The playoffs are in full swing! Scotty C guides us through today’s top plays for this two game NBA DFS slate!
What an unbelievable series so far between the Raptors and Celtics. We can only hope that tonight’s deciding game is even close to as exciting as game six. In the other series playing tonight, the Clippers really turned the screws on the Nuggets defensively last game and the momentum is clearly in their favor heading into game five. Should be a fun night of hoops!
Once again, we have a situation where four of the five starters for the Raptors project to play over forty minutes. Not just 40 minutes, but mid-40s minutes, especially in this do or die game. We can certainly make a valid case for playing any of them which makes it difficult to choose.
Kyle Lowry has been the most productive player so far for the Raptors in this series and, barring something screwy happening, it’s hard to envision him playing fewer than 45-46 minutes with it being entirely possible that he just plays all 48. Between Lowry, FVV and Siakam, we’re certainly buying highest on Lowry, but he’s earned the price tag. I have no problem going back to the well on Lowry and eating the ownership.
Pascal Siakam could very well get it going, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility, but he’s only scored 20+ real points once so far in this series and at some point you just have to wonder if the matchup is too tough for an extremely talented player. I get the reasons for buying low here but I’d rather pay a similar price for FVV or pay a bit more for Lowry. Using both Lowry and FVV on your teams is certainly a decent option.
OG Anunoby is a bit priced up for my liking. With all the minutes, he’s got a solid floor, but things really need to line up for him to hit that 6x mark on DK at 5900 (and he’s 6000 on FD).
The past two games in the series, we’ve seen Marc Gasol’s minutes shrink – 14 and 16 – with the Raptors going small and Norm Powell playing 30+ minutes off the bench in each. Gasol has a limited role with declining minutes and it’s hard to envision using him here outside of as a MME play. He’ll be low owned despite starting, which is about the best thing he has going for him.
Powell will be chalky today on a slate without a ton of value. I think Powell has a good shot of again seeing significant minutes off the bench, and he’s certainly a good play on paper, but the minutes are far from guaranteed. He’s a strong cash play but could certainly fade in tournaments.
Serge Ibaka has played anywhere between 19 and 27 minutes over the first six games of the series and, with how productive he’s been, I can see a scenario where things break right and he approaches the high point of those minutes in this one. Ibaka is a strong tournament play if you’re looking to avoid the chalk and get a little different with your lineups.
Similar situation here with the Celtics as with the Raptors. Both teams are going to win or lose with their best players on the court, which means huge minutes for Kemba, Smart, Brown and Tatum, and likely 30+ minutes for Theis. Theis is the most likely to run into early foul trouble so if I’m looking to use a bench guy for the Celtics, it would be Robert Williams. That said, there’s still a decent chance Williams sees fewer than 10 minutes and even the possibility he doesn’t play at all.
Like the Raptors, we’re running into a situation where we can justify using any of these starters which makes it very difficult to choose between them. With the price jump on Smart, he is very likely going to be the lowest owned of the Celtics starters. That’s a lot to pay for Smart but, like I said, he will be low owned.
I like playing Jayson Tatum quite a bit here. He’s got superstar talent and this is a big stage for him to shine. Kemba also has that kind of star quality so he could certainly go off here, but Tatum, especially with the rebounds, blocks and steals, and the ability to get buckets, has some serious upside. The price is really hard to ignore on Kemba so would certainly never blame anyone for going that route but I’m leaning trying to get Tatum into lineups.
Jaylen Brown has been outstanding this series. I don’t have a lot to say about him other than that he’s a really good player who’s going to play a ton of minutes. My priority is to take a shot on Tatum so I probably won’t get there, but he’s a solid play.
Theis is solid. Good floor, limited ceiling. He’s a fine guy to round out your lineups.
It’s pretty brutal trying to pay all the way up for Kawhi Leonard on this slate. We all know he’s a stud and he flashed some upside last game with Paul George in foul trouble but its just tough to get there. If you can make it work, would never talk you off it, but you certainly don’t have to go there.
PG-13 has shown flashes lately of why he’s an elite talent but last game he ran into constant foul trouble and had one of those off nights where he couldn’t find any kind of rhythm. George has been all over the place in these playoffs shooting the ball and it’s just tough to know what we’re going to get on any given night. The 7700 price tag on FD looks nice but if I’m choosing between he and FVV at 7900, I’d give the edge to FVV.
Ivica Zubac hasn’t shown much upside but he’s going to get minutes and he’s a decent salary saving option. I prefer him on FD where he’s just 4700. On DK, where he’s 5000, I’d rather pay a little extra and take a shot on Serge Ibaka in GPPs, who has flashed significantly more upside in these playoffs.
Marcus Morris is regularly seeing 30 minutes but, like Jerami Grant for the Nuggets, has been underwhelming lately. I think I’d prefer taking a shot on Morris over Grant in this price range but neither inspires a ton of confidence right now. Again, though, we’ve only got so much to work with on this slate 5k and below. He’s a passable play.
It’s hard to ignore that 3800 price tag on Patrick Beverley on DK. He’s starting and ramping up his minutes to around 25. There’s bust potential there but the savings helps us pay up elsewhere and the minutes are trending in the right direction.
Decent chance that if you play LouWill he’s not going to get there because the opportunity is somewhat limited with Kawhi and PG-13 dominating the ball but there’s certainly a path to a big game.
Montrezl Harrell is another guy who is playable on this slate. Moreso on DK at 4300. Not someone to target, but could certainly be in your pool if you’re MMEing.
With the lack of value options, Gary Harris is one of the top plays below 5k. He fouled out last game and only saw 23 minutes, but think he could push for 40 tonight as long as he can stay on the court. His backup, Torrey Craig, is really not doing much in this series and I think the Nuggets would just prefer to roll with Harris as much as possible.
Harris will likely take on ownership tonight as will Michael Porter Jr. in a similar price range. With Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant giving them so little production, Porter Jr. has been a breath of fresh air the past couple games. That said, I’m not entirely convinced that the veteran Millsap won’t be turned to for 28-30 minutes in an elimination game. With plenty of ownership turning to Porter Jr., I don’t hate taking a shot on Millsap in GPPs, even though I don’t think he’s better than Porter Jr. or should be playing over him.
Nik Jokic is a little bit like Kawhi Leonard in that we all know he’s a stud and it’s whether we can manevuer our lineups in a way to afford him. On FD, there’s so few decent options given that Harrell is overpriced, Gasol is seeing 15 minutes, and Williams is super risky, that it pretty much comes down to paying up for Jokic or taking the savings on Zubac.
It’s looking less and less likely that Murray has a monster game in him against this outstanding Clippers perimeter defense. He’ll be low owned but I think the majority of the time he’s not hitting 40 fantasy points here and the Raptors and Celtics guards have a lot going for them on this slate.