So this is a shitshow of a slate for NBA DFS on Sunday. On DraftKings we have two separate slates with the first being a two gamer starting at 3PM and the second a three gamer that starts with the 6PM game. FanDuel decided not to even include the 6PM game…
So this is a shitshow of a slate for NBA DFS on Sunday. On DraftKings we have two separate slates with the first being a two gamer starting at 3PM and the second a three gamer that starts with the 6PM game. FanDuel decided not to even include the 6PM game or the early ones on their slate, which currently only has the main slate as a 2 gamer with the 730 and 830 game. I know it’s gross and frankly playing cash games on 2-3 game slates is not a way I will recommend you making money. With that said, I wanted to kind of touch on the games a little and give you guys my views, because I know you are all going to at least play a few bucks anyway and I want to try to make sure you fellow degenerates don;t go broke. So with that in mind, here’s my breakdown for the various slates.
The 3 PM slate consists of only two games. The first one is between the Portland Trailblazers and Dallas Mavericks. The second is between the Lakers and the 76ers. The second game is expected to be higher scoring than the Blazers/Mavericks, so just based off that in cash we should be looking to be heavier on that contest. The value on this slate comes from the frontcourt of the Dallas MAvericks and the guys on the Lakers not named Lebron James. Portland’s production is very much centered around the high priced options and the same can be said for the 76ers (With Reddick as a possible exception). Due to the return of Lebron, the Lakers entire team seems to have taken a price cut, so the secondary pieces in this high total game are very interesting now. On the MAvericks, they traded their whole team except for Luka and one of the biggest pieces that came back is Porzingis who is out. That has made the frontcourt very thin and the guys seeing the minutes relatively cheap for their new roles.
- Joel Embiid – Embiid struggled vs. Denver, shooting just 4-17, but still finished with 40+ DK points. HE had routinely been playing in the 60s and should get back there as long as the game stays close. LA is a spot we pick on with centers too and have with great success. I’m looking for a bounce back from Embiid provided we don;t get news he is hurt and sitting.
- LeBron James – Lebron did a little bit of everything in that win over the Celtics. This is a much much friendlier match up too. Lebron is a huge stud and the Lakers need wins. I see him continuing his dominant play. The guy can do everything. He’s going to score, he’s going to set up teammates with his court vision, and this team needs him to help rebound as well. He dropped 70+ in one of the toughest matchups against the Celtics and now draws one of the best matchups against the high paced 76ers team that tends to play high scoring games.
Top Options to help fit the Studs
- Kyle Kuzma – That $5500 DK price for a guy with his scoring upside is to cheap. I worry about his minutes and opportunity too, but he showed last game he will still see enough minutes and shots to pay off his current price tag. I prefer Kuzma to Brandon Ingram, but I think both guys make sense in the higher total game with discounted prices from where they have been. The ceiling is no longer as high with Lebron back taking minutes from both, but the adjusted price keeps them as cash game worthy.
- Dwight Powell – Powell is my favorite of the three big men who are seeing minutes and producing currently for the MAvericks. He doesn;t play as many minutes as Kleber and is not as versatile as Dorian Finney-Smith, but he is the guy I trust more to produce even in less minutes. If you decide to go heavy on the Mavericks game, all three of these guys are cheap. You are getting about 27-32 minutes projected for each at barely over $4000, so they are definitely going to be needed to round out lineups.
- JaVale McGee – The trade that shocked a lot of people was Zubac getting dealt for Muscala. What that does do for the Lakers is open up minutes for McGee again. McGee is not a guy who routinely can handle 35 minutes, but he is a high per minute producer and now does project for 24-30 minutes a game going forward. He’s under $5K on DraftKings and has that solid upside into the low and mid 30s.
Others To Consider: JJ Redick, Rajon Rondo, CJ McCollum
I will talk about this game by itself for two reasons. The easy one is that it is not on the slate for FanDuel. This game is only available on three game draftkings slate and any random all day action. I don't play All Day slates on FanDuel even when they are offered for cash, because you have no late swap and have to lock a lineup in early without the benefit of all the days news which is not out when the first game tips off. The SECOND and MORE IMPORTANT reason is that you probably want exposure here due to the game likely having the highest total on the late slate. The key thing to watch is the status of Devin Booker. The Suns have lost 12 of the 15 games he missed and many of them by large numbers. HE missed the last two and they not only lost, but didn;t look good in either of them.
If Booker is out, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson, and Kelly Oubre all benefit with added usage and even minutes. All of them would be in play against the fast paced Sacramento Kings. Jackson is my favorite for cash without Booker and Mikal Bridges is the best priced of them all. I don;t mind the other two in Ayton and Oubre, but they are not the cash plays Jackson and Bridges are.
If Booker does play, he is always worthy of cash game play. The guy tends to play well over 30 minutes and take 20+ shots with assists and some other stats. His presence also knocks down guys like Jackson and Bridges who get more shots and usage with him out. Either way the matchup is too good not to have exposure to the Suns.
Buddy Hield – Buddy has four games in a row with at least 33 minutes and at least 35 fantasy points. In terms of cash, he’s the safest and most solid producer. Guys like Fox, Bagley, and Cauley-Stein have higher ceilings, but they are all guys who may play great and then come back and miss value badly. Buddy has safe minutes and always gets his shots and does enough other things to at least not kill you. In GPPs, I’m not as big a fan, but in cash I like him more than the trio listed.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – The only other safe King for me is Bogdan. He doesn’t have the upside either, but at $5K on DK he is playing 30 minutes routinely at a fantasy point per minute or better. The matchup is ideal and he’s seen more minutes with Fox not playing his best ball right now.
Note: This game could end up 120-121 with a ton of production on both sides of it. If you wanted to stack this one, I would not even argue against including guys like Fox, WCS, Bagley, Barnes, or Bjelica. My problem is that’s a lot of names of guys who could get you 20 or 40 and they can't all get us 40. In GPPs, I’m fine rolling 2-3 of them.
The last two games on DraftKings and the only two on FanDuel are polar opposites. Both games have a total in the low 220 range, but the similarities end there. The first game features Orlando taking on Atlanta. Orlando is a slight favorite on the road. This game projects as a close one with a spread under 2. The other game is the Miami Heat visiting the Golden State Warriors. This game has a spread of near 15. This one is most likely the blowout of the two. Could Miami keep it close and make this a spot we want a lot of exposure to? Sure in a GPP you can go that route, but in cash I wouldn’t. In cash I want to be over exposed to the Orlando Atlanta games on the FanDuel slate and almost entirely exposed to that game or the Suns/Kings on DraftKings. You guys already know my beef with Golden State in cash. When you have so many stars, not all of them can go off and when any of them are capable of going off, it becomes tough to pick out only one or two of them for cash game play. Miami is also not an easy team to navigate as they have a deep rotation and some of the best plays are pricey, while the cheap plays have upside, but lack consistency.
Guys I like from the Late slate for Cash
- Nikola Vucevic
- Aaron Gordon
- Terrence Ross
- Trae Young
- Kevin Huerter
Dion Waiters – Wade was banged up last game and Waiters started and finished up playing 32 minutes. Wade may not even play at all today and while the production for Waiters was not great last game, with no Ellington and no Wade and Tyler Johnson traded away, the role is there for him to take. He played a ton of minutes that last game and took a lot of shots. If he repeats that effort, he is likely to make more of those shots and finish with more production for a still very cheap price. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow also benefit, but at their prices the upside is capped a bit.