Scott Bondar provides expert analysis for your CFB DFS teams to help you take down all the money!
The goal of the CFB DFS Slate Breakdown is to review the main CFB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, and also add analysis that will help gain knowledge for EliteFantasy Subscribers for future weeks.
College Football is much like other forms of DFS sports, with the main difference relating to the information being less accessible. There’s a legitimate advantage to watching games (especially with the mid-major teams) and finding how these teams and offensive (and defensive) systems function. Alleviating that end of the spectrum and providing actionable results will help provide an edge on our non-subscriber competition. It’s been a crazy and chaotic 2020 season in the college football world. But despite all that, let’s dive in, find some edges, and make this a winning slate for #Elitemafia.
Vegas (Main Slate)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – 3:30 PM
Tulane v Nevada (O/U 57)
Tulane is led by QB Michael Pratt (DK $6,400, FD $9,200). Pratt has 18 touchdowns across eight games and has seven rushing touchdowns. He is a dual-threat, and his price makes him a great option with a safe floor. The Tulane offense is focused on running, as they average 200 yards per game, ranking 17th overall in FBS. RBs Stephon Huderson (DK $3,500, FD $7000) and Cameron Carroll (DK $3,900, FD $7,600) lead the backfield. Both backs rushed for over 600 yards this season. Pratt’s #1 target is Deuce Watts (DK $4,500, FD $7,000). Watts has six touchdowns and just over 500 receiving yards a game. Tulane has scored 30 plus points in eight of nine games.
Nevada is led by the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year, QB Carson Strong (DK $7,100, FD $8,500). Strong has five games with over 300 passing yards and threw for 22 touchdowns. Tulane’s passing defense ranks 115th in the nation, so expect Strong to have a strong day. The offense averages just over 430 total yards a game and ranks 32nd in FBS.
One of Strong’s favorite targets is Romeo Doubs (DK $7,400, FD $9,800). Doubs is a concern to opt-out, so keep an eye out. He’s only had one touchdown this season, too. He is also just 48 yards short of 1,000 yards receiving on the year. TE Cole Turner (DK $6,000, FD $8,000) and Justin Lockhart (DK $3,800, FD $6,000) have over 25 catches on the season. Turner is a great option; he had 44 catches and seven touchdowns. With his 6-6 frame, he will be hard to stop.
Targets: QB Michael Pratt, QB Carson Strong, WR Romeo Doubs, TE Cole Turner
Value: Tulane RBs, WR Justin Lockhart
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl – 7 PM
UCF v BYU (O/U 75)
This is a game that will be fun for DFS purposes, and the sites have priced the options very high.
UCF has a fun team, and it starts with QB Dillion Gabriel (DK $8,900, FD $11,000). He has topped at least 300 yards in seven games this season and threw for over 3,300 yards with 30 passing touchdowns. UCF averaged over 585 total yards a game. Marlon Williams has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. That leaves Jaylon Robinson (DK $6,300, FD $8,700) and Jacob Harris (DK $5,500, FD $6,100) as top options; each was targeted over 47 times this year.
In the backfield, you have Greg McCrae (DK $5,300, FD $8,600) or Otis Anderson (DK $4,400, FD $7,200). Anderson is listed as questionable, so take caution and use him in your utility if you go that route. They combined for 13 touchdowns this season. IF Anderson sits, Bentavious Thompson (DK $4,200, FD $6,600) should benefit. He is coming off a big 100-yard, two-touchdown game, and he is one of the top values on the slate.
For BYU, it starts at the QB spot too with QB Zach Wilson (DK $9,000, FD $11,200). Wilson also had 30 touchdowns and could be the highest-scoring player on the slate. The UCF defense is ranked 92nd against the run, so Wilson should have plenty of running lanes, along with starting RB Tyler Allgeier (DK $6,600, FD $9,200). Allgeier is just 43 yards from 1,000 on the season and averages an amazing 7.3 yards a carry. RB Lopini Katoa (DK $3,700, FD $7,500) averages just over 5.5 yards a carry. As I mentioned, the UCF rush defense is bad, allowing over 190 rushing yards a game.
Wilson’s top target is WR Dax Milne (DK $6,700, FD $8,900), who leads the team with 63 catches. UCF allowed just over 280 passing yards a game. TE Isaac Rex (DK $4,300, FD $7,200) has 10 touchdown catches and provides another option if you are looking to fit pieces of this game. Gunner Romney (DK $4,800, FD $7,900) is expected back.
Targets: QB Dillion Gabriel, WR Jaylon Robinson, WR Jacob Harris, QB Zach Wilson, RB Tyler Allgeier, WR Dax Milne
Value: UCF RBs, RB Lopini Katoa, TE Isaac Rex
DK CORE: Dillon Gabriel, Zach Wilson, Lopini Katoa, Romeo Doubs
FD CORE: Dillon Gabriel, Zach Wilson, Dax Milne, Jacob Harris