What’s up #ELITEMAFIA, it’s a 2-game College Football Thursday night starting at 7:30 PM EST.
Let’s jump right into the game by game breakdown.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Arkansas State (7:30 PM KICKOFF)
Spread: ULL -7 | Total: 68
There is a huge difference in Vegas totals tonight. For Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher has been outstanding in his two starts. He has nearly 800 passing yards and 8 TDs. The backfield is beat up. Marcel Murray is questionable but should play. ULL rush defense allows 183 yards a game. Omar Bayless and Kirk Merritt lead the receiving corps. Both are over 10 targets a game. However, Bayless has 10 receiving touchdowns, which is tied for the lead in FBS. They are both priced up on DraftKings, up over $7,000. Getting both in might be difficult. A cheaper option is Jonathan Adams, who has 5 targets a game.
Over on the ULL side, the offense has a great matchup against a defense that allows over 320 passing yards a game and over 215 rushing yards a game. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a run heavy team that ranks 6th in NCAA in yards per game (282.2). The backfield of Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas are sharing the load. Ragas has the higher game average, but Mitchell has 9 rushing touchdowns. It’s a small slate but I could see using both just based off matchup. Their best WR is Ja’Marcus Bradley. Bradley is also on injury watch. He has just 5 targets a game, but the weak defense of Ark St, should help.
DFS Targets: QB Layne Hatcher (ARKST), WR Omar Bayless (ARKST), WR Kirk Merritt (ARKST), WR Jonathan Adams (ARKST), RB Elijah Mitchell (ULL), RB Trey Raga (ULL), WR Ja’Marcus Bradley(ULL)
UCLA @ Stanford (9:00 PM KICKOFF)
Spread: STAN -5.5 | Total: 50.5
This game has a few more injury concerns. Starting out with Stanford’s side. We could see a red-shirt freshman start tonight. Starter K. J. Costello is out, and David Mills is questionable, so it looks like Jack West will draw the start. He is $5100 on DK. The matchup is one that he could have some success against a UCLA pass defense that allows over 340 yards a game. He’s not a dual threat, but that price and matchup have him in play. At the RB spot, Cameron Scarlett leads the way. He has seen an increase of 6 carries over the last 4 games; topping off at 33 last game. I don’t see him getting close to 30, but 24 plus provides a great floor. For the receiving corps, Colby Parkinson seems like the best option and should be West’s safety blanket. Connor Wedington and Michael Wilson are the main WRs. Each average 6 targets a game. However, Parkinson is the big body for the Redzone.
UCLA’s starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson is questionable with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, Austin Burton will start. Burton is a dual-threat type, he had 64 yards rushing last game. Stanford’s rush defense is allowing only allowing 119 yards a game, however Joshua Kelley seems to be a fine option based on carries. The Stanford passing defense has allowed 275 yards a game so that should Burton in his 2nd start. I love a good QB-WR stack and we have some players to pair with Burton. The top option will be Demetric Felton. Felton is a hybrid that had 12 targets but had double digit in carries last week. For the redzone, TE Devin Asiasi has 6 targets. Overall he averages just over 5 targets a game. Kyle Phillips had 9 targets his last game with Burton and he also leads the team with 8 Redzone targets.
DFS Targets: RB Cam Scarlett (STAN), QB Jack West (STAN), TE Colby Parkinson (STAN), QB Austin Burton (UCLA), RB Joshua Kelley (UCLA), WR Demetric Felton (UCLA)