Big 9 game slate for NBA DFS on Friday. It’s a nice one too with lots of options that make sense for cash. I have a ton of names on my list and all of them are solid plays I like. It’s going to be a tough night narrowing it down for cash. One thing I wanted to mention is…
Big 9 game slate for NBA DFS on Friday. It’s a nice one too with lots of options that make sense for cash. I have a ton of names on my list and all of them are solid plays I like. It’s going to be a tough night narrowing it down for cash. One thing I wanted to mention is that pricing is a little out of whack today. We have some guys significantly cheaper and/or more expensive on one site or the other. That’s why I had trouble narrowing the list down because, on some sites, I prefer certain guys to other guys based on the discount I am getting. I will try to mention them as we go through as some of them are far off and just stand out. I kept the descriptions a little brief today because we have a lot of guys to talk about. I’ll have it narrowed down a little more as news comes out during the day, and I’ll be on livestream with Thad again tonight so we will break it down then.
TOP PROJECTED TOTALS
- Raptors – 117.5
- Hornets – 117.5
- Thunder – 114.5
- Pacers – 113.25
- Pistons – 113.25
- Timberwolves – 113
BIGGEST PACE BUMP
- Grizzlies: +5.8
- Pistons: +5.7
- Pacers: +3.9
- Jazz: +3.4
HIGHEST PROJECTION OVER AVERAGE
- Hornets: +7
- Magic: +6.5
- Pistons: +6.5
- Pacers: +5
- Grizzlies: +5
TOP CASH PLAYS
Jeff Teague – Let’s start right off the bat with one of the bigger discrepancies in pricing. Teague has been great the last few games with Wiggins out (Wiggins is expected back). On FanDuel he’s a tad over $7000, but on DraftKings he is only $5900. The matchup for Minnesota is a good one against a Knicks team that slightly paces the up. Karl-Anthony Towns is also questionable, so losing his scoring would put more pressure on the rest of the guys to pick up the slack and Teague is more than capable.
Kyle Lowry – Toronto does have the co-highest projected total on the day and Fred VanVleet is still out. Delon Wright was traded and that means Lowry has a higher floor in minutes and production than usual. His price is reasonable at just over $7K on Dk and $8K on FD.
Darren Collison – Tyreke Evans may be out today, which could help Collison as he will handle the ball and create even more. He’s played well enough anyway and still has a reasonable price. Throw in the matchup against fast-paced New Orleans who are infighting and have star players asking for fewer minutes and this spot looks like one the Packers should take advantage of. It’s a good matchup for point guards, even with Elf coming back.
Isaiah Briscoe – Most people don't even know he is on Orlando, but more importantly they don't realize he’s played more minutes than DJ Augustin lately. Part of that may have to do with the Magic blowing people out recently, but Briscoe is producing and is dirt cheap. He’s likely to get only half a game, but he’s been going well beyond 6X even with just that many minutes.
Zach Lavine – He is not my number 1 shooting guard option on the day, but I’m not looking to pay up for Luca or Mitchell, so he’s the most expensive option I would go to. Chicago does project for above-average production and Lavine has been producing the best of this crew. He lacks upside with everyone healthy, but keep an eye on Kris Dunn who is listed as questionable. No Dunn would boost up Lavine.
Evan Fournier – The Orlando Magic look awesome right now, steamrolling opponents coming into the break. Part of the resurgence has been strong wing play from Fournier. His price is still reasonable. I don’t think there is a ton of upside with him, but he’s going for 30+ and is priced around $6K, where that’s a 5-7X return.
Tim Hardaway Jr. – Another guy with a low ceiling, but he’s priced around $5K, playing around 30 minutes and is producing about a fantasy point per minute. Outside of Luka, he’s the next most trustworthy Maverick as the big man situation is a bit of a crap shoot with low ceiling players that do not even have safe floors.
Kent Bazemore – Kevin Huerter has played well all season and always sees minutes. He’s going to be out tonight. The two guys likeliest to benefit are Kent Bazemore and Deandre Bembry, but Bazemore has the better chance of producing. Bazemore is a scorer and has been a solid productive starter in this league before. Injuries really were his problem this season. Now, he should see a bump in minutes, and he’s already being productive, but in fewer minutes. He’s cheap as hell and likely to exceed value today, so he’s a very solid and likely popular option.
Wayne Ellington – In his second game in Detroit they played him 31 minutes and he’s the kind of guy they need. With Blake and Andre inside, you need guys who can open the floor and that is Ellington’s specialty. I much prefer him as a cheap option on DK for two reasons. One is that he is under $4K over there, nearly $1000 cheaper than FD. Plus DK gives you that extra 0.5 bonus for every 3-pointer you knock down and that’s something Ellington does often. At $3800 on DK, every 3 is worth 3.5 points for him, so he’s going to knock down a couple and get you 3-4X just on that. Anything else he adds in his 30 minutes of court time is gravy to get you to value.
Paul George – He’s playing the best basketball we have seen from him. Knocking down shots, going to the hole, rebounding. PG 13 is officially the #1 option on the Thunder, and it’s no knock on Westbrook. Both guys can and have coexisted and both have gone off together, including triple-doubles in the same game. I will say history favors PG 13 > Westbrook today, as in the first two matchups George went nuts, including an 80+ fantasy point effort that included 40+ actual points last meeting. Westbrook failed to reach 5X in either of those last two Jazz matchups, so I know which Thunder guy I’d rather spend on here.
Rudy Gay – Derrick White is expected back, but gay is still putting up over 6X and his price remains cheap.
Otto Porter – Ton of minutes with him for the Bulls and the price is reasonable. Not much upside, but he’s got a high floor with high consistent minutes and production since coming over.
Kenrich Williams – So we have not really discussed the Pelicans much yet, but you have Darius Miller unlikely to play. You also have Anthony Davis playing just 24 minutes on average over the 4 games since he returned. Jahlil Okafor’s minutes have slashed to match Davis, as the two basically split 48. Now Jrue Holiday is also going to play fewer minutes for load maintenance too. And E’Twaun Moore is questionable. I expected Kenrich to go back to the bench, but instead, he’s still playing well into the 30s minutes a night and producing the same. He’s no longer a cheap option must play, but for the production, he is not expensive either.
Bojan Bogdanovic – I always like Bojan but think he’s just a tad expensive. If he was $500 cheaper, I would play him more, but he tends to get you 28-33 and is priced at $5500-$6K. There is no ceiling there normally. Today, Tyreke Evans is likely out and Myles Turner could be too. Evans could get him a few more minutes and no Turner would mean a boost to everyone’s production as well. That’s two potential reasons to think Bojan could break out of that range today, so If Evans is out. I’ll consider him in cash.
DeAndre Bembry – He’ll be popular with Huerter likely out. I prefer Bazemore of the two, but Bembry is SF eligible on FD and he’s basically right around $4000 on both sites. He’s not as productive on the floor as Bazemore, but he does do a little of everything and is dirt cheap with a minutes boost incoming.
Julius Randle – Anthony Davis is playing half the game, so is Jahlil Okafor. The guy who played most of the game and was producing for the Pelicans was Julius Randle last time out. He also could get a boost if Myles Turner sits, as that would eliminate a good rebounder and shot blocker he would have had to contend with.
Blake Griffin – The matchup is with the Atlanta Hawks. I could go on, but that’s all I should have to say. Blake is the same price on both sites basically. That makes him a much better relative play on FanDuel. Also on FD, he’s $1000+ cheaper than his teammate Andre Drummond. On DK, they are basically the same price and I prefer Drummond to Blake. Not going to argue with anyone playing both together in a GPP given the matchup.
Lauri Markkanen – He has gotten expensive, but the Bulls are thin in the frontcourt and Markkanen has consistently put up 40-50 fantasy points.
Serge Ibaka – Even with Gasol in the mix, he’s still been putting up 40+ fantasy points recently.
Bobby Portis – He can always produce, and now he’s getting the consistent minutes to do it in Washington. Not cheap, but he’s producing around value for the price.
Dario Saric – I love Saric. He produced well in Philly and was killed with fewer minutes after the trade. He’s now working his way ahead of Taj Gibson in the rotation and putting up near 30 fantasy points a night. He’s still priced at or below $5K, so you are talking a 6X return.
Paul Millsap – Another one of these crazy mispriced guys. On DK, he is $4600 and took back his starting job last time out. He had a monster game I would not expect him to repeat nightly, but he’s cheap enough on DK where even a decent game in his newfound 30-minute role and he pays it off. He’s $2K more expensive on FanDuel, and I honestly don't even think he’s a horrible play there, but at $4600 on DK, I have a hard time not playing him for that discount.
Ivan Rabb – Jonas Valanciunas is away from the team on a personal matter, and now Jaren Jackson is also questionable. Would be a lot of minutes for Ivan Rabb and Joakim Noah if Jackson joins Valanciunas on the bench.
Nikola Jokic – Jokic at home against a Dallas defense that consists of Kleber, Powell, Mejri and Dirk. I like the odds on that one. The Nuggets are getting healthy, but I still expect them to lean heavily on Jokic. The fact he can produce in every stat category is something underrated, especially at the center position.
Andre Drummond – Again here, the big price difference. He’s about $9K on DK and almost $11K on FD today. The matchup is with Atlanta, and Drummond has not only been dominating the boards with 15-20 routinely per game, but he’s also been taking more shots, which has led to these 50-60 point games lately. On DK, I like him over Blake; on FD, I prefer Blake at the position and for the $2K savings. No argument with playing either given the matchup.
Cody Zeller – Not much upside, but Zeller gets his 24-30 minutes and puts up his 30 fantasy points and does it for $5-6K. There is no upside, but the guy is constantly around value like clockwork.
Robin Lopez – I mention that with Wendell Carter out and Portis/Parker traded away, the Bulls couldn't release Lopez. Not only could they not release him, but they need him to play and play big minutes. Carter will be back next year and they may add help in free agency, but for now, they are stuck giving Lopez minutes. Lopez is not great, but he doesn't suck either. You are getting an NBA caliber center playing 24-30 minutes for peanuts. I mean he is a basically Cody Zeller with a $2000 discount and slightly less athleticism at this point of his career.
Joakim Noah – We already know Jonas Valanciunas is away from the team on a personal matter, but we also may be without Jaren Jackson. Even if Jackson plays, Noah had a monster game with 30+ minutes and fantasy points when Jonas Valanciunas was awaiting his debut. His minutes dropped back to 20ish with JV working into the mix. Noah could go back to 30 here while JV is out, and even if he comes up a bit short of a fantasy point per minute, he’s still likely to end up around 25-30 which would be 6X at his price.