Scott Bondar provides expert analysis for your CFB DFS teams to help you take down all the money!
The goal of the CFB DFS Slate Breakdown is to review the main CFB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, and also add analysis that will help gain knowledge for EliteFantasy Subscribers for future weeks.
College Football is much like other forms of DFS sports, with the main difference relating to the information being less accessible. There’s a legitimate advantage to watching games (especially with the mid-major teams) and finding how these teams and offensive (and defensive) systems function. Alleviating that end of the spectrum and providing actionable results will help provide an edge on our non-subscriber competition. It’s been a crazy and chaotic 2020 season in the college football world. But despite all that, let’s dive in, find some edges, and make this a winning slate for #Elitemafia.
Vegas (Main Slate)
|LA TECH||GSU||GSU -6.5||48.5|
New Orleans Bowl – 3:00 PM
Louisiana Tech v Georgia Southern (O/U 48.5)
Starting with Louisiana Tech, a school that is 600 miles away from the Superdome. Aaron Allen (DK $6,500, FD $7,700) is the starting QB since former starter Luke Anthony was lost to a leg injury. Allen will be without star WR Adrian Hardy, who opted out for the NFL Draft. Smoke Harris (DK $5,800, FD $9,000) will take over as WR1 for this team. RB Israel Tucker (DK $5,400, FD $8,900) has averaged just over four yards a carry. Regardless, the matchup for Louisiana Tech against the Georgia Southern defense will be tough. They only allowed 22 points a game. I have little to no interest in this team.
Georgia Southern is a triple option team. Their top QB Shai Werts (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) is listed as doubtful, but we will have to wait and see if he suits up. If Werts is out, that leaves Miller Mosley (DK $6,300, FD $8,200) under center. Whoever is under center, this offense will be running. They averaged over 260 rushing yards a game, which is fifth in the nation. Werts is the team’s leading rusher, so him being out would hurt this team big time. Logan Wright (DK $4,500, FD $8,000) should be featured, and he is an option on this small slate. Wesley Kennedy (DK $7,000, FD $9,100) is suspended but could play. Keep an eye out for that. No wide receivers should be considered.
Targets: WR Smoke Harris, QB Shai Werts (if plays)
Value: QB Miller Mosley, RB Logan Wright
Montgomery Bowl – 7 PM
Memphis v FAU (o/u 50)
Memphis has what seems to be a seven-year QB in Brady White (DK $9,500, FD $11,000). The Tigers are a nine-point favorite and should score plenty of fantasy points in this matchup. The sites have bumped up WR Calvin Austin (DK $9,200, FD $10,400) and TE Sean Dykes (DK $6,000, FD $8,800). Austin finished second in receiving yards in the AAC and had 10 touchdowns. You’re going to be paying a lot, but it’s justified with his production and this small slate. Dykes had seven touchdowns and nearly 600 receiving yards. Finally, WR Tahj Washington (DK $6,500, FD $9,300) had seven touchdowns in just 10 games.
If you run White, I recommended you have one, if not two, of them in the lineup to pair with him. The matchup against FAU will be tough, as their defense allows just over 175 yards a game. The backfield situation is nowhere close to the explosive teams of the last few years. Asa Martin (DK $4,000, FD $6,600) has emerged as a featured back the last two games, and Rodrigues Clark ($4,900, FD $7,600) has not topped 40 rushing yards since Week 8. The prices on them make them an option because of the slate being so small, and the high priced options could be needed to cash today. Martin is the best RB value with the upside.
FAU has Javion Posey (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) to run the offense. Posey is the team’s leading rusher, and he’s the type of QB you look for in the CFB DFS world. However, he is a GPP option only based on his lack of production. The backfield is led by James Charles (DK $6,700, FD $9,500), who has four rushing touchdowns, and he’s the only true RB1 on this slate. This offense isn’t great, but the matchup should allow for a chance to breakout. Memphis’ defense ranks 102nd nationally, allowing nearly 450 yards a game and nearly 30 points a game. So there is hope….
Targets: QB Brady White, WR Calvin Austin, TE Sean Dykes, WR Tahj Washington, RB James Charles
Value: RB Asa Martin
DK CORE: RB Logan Wright, QB Brady White, WR Smoke Harris, RB James Charles
FD CORE: RB Logan Wright, RB Asa Martin, QB Miller Mosley
FanDuel has made it VERY tough to use White and Austin without punting somewhere. Keep that in mind.