9 goals over their last 5 games, and Brighton will get forward. This is a big opportunity in cash at this price.
Pukki – NOR – $8.2k
Look, I gave this play out on the Talking Soccer Podcast, but you know I save the best stuff for you guys. The 2 listed above are ahead of Pukki in my rankings, but even on the road as a dog, he is very live. For 1, his ownership will be ½ if not a third of Abraham’s. The upside is slightly lower but the floor is approximately the same.
McNeil – BUR – $7k
DK keeps putting him in this range, and I keep playing him. This is a cash staple here. He does have a Q next to his leg, which might scare some people off him. But it was a dead leg, not an ankle knee so he should be fine for Saturday. The assist boosted him last week, but he finds a way. CASH
Traore – WOL – $6.7k
Let’s see where he lines up. At one of the attacking wide players? This price is fine for his upside. At one of the wingback roles? PASS. A cash option if he does play forward, believe it or not.
Heung-Min – TOT – $9.4k
I simply don’t like playing Son when Kane is healthy. It bit me in the ass with his two-goal, stunning performance against Crystal Palace, but I can’t justify spending this much cash on a player who’s so inconsistent. FADE in cash. In the player pool for GPP but not on my main team.
Fraser – BOU – $7.9k
It will be interesting to see him back in the starting 11 and how that changes the set piece situation. The price is OK from a cash perspective. I’d rather go with others in GPP. We love the floor for Fraser as a home favorite.
F Anderson – WH – $8.4k
I gotta have a piece of this West Ham attack against Bournemouth and while I considered Yarmalenko, especially after this goal, this is the piece I want most. He’s yet to have a true ceiling game, but that still hasn’t managed to keep his price down. Instead, he’s been uber consistent with 4 straight games in double figures. We need a goal to justify this price. GPP only
Mount – CHE – $9k
DAMN, this price is up there and might actually keep me off him but I prefer Mason to Eriksen, as you can see. They are huge favorites at home in a high total and he has set piece equity. Those are the good things. The bad? He’s been incredibly inconsistent of late, and I’m wondering if the sparkle in his game is starting to dim. For what should be a cash game lock, I’m liking him more for GPP.
Grealish – AVL – $6.8k
Do I love Jack Grealish here? No. I do like him though for under $7k. I’d take McGinn in tournaments, but for cash, Grealish is my man.
Cleverly – WAT – $4.8k
Here is your cheap cash option. I don’t love the upside of Cleverly so he’s cash only. Much better matchup this week and hopefully everyone looks at his log against City and forgets about him. Solid play in this matchup with Wolves.
Eriksen – TOT – $9.8k
Yes, he’s a good play, but are you paying that? To pay that, you aren’t playing Kane. I can make the argument in cash, but frankly, his best games are when Tottenham are playing from behind. He’s mostly a fade for me.
Boufal – SOU – $4.7k
He’s actually getting damn near 90 minutes, which was always my issue with him. Tough matchup and they’ll be playing on the break mostly, not in possession. That suits his style of play. He’s a hell of a 1v1 player and could exploit the back line if given the chance.
Alli – TOT – $6.3k
Let’s head to the other side of the field. If this man gets a start, it’s looking like he’ll make my main GPP lineup. The price and goal-scoring odds just add up to success. His form is questionable, and that should keep his ownership lower. A differentiator
Ward-Prowse – $5.4k
This feels like a trap. Set pieces. On Penalties. Just on the road in a tough matchup. I have 2 of his teammates listed because they are simply priced so low. Probably the safest of the 3.
Hojbjerg – SOU – $4k
Just a quick work here. This is simply too cheap. His floor is about 6. I might even get here in cash if I’m paying up everywhere else. He’s in my pool.
Walker-Peters – TOT – $5.6k / Aurier – TOT – $5.4k
I really like Aurier in this matchup but feel like Walker-Peters will get the nod. The pricing fits in some builds, and honestly, they have the floor to justify the price. Defenders seem oddly thin with players I want to play as well.
Rico – BOU – $5.3k
Gave him out on the pod but Ryan Fraser will be the interesting piece. Rico has excelled with Fraser out.
Holebas – WAT – $4k
Strictly a price play because he’s been ass for the better part of a year. He has his moments, and Watford has struggled to score from open play. Enter Holebas.
Tomori – CHE – $3.8k
This man hit a banger of a goal so clearly he’s capable. CS upside / Price play
Ake – BOU – $3.7k
This game could have fireworks. West Ham have been oddly organized from open play, only conceding 2 goals in their last 5 games. Perhaps a set piece gets it done. Ake always finds the end of crosses.
Bertrand – SOU – $3.7k
IF he starts, how do you not play Bertrand at this price? I know, I know, Tottenham will have the ball for 65% of the game. He needs 3 crosses, an interception and 2 tackles to get home here. Very doable.
- Pope – BUR – $4.6k
- Patricio – WOL – $5.4k
- Heaton – AVL – $4.9k
- Foster – WAT – $4.1k
Follow along with our FPL series!