We do have a decent number of games on the day, but the main slate is only 4. The main slate also starts an hour earlier than usual today with lock being at 6pm EST. Looking at the totals, one game stands out over the rest by a wide margin. The Minnesota/Washington matchup features a total of 239.
UPDATE: Kawhi Leonard is going to be out for the Raptors. We have seen this play out numerous times before. Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam get the biggest bumps. I love Siakam now that Kawhi is out. I also think we need to keep looking at Serge Ibaka. More GPPish than cash game, but he should benefit also. Marc Gasol is tougher to predict for me. I would not use him in cash, more of a GPP guy that I like on game stacks.
We do have a decent number of games on the day, but the main slate is only 4. The main slate also starts an hour earlier than usual today with lock being at 6pm EST. Looking at the totals, one game stands out over the rest by a wide margin. The Minnesota/Washington matchup features a total of 239. The other three games are all at 215-219, so that Timberwolves/Wizards matchup is projected for 20 points over any other game we have available here. On such a short slate, it’s tough to not want to go heavy on that one.
The other major piece of potentially slate changing news is the status of Paul George. PG-13 has arguably played the best basketball of his career recently and that’s a high bar for anyone to get over. If PG13 sits, we have some tough choices to make in terms of studs. You want to look at guys like Bradley Beal and Karl-Anthony Towns because of the total of that contest, but a Thunder team without PG 13 would be a time for Westbrook to really shine. It’s not an ideal spot for the Thunder, which is what makes that such an interesting decision. No PG-13 would also open up some value on the Thunder and currently my roster consist of quite a few guys from both the Thunder and that Wolves/Wizards matchup which I think is the best way to play this slate in cash games.
Top Projected Totals
- Wizards 120
- Timberwolves 119
- Thunder 114
- Raptors 111.75
- Magic 110.75
Biggest Pace Bump
- Grizzlies +7.8
- Pistons +2.1
- Timberwolves +1.3
Highest Projection over Average
- Timberwolves +6.5
- Wizards +6
- Magic +4.5
- Grizzlies +3
Russell Westbrook – If PG-13 plays I’m less likely to play Westbrook for two reasons. One is that his usage wouldn’t be as high. I know both guys are still capable of each putting up 60, but I am nervous about the second reason. That second reason is that I don’t think the Grizzlies on the road are a good team. If PG-13 and Westbrook play, and both play well, I doubt both guys are going to see full run as this game could get ugly. Without PG-13 the game is likely to stay closer and that would also mean the Thunder are more likely to lean on Westbrook. I think he’s decent with PG-13, but arguably the best play on the slate without him.
Kyle Lowry – I have Lowry here almost by default. I tried hard to find some of these cheap guys I TRUST for cash, but the pickings are slim. Guys like Collin Sexton and Reggie Jackson are hit or miss. We may get some value on the Magic if DJ Augustin doesn’t play, but unless we get that news I can’t use guys like Isaiah Briscoe and Jerian Grant. Hell, even if we get that news I am a little wary of using either without knowing the minutes breakdown. Lowry has at least been playing big minutes and producing solid games every time out with occasional upside.
Tomas Satoransky – I know he’s seen a slight regression in production lately, but let’s look at this objectively. He’s still routinely playing over 30 minutes. His price has taken a nose dive with DK asking under $5K for him and FanDuel having him at only $5500. Satoransky also plays in the #1 game to target today as his Wizards are favored by 1 at home against the Timberwolves and have the highest projected team total by a wide margin.
Note: The Magic may offer some cheap value to us if Augustin can’t play. I prefer Briscoe to Grant, but honestly would wait to see which of the two steps into the starting role. Both are cheap and likely to split the game with one seeing a few more minutes than the other. The guy who starts is likelier to play more minutes, so that is the one I would target.
Bradley Beal – Beal is a stud. Not having John Wall around only makes it easier for the average person to realize it, but he’s always been very very good. I have Beal projected for nearly 20 points over every other SG option on this main slate today. That’s a wide margin and a lot of production that is tougher to make up on short slates. He’s the top scorer on the team with the highest projected total here today in the best game to target with the highest total and lowest spread between the teams. Beal has routinely been giving us a 50+ point floor and has upside well into the 60s on his best days.
Terrence Ross – Ross doesn’t start so people dismiss him, but he is a viable and consistent scorer that has produced in fantasy. He’s cheap on both sites at $5K and $5400. He put up 30+ and went for over 6X in each of the last few games he has played. Ross is not the upside guy to get you a massive score, but he’s been overlooked and he is cheap and consistently producing value above the cash line pace.
Luke Kennard – I love Kennard at the price today. The guy has gone for 30+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 and is priced at $4300 on DK and only $5200 on FanDuel. That is a lot of productivity for a cheap price. Ever since the Pistons made some moves to ship out guys like Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson, Kennard has stepped into a bigger role with consistent minutes. He’s cheap and a capable producer, so for the cheap price he is a great salary saver option that has a high floor and a ceiling at this price.
Kawhi Leonard – PG13 is the best SF option today in terms of potential for raw points, but the chance of blowout and his health status scare me. Kawhi is a significant enough discount that I would be more inclined to go here in cash than risk playing PG 13. Kawhi is coming off a 30+ minute game where he put up 50+. He’s a sizeable $1500ish below PG13 and has a high floor to, so take the savings today.
Cedi Osman – Cedi Osman is a guy who has consistently played 30+ minutes in five straight games. He’s also a guy who does everything well, but nothing great. He’s not a big time scorer, but he can pop for 20+ sometimes. He’s not a massive rebounder, but he’ll grab 5ish and add that to 3-4 assists. At the end of the game you don’t see any massive numbers, but 12-18 points, 4-7 rebounds, and 3-5 assists add up. Osman is still pretty cheap and with the way he stuffs a stat sheet you tend to get around value with the potential for upside every night with him.
Bruno Caboclo – If you need to save today, Big Bruno is the guy. The Grizzlies are thin with some wing injuries and Caboclo is stepping into bigger minutes because of it. He’s played at least 27 minutes in three straight games, topped off by 34 minutes last game with 34 fantasy points. Really at his near min price salary a game of 25ish would be more than enough. The guy is cheap and right now seeing minutes. Nothing sexy, but you need that cheap price to fit in multiple guys with high upside from that high total Wolves/Wizards game.
Kevin Love – Assuming Love plays today, I’m on board with getting exposure to him. He’s still not back up to his pre-injury top in price. He’s also not playing over 30 minutes, but the production when on the floor is top notch. His production over the last 4 games has been over 41 fantasy points on average. He’s played a little over 24 minutes the last few after falling a bit short the few games before. As the minutes rise and his per minute average on the floor remains high, he’s going to offer a solid floor with upside.
Aaron Gordon – Gordon never gets cheated. He is more volatile in his returns than I normally like in cash games, but the volatility is not a bad thing when his floor is high and that volatile return gives him high upside. Gordon pops off for high 40s every once in awhile. On his “BAD GAMES” he still ends up in the low 30s, so it’s solid.
Jerami Grant – The Thunder PF is not a guy who tends to have big upside. If he ever would, it would likely come with PG13 out as that is when his usage has spiked a bit. He’s still pretty reasonably priced and has a high floor due to his high minutes. Grant is never going to be the #1 option on that team, but in cash he has enough of a floor to be viable and that ceiling does jump when PG 13 is out.
Karl Anthony-Towns – He’s going to be super chalk, but I’m one of the people jamming him in and not stressing it. Towns is the big producer on his team. His team plays in the highest total game on the slate. His matchup is one of the best as the Wizards interior defense is weak. All those things come together to put Towns in a great spot today. He’s not cheap, but he does project well above the rest of the field at center and the only other guy at any position who projects to produce near his level is Westbrook.
NOTE: This slate is one where the position with the most viable plays is also the one where we get to use only one guy on FanDuel. All of my DraftKings rosters have multiple centers as we have quite a few of them. Andre Drummond, Nikola Vucevic, and Jonas Valanciunas are expensive options that project out solid for me today too. We also have Marc Gasol and Joakim Noah for cheaper. On DK, I have tried to squeeze as many of these guys in as possible, because they all project out near or over value. The reason I have so much Westbrook tonight is because I have other ways I can go at nearly every price point that make sense for me at center, so it becomes a position that you can wait on and use who you need to fit to make everything else work.