Each week on Wednesday, Ray Flowers will break down the quarterback position. There are a handful of signal callers who you always can feel confident in starting. We know the names. At the other end of the spectrum, there are a handful of quarterbacks you should never be starting. We know that as well. It’s the twenty quarterbacks in the middle that really matter. Ray will review the entire position each week, letting you know which quarterbacks should be started and/or avoided on a weekly basis…
Each week on Wednesday, Ray Flowers will break down the quarterback position. There are a handful of signal callers who you always can feel confident in starting. We know the names. At the other end of the spectrum, there are a handful of quarterbacks you should never be starting. We know that as well. It’s the twenty quarterbacks in the middle that really matter. Ray will review the entire position each week, letting you know which quarterbacks should be started and/or avoided on a weekly basis.
Regular Season Numbers
NOTE: Players are listed in the tables in order of their weekly ranking (#1 is the best play of the week), so to find out how they are being profiled for the week, check out the order they are listed in the tables. The numbers listed for the quarterbacks are their per game averages.
*To see the odds for game action this week, be sure to visit our NFL Odds Page.
**DEF Rank: The lower the number, the better the matchup (#1 is the best matchup while #32 is the worst).
***DEF vs. QB: The lower the number, the better the matchup (#1 is the best matchup while #32 is the worst).
*****All the “best/worst” stuff below is from Pro Football Focus.
******DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.
*******DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average. The lower the number, the better the defense and the worse the outlook for the signal caller.
There will be a lunar eclipse this weekend. There will be a super blood wolf moon. Oddness could ensure this week.
Drew Brees (LAR) – Weather will not be an issue. Brees was solid last week hitting on 74 percent of his 38 passes for 301 yards and two scores. That level of production was actually slightly below the 322-3 that he averaged at home during the regular season. Back in Week 9, these two teams met in the Superdome and Brees had his way with the Rams going for 363 yards and four passing scores. The Saints didn’t allow an Aaron Donald sack in the last matchup, and that was a huge key. Marcus Peters struggled in the matchup with Michael Thomas, but Aqib Talib will likely see a lot of Thomas this week (Talib was on the IR last time). The Saints welcomed back Ted Ginn, and he was on the IR in the earlier matchup as well, and his field-stretching talent will cause the Rams to pay attention to him on every route run. The Rams were third in turnovers forced (30) but Brees usually does a very good job holding down the turnovers which pretty much mitigates that point of the discussion to a neutral position.
Patrick Mahomes (NE) – Weather could be a huge issue. It could be as cold as below zero at kickoff which might be the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history. In the two regular season games he played under 40 degrees, Mahomes had a 98.8 QB Rating with an average of 310 yards and two scores an outing. Mahomes failed to throw for a score last week, just the second time this season that has happened and just the third time in 17 outings that he failed to toss at least two scores (he was picked off twice in the Week matchup, but he also threw for 352 yards and four scores). He did welcome back a seemingly healthy Sammy Watkins, and that adds another dimension to the offense. Stephen Gilmore has had a great season helping the Pats to the second best PFF pass coverage grade. The Pats were easier to beat on the road this season (91.1) seeing their home QB Rating drop about 15 points (76.1). The Pats also allowed 1.5 yards more per pass attempt on the road. The Pats held Travis Kelce in check last time out (5-61), but Tyreek Hill was a monster (7-142-3), but it’s unclear what the focus will be fore the Pats this week. A final few notes about why Mahomes isn’t #1 this week. (1) His salary is a factor. (2) The weather is a factor. (3) His performance at home this year is much less than his road work. He has thrown just 19 passing scores in nine home games this season versus 31 in eight road outings. (4) He has thrown more deep passes this season than any other QB, but the Pats had the best coverage group in football on the deep ball holding opponents to a 24.2 completion rate on said passes.
Tom Brady (@KC) – Weather could be a huge issue. It could be as cold as below zero at kickoff which might be the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history. The Pats have played one game under 10 degrees with Brady at the helm in his career (not this year). Brady had three games this season under 40 degrees, and he posted a 98.6 QB Rating while averaging 223.2 yards and two passing scores an outing. Brady looked sharp last week (343-1-0), indeed he did, but Rob Gronkowski caught one pass for 25 yards, he’s just not a trustworthy piece at the moment. Brady also saw his production dip on the road this season with just 12 passing scores in eight games. The Chiefs can bring the heat, and Brady is the most immobile QB left playing, but the Pats o-line does come in ranked 5th in PFF pass blocking, and they performed extremely well last week against the Chargers. Brady also went 24-for-35 for 340-1 in the Week 6 matchup.
Jared Goff (@NO) – Weather will not be an issue. Earlier this year he lit up the Saints for 393-3-1 in a game the Saints won 45-35. However, Goff’s production has taken a significant dip of late. Over his last five regular season game, Goff threw for an average of a mere 228 yards an outing. He also was picked off six times, the same number of scores he threw for, meaning he barely averaged 228-1 his last five regular season outings. Last week the Rams went old school in beating the Cowboys running the ball seemingly on every play. Goff attempted only 28 passes in that outing, his third straight game at that number or lower, throwing for 186 yards. That’s two games in a row under 200-yards for Goff, and 5-of-6 under 220 yards. He also has six passing scores in six games. There’s not much to hang your hat on with Goff other than him being the cheapest option this week.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys).