Too tough to tame. Darlington Raceway this Sunday. This is a 367 lap event…
Bojangles’ Southern 500 DFS Breakdown
- Darlington Raceway
- Sunday 9/1/19 – 6:00 PM
- 1.366 Mile Concrete Oval
Last Race Notables: Brad Keselowski won.
- Laps Led – Larson: 284, Truex: 30, Keselowski: 24, Logano: 18
- Start/Finish – Keselowski 13/1, Harvick 22/4, McMurray 31/9, Stenhouse 25/12, Ty Dillon 28/21
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,900) – Starting 33rd. BEAST. Every week, a threat to win and dominate!!
Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – Starting 9th. 11 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and two wins here at Darlington. Lead with Hamlin in your cash games. Just really solid here.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,200) – Starting 22nd. Six top 10’s, two top 5’s and a win here at Darlington. Great upside here starting so far back. Good GPP and Cash.
Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – Starting 2nd. Discount for a guy who could dominate this race. Fast in practice, starting up front. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s and a win here at Darlington.
Chase Elliott ($9,300) – Starting 8th. Finished 5th, 11th and 10th in his last three here. Also running hot in his last three races, finishing 5th, 9th and 1st.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700) – Starting 19th. Everybody pulling for Matt, including me. Running for Joe Gibbs this weekend, coming off a 2nd place finish.
Ryan Newman ($8,900) – Starting 24th. 13 top 10’s, seven top 5’s. Making some real strides with this team. I hope the price bump creates some lower ownership. Quietly having a nice year.
Kurt Busch ($9,100) – Starting 4th. He has finished 6th, 3rd, 34th and 6th in his last four here. Eight top 10’s, three top 5’s career here at Darlington.
Austin Dillon ($7,200) – Starting 14th. One top 10, one top 5. Average finish of 13 here at Darlington. Risky, as Austin has had a bit of a rough year.
Chris Buescher (7,300) – Starting 12th. Finished 13th, 17th and 17th in his three races at Darlington. Looks like a pretty safe bet for a solid run on Sunday.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – Starting 21st. Really quick in practices. Wrecking Ricky needs a W to get into the playoffs. Going to smash his way to the front. Lot’s of risk here, but I will have a few shares. GPP only.
William Byron ($7,100) – Starting 1st. A possible dominator at $7,100. Absolutely! We have seen this story before, so there is some risk here. But if Byron ends up leading a bunch of laps and a solid finish, he will be a must have.
BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500 PICKS TO WIN
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski
- Sleeper – Jimmie Johnson
Last race results: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.