Some decent mid-season GPP’s are up in the lobby this week. Both DK and FanDuel have added more games to their main slates, so I’ll get right to it this week.
Here’s a breakdown of all the games, followed by my positional rankings, sorted by slate (based on value, not raw points):
Here you can choose which slate you’d like to jump to, or you can skip right to the rankings:
DraftKings Main Slate, 12:00 pm (12 games)
Maryland @ Purdue (12:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Maryland -3.5 | Total: 53.5
We’re looking for players to hit 3.2x value for GPP cutlines on this slate, and I’m not sure I trust anyone from Maryland to get me there. Anthony McFarland ($7,200) is a great back, but the team turns away from him as soon as game script falls out of the run-game’s favor.
Jack Plummer ($5,900) has faced three really tough defenses in his first three starts, but Maryland is not that. I like the Purdue pass game even without Rondale Moore this week. I think it’s clear that David Bell ($4,700)and Jackson Anthrop ($4,300) are Plummer’s favorite targets – and I like them both at this price.
DFS Targets: QB Jack Plummer (PUR), WR David Bell (PUR), WR Jackson Anthrop (PUR)
Mississippi State @ Tennessee (12:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Mississippi State -7 | Total: 53.0
Both teams are underachieving this season – Tennessee has yet to beat an FBS opponent in 2019. Tennessee has a couple nice receivers, but nobody that I think goes off here.
MSU QB Garrett Shrader ($6,500) is averaging just about 100 rushing yards per game in his last three starts – you have to love that upside. I also like Kylin Hill ($7,300) to get back on track here.
DFS Targets: QB Garrett Shrader (MSST), RB Kylin Hill (MSST)
Oklahoma @ Texas (12:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Oklahoma -10.5 | Total: 75.5
Sam Ehlinger ($8,400) went for 92 combined DK points in two games against this Oklahoma defense last season. This game is likely to shoot out, and these two quarterbacks are possibly the top two fantasy players in all of college football this weekend.
Collin Johnson ($5,200) is apparently confirmed to be playing this week. This is likely the lowest price we’ll be able to roster him at all season. He dropped 8-177-1 on Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship last season, and 6-81-1 in the Red River game a year ago. This also likely means a drop-off for Devin Duvernay ($7,400).
Jalen Hurts ($9,000) continues to be the top fantasy QB in the nation, averaging 44.4 DK points per game thus far. CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) had another disappointing game last week, so he’s merely a GPP dart for me at this point.
From last week’s write-up: “Is it possible that Trey Sermon ($5,500) punches in another couple goal line touchdowns this week? Yes, but I’m not going to bet on it.” Yea…he did. Same thing for me this week though. We’re still not seeing the workload, and Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200) keeps looking better and better behind him.
DFS Targets: QB Sam Ehlinger (UT), WR Collin Johnson (UT), QB Jalen Hurts (OU), WR CeeDee Lamb (OU)
Michigan @ Illinois (12:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Michigan -23 | Total: 49.0
The Wolverines have given up 3 combined points in their last two. I don’t think they hold Illinois to 3, but I also don’t see anyone on the offense capable of beasting against Michigan’s defense.
The UM offense is terribly inconsistent, and probably not worth the headache in DFS lineups.
DFS Targets: None
South Carolina @ Georgia (12:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Georgia -23.5 | Total: 52.5
Georgia hasn’t allowed more than 17 points against in any game this season, and South Carolina is not likely to break that trend.
I love the upside of D’Andre Swift ($7,200), but his usage can be maddening. In a game Georgia is favored by 23.5 points, it’s probably best to fade Swift here. Fromm is a good quarterback, but this offense is just not fantasy friendly.
DFS Targets: None
Georgia Tech @ Duke (12:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Duke -17.5 | Total: 49.0
Georgia Tech is a mess. The transition from the triple-option is not going well, and could take a couple more years for the team to get the right pieces. They’re averaging just 15 points per game, and not fantasy viable.
This game is all about RB Deon Jackson ($5,400) for me. He has 16+ carries in three of his last four games and can also catch the ball out of the backfield, making him immune to negative game script. He’s hit 25+ DK points in his last two games, giving him big GPP upside. Georgia Tech ranks No. 129 in the country against the run – allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing backs.
Harris is a solid fantasy quarterback, he’s just expensive, and I’m not sure how much Duke will actually need to throw in this one.
DFS Targets: RB Deon Jackson (DUKE)
Florida State @ Clemson (3:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Clemson -27 | Total: 60.0
I’m not quite sure what’s happened to this Clemson offense lately, but the defense hasn’t let up. Alex Hornibrook ($6,400) and Cam Akers ($7,700) have been good, but I’m not touching them in this matchup.
FSU has been brutal against the pass – allowing over 300 yards per game, good for No. 121 in the country. I think Trevor Lawrence ($7,200) has a big game. Lawrence threw for 314 yards and 4 scores against Florida State last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar numbers in this one. As usual, Tee Higgins ($6,300) is the safer cash-game option, while Justyn Ross ($5,900) provides higher upside, but comes with more inconsistency.
I’m not sure what to make of Travis Etienne ($7,100) right now. We know what he’s capable of, but he hasn’t shown it since the season opener. He also ran for only 45 yards against this defense last season, so I’m just going to fade and pray this week with Etienne.
DFS Targets: QB Trevor Lawrence (CLEM), WR Tee Higgins (CLEM), WR Justyn Ross (CLEM)
Alabama @ Texas A&M (3:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Alabama -17 | Total: 61.0
17 points seems way too low here. The Aggies haven’t really looked great against anyone except Texas State and Lamar. Meanwhile, Alabama is bombing away on literally everyone – scoring no less than 42 points in any game this season.
We know Tua Tagovailoa ($8,600) is going to get there, but what about his receivers?
It’s a complete guessing game. The most consistent receiver has been Jerry Jeudy ($7,600) but even he’s gone for 16 DK points or less in two of his last three. Let’s see if we can establish some sort of pattern here. In week one, Henry Ruggs ($7,300) was third in line for targets (3), in week two, DeVonta Smith ($6,500) was third in line (4). In week three, it was Ruggs that was third in line (6), Smith in week four (2), and Ruggs in week five (4). Is it Smith’s turn to take a week off? Who knows…
My best suggestion if you want the Alabama offense – play three lineups, and stack Tua with Jeudy in one, Ruggs in another, and Smith in a third. We know one of them will go off, the hard part is figuring out which one.
DFS Targets: QB Tua Tagovailoa (BAMA), WR Jerry Jeudy (BAMA), WR Henry Ruggs (BAMA), WR DeVonta Smith (BAMA)
Washington State @ Arizona State (3:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Arizona State -1 | Total: 59.5
Utah really shut down Washington State’s pass game, and I think there’s a good chance Arizona State can do the same. Anthony Gordon ($8,200) and Max Borghi ($7,400) are probably safe plays based on volume, but I don’t love them.
Wazzou is giving up 4,6 yards per carry to opposing backs, so Eno Benjamin ($7,500) is high on my list of plays this week. The Sun Devils offense runs through him – Benjamin has 20+ carries in four of five games this season.
DFS Targets: QB Anthony Gordon (WSU), RB Max Borghi (WSU), RB Eno Benjamin (ASU)
Michigan State @ Wisconsin (3:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Wisconsin -10.5 | Total: 40.5
The Spartans are allowing just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing backs but have to deal with Jonathan Taylor ($8,800) this week. Can they hold up? I’m not sure, but I’m also not going to spend $8,800 on Taylor in this matchup. We need about 30 DK points to hit cash value, and upwards of 40+ for GPP-winning value.
This game has a projected total of just 40 points – nothing to see here.
DFS Targets: None
Iowa State @ West Virginia (4:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Iowa State -10 | Total: 53.0
WR Sam James ($5,400) has caught at least 5 balls in all five games this season and has emerged as the WR1 in the Mountaineer offense. Somehow, his price never seems to climb, so I’ll still be plugging him into lineups this week. Otherwise, this offense has been remarkably inconsistent, so I’ll be staying away from anyone else.
Iowa State QB Brock Purdy ($8,000) has been piling up the rushing yards, going over the 100-yard mark against a tough TCU defense last week. I love the rushing upside and will want some exposure in GPP’s.
His top target is WR Deshaunte Jones ($5,400), who is both consistent and reasonably priced. Like James, I think Jones makes a great cash game play, and has the upside to be GPP-relevant, too.
DFS Targets: WR Sam James (WVU), QB Brock Purdy (ISU), WR Deshaunte Jones (ISU)
Texas Tech @ Baylor (4:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Baylor -11.5 | Total: 58.0
I think many will point-chase last week’s production from Jett Duffey ($6,600), but I’m not buying in against what has looked like a great Baylor defense thus far. The Bears passing D has allowed under 200 yards per game through the air, and just 3 passing touchdowns in five games.
Denzel Mims ($7,100) is about the only piece of the Baylor offense that has the ceiling for GPP-winning value. He’s hit double-digit DK points in seven straight games, and gone over 30 fantasy points twice in his last four.
DFS Targets: WR Denzel Mims (BAY)
Main Slate (12:00 pm) Positional Rankings (ranked by value)
- Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Sam Ehlinger, Texas, $8,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, $8,600 (Cash or GPP)
- Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, $7,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Anthony Gordon, Washington State, $8,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Brock Purdy, Iowa State, $8,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Garrett Shrader, Mississippi State, $6,500 (Cash or GPP)
- Jack Plummer, Purdue, $5,900 (Cash or GPP)
- Eno Benjamin, Arizona State, $7,500 (Cash or GPP)
- Deon Jackson, Duke, $5,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Kylin Hill, Mississippi State, $7,300 (Cash or GPP)
- Max Borghi, Washington State, $7,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, $7,600 (Cash or GPP)
- CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma, $7,200 (GPP)
- Henry Ruggs, Alabama, $7,300 (GPP)
- Tee Higgins, Clemson, $6,300 (Cash or GPP)
- DeVonta Smith, Alabama, $6,500 (GPP)
- Collin Johnson, Texas, $5,200 (GPP)
- Denzel Mims, Baylor, $7,100 (Cash or GPP)
- Deshaunte Jones, Iowa State, $5,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Sam James, West Virginia, $5,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Justyn Ross, Texas, $5,900 (GPP)
- Jackson Anthrop, Purdue, $4,300 (Cash or GPP)
- David Bell, Purdue, $4,700 (Cash or GPP)
DraftKings Night Slate, 7:00 pm (7 games)
Ole Miss @ Missouri (7:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Missouri -12.5 | Total: 57.0
Despite a big win over Vanderbilt, the Rebels are a mess this season. I’m not quite sure why they don’t give the ball to Scottie Phillips ($5,500) more, but it’s just not happening.
Missouri has scored 30+ points in all five games this season. They’re big favorites again, and I think Larry Rountree ($6,800) could have a big game on the ground. He’s GPP-only for me with Badie splitting carries with him, but if he gets hot, he can put up big numbers in a hurry.
Kelly Bryant ($7,000) is a little safer of a play, but comes with limited upside with Missouri projected to be big favorites. Ole Miss ranks No. 119 against the pass, allowing nearly 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
DFS Targets: QB Kelly Bryant (MIZZ), RB Larry Rountree (MIZZ)
Louisville @ Wake Forest (7:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Wake Forest -6.5 | Total: 65.5
Jamie Newman ($7,800) is the top quarterback on this slate. He’s topped 30 DK points in all five of his starts this season and has gone for 28+ fantasy points in seven straight dating back to last season.
Sage Surratt ($7,300) is the top receiver on this slate. Surratt has gone for double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and has three games over 30 DK points in five games this season.
Scotty Washington ($6,400) has the upside, but not the same consistency as Surratt. Washington has two 38-point performances on DK this season – giving him plenty of upside for GPP’s.
Louisville has some solid pieces too this season, and Vegas projects this game to get into shootout territory. RB Javian Hawkins ($5,200) showed off his ceiling in week 6 against Boston College, taking 25 carries for 175 yards and a score.
The Cardinals are going to run the ball a ton, but their passing targets are pretty funneled towards two players – Tutu Atwell ($5,700) and Dez Fitzpatrick ($5,200). Both have been very consistent, and both have shown high ceilings, as well.
DFS Targets: QB Jamie Newman (WAKE), WR Sage Surratt (WAKE), WR Scotty Washington (WAKE), RB Javian Hawkins (UL), WR Chatarius Atwell (UL), WR Dez Fitzpatrick (UL)
Penn State @ Iowa (7:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Penn State -3.5 | Total: 42.0
We haven’t seen this Penn State team play a real good defense yet this season. Iowa ranks No. 5 in the country in total defense. Penn State? No. 4. This should be a defensive battle similar to the Michigan-Iowa 10-3 game in week six. We can scratch this game off our list.
DFS Targets: None
Nebraska @ Minnesota (7:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Minnesota -7.5 | Total: 49.5
Minnesota has won its last seven games and is becoming a big story in the college football landscape this season. Can they go 6-0 against an explosive Nebraska offense?
Nebraska ranks No. 83 against the run, and with Mohamed Ibrahim questionable once again, Rodney Smith ($5,800) becomes a solid play again if he misses. I don’t mind playing him in cash games even if Ibrahim plays, but I’ll definitely want to lock him in if not.
Minnesota plays at a slow-pace, and controls time of possession, so I’m not sure I’m investing in their pass game this week. Smith has 20+ carries in two straight games, and the game plan should be run-heavy again as Minnesota is a heavy favorite.
The Cornhuskers have really struggled against good defenses in the past couple of weeks, and Minnesota is no different.
DFS Targets: RB Rodney Smith (MINN)
USC @ Notre Dame (7:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Notre Dame -10.5 | Total: 59.0
Kedon Slovis ($6,200) is back and starting for USC, which helps out the Trojan receivers. Michael Pittman ($6,900) seemed to be Slovis’ favorite target, and his price will likely keep ownership down – with the masses favoring the cheaper St. Brown and Vaughns. Pittman has shown tremendous upside though, and has also been the most consistent receiver, as well.
The Trojans have been brutal against the run – especially on the road. They’re allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs, making Tony Jones ($5,200) a real nice option. He only managed 7 carries last week, but it was in a 52-0 blowout – he wasn’t needed and STILL ran for over 100 yards.
DFS Targets: WR Michael Pittman (USC), RB Tony Jones (ND)
Utah @ Oregon State (8:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Utah -14.5 | Total: 59.5
Utah has been quite susceptible to the pass, ranked just No. 73 in the country – allowing 228.6 yards per game. Isaiah Hodgins ($7,700) has quietly been one of the best receivers in college football in 2019. He’s surpassed 20 DK points in all five games, with at least 7 catches in each. He’s averaging a stat line of 12 targets, 8.5 catches, 126.4 yards, and nearly 2 TD’s per game.
Tyler Huntley ($7,000) should be able to have his way with this Oregon State defense. I like Huntley a lot this week but will like him even more if Zack Moss ($6,700) is out again. If Moss is in, he’s a definite play for me. If not, I’ll likely stay away, as the Utes have been running a lot of WR runs and zone reads in his absence. For what it’s worth, I don’t expect Moss to play.
DFS Targets: WR Isaiah Hodgins (ORST), QB Tyler Huntley (UTAH)
Florida @ LSU (8:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: LSU -13.5 | Total: 56.0
I don’t love Lamical Perine ($6,000) as a player, but I love that he can catch the ball – he’s not game script dependent, which is huge for DFS purposes. He ran for 130 yards and caught four balls against a tough Auburn defense and should be able to do the same if given the opportunity against the Tigers of LSU.
This will be the first big test for Joe Burrow ($8,200) this season and I’ll likely be fading him. He’s expensive, will have a bunch of ownership, and frankly – there’s no way I’m fading Newman on this slate.
Apparently, we’ve got another situation like the Alabama wide receivers here – with Chase and Jefferson taking turns being the guy. I’m just staying away from this situation – I think the Wake Forest receivers have similar floors and ceilings, and should be lower-owned.
DFS Targets: RB Lamical Perine (UF)
Night Slate (7:00 pm) Positional Rankings (ranked by value)
- Jamie Newman, Wake Forest, $7,800 (Cash or GPP)
- Tyler Huntley, Utah, $7,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Kelly Bryant, Missouri, $7,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Tony Jones, Notre Dame, $5,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Rodney Smith, Minnesota, $5,800 (Cash or GPP)
- Javian Hawkins, Louisville, $5,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Lamical Perine, Florida, $6,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Larry Rountree, Missouri, $6,800 (GPP)
- Sage Surratt, Wake Forest, $7,300 (Cash or GPP)
- Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State, $7,700 (Cash or GPP)
- Chatarius Atwell, Louisville, $5,700 (Cash or GPP)
- Michael Pittman, USC, $6,900 (Cash or GPP)
- Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville, $5,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Scotty Washington, Wake Forest, $6,400 (Cash or GPP)
DraftKings Late Night Slate, 10:15 pm (3 games)
Hawaii @ Boise State (10:15 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Boise State -13 | Total: 60.5
Hawaii is allowing over 5 yards per carry to opposing backs. The problem is, Boise State has a three-man committee, with Mahone and Holani sharing an equal number of carries.We have to stay away from that.
This game could shoot out, and if that happens, I’m going to want some Hank Bachmeier ($7,000) exposure. He should have a lot of ownership taken off of him for McDonald and Tate, but Bachmeier has been really consistent in his first season. John Hightower ($6,400) has seen his targets increase in every game this season and he’s coming off of his first 100-yard game of the season. Thomas and Shakir are inconsistent options with high ceilings but low, low floors.
Of course we’re going to target the Hawaii pass game. Besides the hiccup against Washington in week three, Cole McDonald ($7,200) has eclipsed 32 DK points in each game this season. Cedric Byrd ($7,300) has at least 13 DK points in each of his five games – posting games of 64 and 37 DK points in weeks one and five.
DFS Targets: QB Hank Bachmeier (BSU), WR John Hightower (BSU), QB Cole McDonald (HAW), WR Cedric Byrd (HAW)
Wyoming @ San Diego State (10:30 pm Kickoff)
Spread: San Diego State -3.5 | Total: 38.0
Just a 38-point total in this one, and there’s just one player I’m interested in here. Kobe Smith ($6,500)continues to put up big numbers for the Aztecs. He’s gone for 26+ DK points in three of his last four games. Wyoming is tough against the run, so look for San Diego State to attack through the air.
DFS Targets: WR Kobe Smith (SDSU)
Washington @ Arizona (11:00 pm Kickoff)
Spread: Washington -6 | Total: 60.0
I think Washington is going to do everything possible to stop Khalil Tate ($7,600) from scrambling, which should allow J.J. Taylor ($5,300) some space to move – if he’s healthy. Taylor missed the week five game against UCLA, and although he started last week, he saw just 1 carry – the classic decoy. If we hear that he’s healthy, I like him a lot. I’m not holding my breath though.
Regardless of Taylor’s health, I really like the looks of Michael Wiley ($3,500), a true freshman RB that was featured in the pass game last week – catching 6 balls for 48 yards. Kevin Sumlin speaks highly of this kid, and I’d expect him to play more and more as the season goes on.
WR Tayvian Cunningham ($3,000) is a big play waiting to happen, and he’s still listed at the stone-cold min-price on DK. He’s had 5 passing targets in four straight games and is averaging 4 receptions per game in 2019.
If they force Tate to throw the ball more, I’d also expect Brian Casteel ($5,200) to have a nice game. Casteel has caught 7 balls in back-to-back games.
Arizona ranks No. 128 against the pass this season, so look for Jacob Eason ($6,900) to have a big game here. I like Eason and his WR1 Aaron Fuller ($7,100), who has double-digit DK points in all five games this year, including three games of 24+ fantasy points.
Game script didn’t favor Salvon Ahmed ($6,600) last week, but Washington is a 6-point favorite in this one. I like Ahmed who could go under the radar after a rough week six stat line.
DFS Targets: RB Michael Wiley (ARIZ), WR Tayvian Cunningham (ARIZ), WR Brian Casteel (ARIZ), QB Jacob Eason (UW), RB Salvon Ahmed (UW), WR Aaron Fuller (UW)
Late Night Slate (10:15 pm) Positional Rankings (ranked by value)
- Cole McDonald, Hawaii, $7,200 (Cash or GPP)
- Jacob Eason, Washington, $6,900 (Cash or GPP)
- Hank Bachmeier, Boise State, $7,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Salvon Ahmed, Washington, $6,600 (Cash or GPP)
- Michael Wiley, Arizona, $3,500 (Cash or GPP)
- ***J.J. Taylor, Arizona, $5,300 (only if we hear he’s healthy)
- Cedric Byrd, Hawaii, $7,300 (Cash or GPP)
- Kobe Smith, San Diego State, $6,500 (Cash or GPP)
- Aaron Fuller, Washington, $7,100 (Cash or GPP)
- John Hightower, Boise State, $6,400 (Cash or GPP)
- Tayvian Cunningham, Arizona, $3,000 (Cash or GPP)
- Brian Casteel, Arizona, $5,200 (Cash or GPP)