Benny guides you through today’s Showdown slate in the wonderful world of NBA DFS!
Miami holds a 3-1 lead over the Celtics with a chance to close it out tonight. For Showdown purposes, this series is very different from the other one. The Lakers and Nuggets both rely heavily on a few key pieces to handle much of the offensive workload. Guys like Jokic and Murray for Denver and LeBron and Anthony Davis for the Lakers have huge usage rates that dwarf the rest of their respective teams. So when making Showdown lineups we basically have to shoehorn in as many of those main guys as possible and then try to figure out the rest.
This series we see something very different. The best player on the Heat is Jimmy Butler and he’s been a bad play for Showdowns this whole series. Bam has really only given us one upside game as well. Goran Dragic crushed in the opener of this series. Duncan Robinson had a big game in Game 2. Tyler Herro broke the last slate with a monstrous performance scoring the basketball. These guys are all relatively cheap and were needed in order to cash.
The Celtics have been more like the Lakers or Nuggets in this series. You are getting massive outperformance most games from Jayson Tatum, with everyone else playing a more secondary role. This is especially true the last two games as the Celtics worked Gordon Hayward back into the rotation as he is up to seeing 30 minutes a night right now. Outside of Tatum, Jaylen Brown had a big game 3, but most of the rest of this series has been pretty pedestrian in terms of production from the other main pieces of the Celtics.
1 – We know the Celtics production is more solidified at the top. Not paying for Tatum feels like a mistake and one that will put us behind the 8-ball. I’m not saying you have to use him in the Captain spot, but he is the likeliest high scorer from this game and has been in terms of fantasy production most games of this series. I will not make a single lineup today that does not have Tatum on it in one position or another.
2 – I also likely will be paying up for Brown on the Celtics. Brown does a little bit of everything and next to Tatum has been consistently seeing the most minutes per game for the Celtics. It’s tough to build lineups using one of the two guys here as your captain. If you do, I prefer Tatum over Brown and make the rest work some other way. Underneath you can make lineups building the two of these guys as the main pieces and filling in value around it which is how my main lineup is constructed today.
3- One thing we like for fantasy no matter the sport is concentration of fantasy points. The Lakers are a good example of this. The usage and production for LeBron and Anthony Davis are so high, because they have multiple guys who play minutes but produce little to nothing in terms of fantasy points. The same can be said of the bottom couple guys for Miami. Last game you had four guys with 35+ minutes and 20+ actual points in Herro, Dragic, Butler, and Bam Adebayo. The other four guys combined for just 9 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists in 84 minutes of action with none having more than 3 points, 3 rebounds, or 3 assists individually. While we are not pigeon holed into playing the top priced guy in Butler or Bam , we also have very little coming from the low end. The sweet spot on Miami is the middle and that’s two guys in Herro and Dragic. Dragic crushed in game 1 and played well throughout the playoffs for Miami. Herro is likely to be super highly owned off one of the more amazing games we have seen in the playoffs from a young player, but the point remains. These are the guys that have the ability to win you a GPP with upside and a slight discount on the price compared to their roles. Both guys played massive minutes last game and should continue to see that.
4- Favorite Cheap options
- Daniel Theis – He’s only $5K and at least he sees half the game. He’s not a big time scorer but he flirts with double-doubles even in less minutes. I have five or six guys that I like better here for raw points, but for points per dollar you will be hard pressed to find guys more efficient than Theis.
- Jae Crowder – Crowder lacks a big ceiling, but he makes up for it with a safe amount of minutes and the ability to do a bit of everything. Crowder can knock down a shot, grab some boards, get some defensive stats and even lucks into a few assists here or there. He’s not the upside guy that wins the GPP for you, but he’s the value that keeps pace and let’s you afford the guy who does.
- Robert Williams – The Celtics finally realized that Enes Kanter’s offense does not trump his lack of defense. Bam was abusing him earlier in the series and he could not be on the floor with that matchup. Robert Williams on the other hand is a lot more athletic and has slid into those minutes Kanter was playing. He’s a true flyer that will not see a lot of court time, but the hope is value can be reached on that cheap price due to him not needing to do too much to make it happen.