Michigan. This is a 200 lap event…
Consumers Energy 400 DFS Breakdown
- Michigan International Speedway
- Sunday 8/11/19 – 3:00 PM
- 2 mile
Last Race Notables: Joey Logano won.
- Laps Led – Logano: 163 laps, Harvick: 15
- Start/Finish – Truex 16/3, Kyle Busch 15/5, Bowman 20/10, Buescher 31/16, DiBenedetto 29/21, Lajoie 32/23
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led pts this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
CONSUMERS ENERGY 400 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($12,400) – Starting 22nd. BEAST. Every week a threat to win and dominate!!
Joey Logano ($10,200) – Starting 8th. Really dominated this race earlier in the year, leading 163 laps. Finished 1st, 10th and 7th in his last three here. 15 top 10’s, six top 5’s and three career wins here at Michigan.
Kevin Harvick ($11,800) – Starting 2nd. 18 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s and two wins here at Michigan. Finished 3rd here already earlier in the year.
Martin Truex ($11,300) – Starting 15th. Lots of upside here. Solid play starting 15th, potential to win in a Gibbs car. 10 top 10’s and seven top 5’s. I like a solid finish and consider him a Cash play.
Kyle Larson ($8,300) – Starting 17th. In 11 races here at Michigan, Larson has five top 10’s, four top 5’s and three wins. Finished 14th here earlier in the year. Don’t really know what to expect here from Larson this weekend, as he has been very inconsistent this year. GPP, but I like him.
Kurt Busch ($8,900) – Starting 13th. Finished 2nd, 6th and 3rd last year here at Michigan. 14 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and three wins here. Kurt seems like a nice safe play with some upside here. Will be overweight on him……..Hopefully.
Clint Bowyer ($8,700) – Starting 5th. My dark horse this weekend. Hopefully low owned, due for some good racing luck at a track he has run well. GPP here, but I am all over him. 12 top 10’s, two top 5’s and a win here at Michigan.
Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Starting 6th. Coming off a W. Elliot has been good here. Six top 10’s and three top 5’s in seven races here. Cash game good!
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,600) – Starting 27th. Four top 10’s out of his last seven races. Not too shabby at his price point. Matt is having a career year, and I think it continues this weekend at Michigan. Finished 24th here earlier in the year.
Daniel Hemric ($6,400) – Starting 38th. Finished 12th in his only race here earlier in the year. Started 11th in that contest. Always risk with Hemric, and I will have some shares.
Austin Dillon ($7,100) – Starting 37th. Him and Hendric may be the chalk, but good chalk. Fast car penalized to the back. May need them to win. GPP and Cash. Not all in, but will have significant shares. Solid cash.
Paul Menard ($6,900) – Starting 9th. Playoff push. Menard has some real decent finishes here at Michigan: 13th, 16th and 5th in his last three here.
CONSUMERS ENERGY 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick
- Sleeper – Erik Jones
CONSUMERS ENERGY 400 PROP BETS
- Kyle Busch over Truex
- Kyle Busch over Logano
- Harvick over Kes
- Larson over Elliott
- Larson over Kurt Busch
- Jones over Bowyer
- Bowyer over Blaney
- Jones over Blaney
- Byron over Bowman
Drivers to go over DK scoring
Drivers to go under DK scoring
- Truex Jr.
Last week’s Go Bowling at The Glen results
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.