Daytona 500 DFS Picks | NASCAR Cup Series

Trevor Marcotte gets you ready for the Daytona 500 DFS Slate!
Top NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel

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DAYTONA 500 QUICK FACTS

• Daytona International Speedway
• Sunday 2/14/2021 – 2:30 PM
• 2.5-mile Paved Track

Here it is. Finally time. NASCAR 2021!! This is the Super Bowl of NASCAR. Let me warn you now; in the last few laps, everything will change. So make sure you’re strapped in for the end of the race.  

“The Big One” – A wreck that takes out a large number of drivers. This is due to the high speed and how close the cars run at a superspeedway……Get ready, it will happen. Not a question of if……but when. If your drivers can avoid it, you could be in good shape. If not…………….Sorry! This wreck typically happens at the end of the race as drivers get more aggressive.  

Alright……..let’s do this!!

Last Race Notables: William Byron won

• Laps Led – Joey Logano: 36, Kyle Busch: 31, Byron: 24, Daniel Suárez: 19, Erik Jones 15, Martin Truex Jr.: 14 
• Start/Finish – Chase Elliott 27/2, Bubba Wallace 21/5, Brendan Gaughan 40/6, JH Nemechek 24/11, Christopher Bell 23/13, Michael McDowell 26/14, Brennan Poole 32/15, Ross Chastain 36/16, Quin Houff 34/23, Timmy Hill 35/24

NASCAR DFS PROCESS

Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers to target, based on the numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out the final DFS picks article (which you’re reading) with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.

I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab and my cheat sheet. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.

Point Scoring

Drivers will accumulate points as follows:

DK Scoring

• Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20^th, finish 10^th = 10 pts)
• Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
• Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
• Finishing Position Scoring (Winner 46 pts, 2^nd 42 pts, 3^rd 41, 4^th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)

FD Scoring

• 0.1 PTs for each lap completed
• Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20^th, finish 10^th = 5 pts)
• Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
• Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
• Finishing Position Scoring (Winner 43 pts, 2^nd 40 pts, 3^rd 38, 4^th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)

Track Stats

Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.

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DAYTONA 500 DFS PICKS

Note: I will be going with many lineups that have the strategy of picking two drivers who can win as well as a bunch of guys starting in the back who will avoid “The Big One” and finish well because of it. Leaving money on the table here is not a big deal at all……any amount!

Top Tier

Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – Starting 25^th. Defending 500 champ for the past two years. Running fast. As good a pick as any to win and make it back-to-back-to-back. Not a great starting position, which makes me like him even more.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – Starting 24^th. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s and a win here at Daytona. Can you say, first-time winner? On his bucket list to win the 500. He has been all over the place. Lot’s of upside here starting so far back.

Chase Elliott ($10,300) – Starting 12^th. Coming off a championship, he finished 2^nd here at Daytona last time out. Great team. It is good to be Chase! Looking for a hot start to 2021!

Ryan Blaney ($10,000) – Starting 14^th. 6^th and 2^nd in his last two here at Daytona. I think this year is a big breakout year for Blaney. Multiple wins and fast every week. It starts on Sunday!

Mid-Tier

Alex Bowman ($8,900) – Starting 1^st. Starting on the pole, I expect him to lead some laps here. Bowman finished 7^th last time at Daytona. Staying out of the big one, he should be in the running for the W at the end.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300) – Starting 26^th. Some big names with not great starting positions. Truex is one of them. A threat to win at any track. Five top 10’s and three top 5’s here at Daytona. He finished 4^th last time here.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900) – Starting 23^rd. Has three top 10’s here. DiBenedetto finished 12^th, 19^th and 8^th in his last three here.  

Kyle Busch ($9,500) – Starting 10^th. Nine top 10’s, eight top 5’s and a win here. He has been all over the place at Daytona. Battled a bunch of not so great luck last year. That changes this year, and it started with winning the clash earlier this week on a last-lap wreck.

Sleepers

Chris Buescher ($6,900) – Starting 22^nd. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s. 9^th and 3^rd last year at Daytona. I expect another solid run on Sunday for Chris.

Erik Jones ($7,300) – Starting 31^st. Team change for Jones this year. Downgrade, but that shouldn’t matter here at Daytona. These superspeedways have a way of evening things out a bit. Starting towards the back makes Jones a great pick and opportunity at a solid run. Three top 10’s, two top 5’s and a win here at Daytona.

Tyler Reddick ($7,100) – Starting 29^th. Let’s see if this young gun has learned anything at these superspeedways. He has wrecked in all three races here. I fully expect some adjustments here for Reddick. He is too good not to. Risk here, but I like it.

Austin Cindric ($6,100) – Starting 39^th. Bargain bin on Team Penske on Sunday. Starting position and great team play for a young guy who can drive a bit. Again some risk here, but I like it.

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DAYTONA 500 PICKS TO WIN

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney
• Kyle Busch
• Sleeper – None

As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31.