The playoffs are in full swing! Benny guides us through today’s top plays for this two game NBA DFS slate!
We do not have many slates left in NBA DFS this year. The Boston Celtics have a 3-2 lead on the Raptors here and thankfully OG Anunoby hit that prayer at the end of game three or this would be done. On the other side of the bracket, the Clippers took game three to go up 2-1.
This is the fourth time we have had this pairing as the slate, so I feel like you guys already know what I am going to say for the most part. I’m going to try to keep it short and sweet to make it easier for you guys to build lineups.
The one issue we need to talk about here is Serge Ibaka. Ibaka went out late in the last game and is listed as Questionable. Marc Gasol is not able to play 35+ minutes at this point of his career, so no Ibaka would mean the Raptors need to dig deeper into the bench than they have in recent games.
Young Chris Boucher would probably step into a much more prominent role if Serge Ibaka is out. I mention this because value plays are few and far between at this point of the season. The rotations are shortened and the higher priced guys are the ones getting massive minutes.
A value play like this opening up would end up very highly owned, but I don’t think you really want to be the guy fading a min priced play that is going to see 20+ minutes today when everyone else has him. Now, we do not have the final confirmation Ibaka is out, but obviously keep that in mind.
I am going to speak in FanDuel positions for the article since they are more rigid than DK roster guidelines.
1- Kyle Lowry – I do not think any of the top PG options between Murray, Kemba, and Lowry are bad plays, but we need to find the best of the three since they are all priced close to each other. Lowry has been the guy with the highest ceiling throughout the series and that’s what we need to win. Lowry is also a gamer and will not allow his team to be eliminated without a fight here. The last thing I want to add is the Serge Ibaka situation. Ibaka may not play a lot of minutes, but he rebounds and scores when he does. If he’s limited or sits, Kyle Lowry is an across the board producer that would be able to pick up the slack for that lost production.
2- Jamal Murray – The Clippers/Nuggets series projects to be higher scoring than the Celtics and Raptors game, which is why I rank Murray 2nd. All of these guys are $8K+ so you really have to decide whether you can afford to spend up for two at the PG position, which would mean fading someone else at a high price somewhere.
3- Lou Williams – Of the cheaper options available to us at the PG position on FD, Lou Williams has the best chance to crush his value number. He has not been playing to major upside, but the discount is massive from the $8K studs down to him. Williams can score and rack up assists leading that second unit.
Paul George – The price difference between PG-13 and Fred VanVleet is very close. I do not hate either guy, but the way FVV has played this series I would prefer to go to PG-13 as my top option here. He’s played 40+ minutes in each of the last two games and had 44+ fantasy points. Denver has to figure out how to slow him down as he seems to be back to full strength.
Marcus Smart – Smart does not have the massive upside of some of the other studs in that series, but he’s cheap and offers us some savings for a guy who should get 35-40 minutes.
Gary Harris – Harris is not known for his offense, but I’m happy his minutes are starting to creep back up after he missed much of the first round. Harris saw 35 minutes last game and had his best scoring night. His price remains cheap, so he offers us some upside and salary relief which is much needed today.
Jaylen Brown – Brown has quietly crushed in three of the last four games. The Celtics have a lot of other players and he sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, but I like the floor he provides with the massive near 40 minutes per night and his ability to do a little bit of everything to stuff the stat sheet.
Pascal Siakam – If Serge Ibaka is out, the Raptors may end up having to go smaller and we could see Siakam playing some center here. It would push him away from a good defender in Jayson Tatum, so it does make some sense for them to try this. Both Siakam and OG Anunoby are listed as SF eligible on this slate and I like both of them, but Siakam has much more upside.
Kawhi Leonard – He is super expensive and it makes it a tad tough to build around when I have other studs I want to pay for. My Kawhi love comes down to the Ibaka situation. If we get no Ibaka and Chris Boucher is in play, you can fit Kawhi easily. Otherwise, I’m more comfortable dropping down to a lower price point on my SF options so that I don’t have to end up punting somewhere else. It’s not that I am fading Kawhi, he’s still the likeliest high scorer. What I am fading is really that 60-70 point game from Kawhi that I can’t get close to by using Brown and/or Siakam and being able to spend elsewhere.
Jayson Tatum – I am not trying to jam Tatum into my lineups here, because we do have a ton of that $5K value here that makes some sense. Obviously, you can roll with him if you can afford it, but I don’t think you have to. His price is now up towards the $9K level and he’s really only doing 35-40 fantasy points, which is not great PP$ action. Plus we have more options here that make sense and have upside, so it’s the best place to swerve off the high priced chalk.
Daniel Theis – He lacks the massive ceiling, but he’s cheap enough where he can keep making or getting close to value. Remember we have very limited options on this slate and not every position is going to yield guys going 5-7X. This has already been in that range and in his worse case scenario he’s still giving you around 5X.
Michael Porter Jr – Porter is a boom or bust kind of play. His minutes fluctuate, but when he’s on, few guys here can put up the numbers he can. If the shot is dropping he can fill it up with 20 points in 20 minutes. He’s also a high volume rebounder.
Nikola Jokic – I’m not going to waste much time here. No other center has anywhere near the floor or ceiling of Nikola Jokic. You have to pay nearly double for him vs. everyone else, but he’s also the only guy that can score more than double the field.
Marc Gasol – Ivica Zubac is more consistent, but really none of these cheap options are very good. I lean Gasol here for today, because he might be asked to play more minutes if Ibaka can not go. It also may be the last time we see Marc Gasol and if so he could try to shine in that final game out.