Small 6 game slate of NBA DFS action on Monday. We have two games with sub 210 totals, 3 in the 220s, and one upside outlier at 238 in the game between the Pelicans/Clippers. We do have injury news, but much of it is known. The two main things we are waiting on are the statuses of Kyrie Irving and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Kyrie is the one I am more interested in. If he sits out…
Small 6 game slate of NBA DFS action on Monday. We have two games with sub 210 totals, 3 in the 220s, and one upside outlier at 238 in the game between the Pelicans/Clippers. We do have injury news, but much of it is known. The two main things we are waiting on are the statuses of Kyrie Irving and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Kyrie is the one I am more interested in. If he sits out, we have a cheap Terry Rozier who crushed last week when Kyrie was sitting. Gordon Hayward also went nuts in those games, so those two guys would get a big boost. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson would hurt guys like DeMarre Carroll and Rodions Kurucs who have benefitted with minutes bumps at PF with him out. It’s a tough matchup anyway with the Celtics, but RHJ’s presence would definitely have me pulling them out of any lineups. The rest of the injury news is stuff that is not new. The Jazz are still missing all three main point guard options. Harden is still without Gordon and Paul for the Rockets. Rudy Gay also remains out for the Spurs. Again, none of that is new news and you will see the same names we have been looking at with those guys already out again here today.
UPDATE: So I caught the Celtics news of Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart right before we published this, but since then we have more news. Marco Bellinelli is out, so take him off the list today. Clint Capela is also out, which is going to open up minutes for some near min priced guys on the Rockets. Marqueese Chriss and Nene Hilario are both available today. Neither guy has played much due to injuries, so I doubt either goes for 30 minutes right off the bat. The other option is Isaiah Hartenstein who they recalled from the D-League today. PJ Tucker is the PF here normally, so this team already was hurting for size. Without Capela today those guys are going to have to piece together 48 minutes of center and probably a lot of the PF minutes too. Other wise you are looking at the Rockets going super small with Harden at SF and some combination of guys like Danuel House and Gerald Green at the other forward spot. These Rockets are basically min priced at low $3000-$3500 range on both sites. It also is going to mean even more of the offense needs to come from the rest of the starters.
Top Projected Totals
- Clippers 120.5
- Pelicans 117.5
- Spurs 116.25
- Kings 114.75
- Celtics/Blazers 112.25
Biggest Pace Bump
- Blazers +4.5
- Spurs +2.1
- Grizzlies +1.9
- Clippers +1.2
Highest Projection over Average
- Clippers +5
- Spurs +4
- Celtics, Jazz, Blazers, Kings, Pelicans all over average, but by a point or less
D’Aaron Fox – I like both sides of the Fox/Lillard matchup actually, but I’ll take the discount on Fox over Lillard in cash. Fox tends to see bigger minutes in close games and Lillard is not known for defense, so the matchup is good for him. Fox not only plays big minutes, but he contributes across the board. His last three games are 24/7/4/3/1, 12/5/6/1/1, and 24/3/5/3/1. Literally contributing in every possible way he can to score fantasy points.
Derrick White – San Antonio has one of the better spots today, projected for the second highest number of points above average and owning the second highest pace bump. White has routinely been playing around 30 minutes and putting up around a fantasy point per minute while doing so.
Shabazz Napier – The price is no longer dirt cheap, but he’s still seeing enough minutes to justify a punt on him.
Terry Rozier – If Kyrie sits, he should be 100% owned again, especially at $3700 on DraftKings and $3900 on FanDuel. If Kyrie plays, I’m not using him, but with Kyrie listed as questionable we have to mention it, because it’s an autoplay if he sits.
UPDATE: Kyrie is out and so is Marcus Smart. We may get 40 minutes for sub $4K from a guy who produces when given the chance over the last two years. If you haven’t already, in all formats today, just LOCK BUTTON him in and figure out the rest.
James Harden – Just keep riding the wave guys. So far it’s paid to start your rosters with Harden and figure the rest out with a punt or two here and there. The guy has a mid 40s usage rate, meaning he’s responsible for something on nearly half the possessions. Guys with usage rates in the 30s are rare. Guys having games with usage rates of 40 is rarer still and Harden is consistently in the mid 40s. He’s getting 20+ shots and racking up 10+ assists and coming close to double digit rebounds while playing 36+ minutes a night, even when the scores are a tad lopsided. We have other options and other good options, but HArden is now going off at 60-70% owned even at the price and it’s been working.
Donovan Mitchell – So the Jazz SG has seen a price bump, but it’s warranted off a couple 50+ fantasy point showings. He is now the point guard due to injuries to Rubio, Exum, and Neto. He is seeing more minutes, still taking his usual number of shots, and now also adding in more of the other categories due to the minutes and role he is being asked to play. Mitchell did this much of last season, so it’s no shock. He is pricey, but not overly expensive given the change in the way things are in Utah right now.
D’Angelo Russell – I do not normally want to pick on the Celtics perimeter defenders, but I think Russell is sneaky today. He sucked a few games ago against the Celtics, but that was the tail end of a B2B for the Nets and they were never really in that game. Russell is really the only consistent guy you can count on in Brooklyn except for that game. I wanted to play other pieces, but guys like Dinwiddie, Harris, Carroll, Davis, Kurucs, Allen are all more GPP type plays. They have a day they pop for 35 and then a game of sub 20 fantasy points. You can't count on anyone outside of Russell in any type of cash game with the possible exception of NApier and that’s more because of his price.
UPDATE: Jaylen Brown – We get a two for one here today with both Kyrie and MArcus Smart out. Brown is now a fabulous play. He is cheap, has upside due to increased minutes and is already a decent producer, so you know he’s going to play well.
Marco Belinelli – He’s cheap and producing enough. I know that doesn;t sound like a ringing endorsement, but he’s able to get you 25+ for under $4K. Pairing him with Harden makes it easy to fit Harden in and likely helps keep you ahead of the cash line pace.
Update: Gordon Hayward is now my #1 SF play on the day. His two monster games recently came when Kyrie was out. Not only is Kyrie out, but Marcus Smart is too, so we have a ton of perimeter minutes and usage to dish out to guys like Rozier, Brown, and Hayward. I love all three today at the prices.
Danilo Gallinari – I honestly don't love this position today on FanDuel. On DraftKings you can move SG and PF guys that have dual eligibility in here if you needed to and I likely will. On FanDuel the guy I like best for a high floor is probably Gallo. The Clippers have the top total on the day, are projected over average, and paced up. Gallo is one of the few guys on this team that producers and plays big minutes. Him and Tobias Harris tend to see the most minutes and Gallo, Harrell, and Harris tend to do most of the fantasy producing. The other two are more volatile in their returns. Gallo is the safest of the three. He likely also has the lowest ceiling of the three, but that’s not a major concern in cash games.
Evan Turner – Turner is still pretty cheap and Sacramento does pace up the Blazers. If Harkless remains out, which looks likely, Turner is the guy getting a few extra minutes. He’s already a decent producer and cheap, so a few extra minutes should have him at around 5-6X on both sites or better.
Royce O’Neale – While it’s true a bunch of guys benefit from the point guards being out and Mitchell sliding over to play PG, Royce O’Neale sees the biggest benefit. He was barely playing any minutes and now is routinely playing 30+. The other guys get a slight bump in usage and a slight bump in minutes, but O’neale is now on par with guys like Crowder and Ingles. Maybe a tad less productive than Ingles, but if the minutes and usage are not far apart, it makes sense to save $1500+ on O’Neale instead of Ingles.
Anthony Davis – Best player with huge ceiling in highest total game on the day. I still prefer Harden if I can afford to pay up for just one. I think you can try to squeeze in both, but you do have other options here at PF as well. SG and PF are the top 2 positions on the day in terms of depth and upside. Whether or not you choose to try to play Davis, I do think the bulk of cash salary today should be spent on SG and PF.
Blake Griffin – He sat out a game on a late scratch, but looked pretty damn good putting up 44 real life points on his way to a monster fantasy game last time out. The matchup is not ideal, but it’s also not as tough as it was last year. Griffin is definitely going to score and may even need to do more rebounding as Drummond has to contend with Gobert. Blake always gives you a solid to upside type effort and even though the price is high, I like him for the discount off Davis. It’s not a massive amount of money, but it does make roster building easier alongside Harden.
LaMarcus Aldridge – The Spurs have one of the better matchups on the day and Aldridge has one of the best spots to take advantage of it. The Hornets are playing Biyombo and Hernangomez at the Center spot and Marvin Williams at the 4. Those are the guys LMA gets to work against today. Gasol and Poeltl are combining for about 30ish minutes a night, meaning you still get some LMA at center, which helps keep the rebound totals high. Without Gay they can also rely on him to help score and he should be able to do that in this matchup. LMA has had some explosions and some implosions, but usually when a game is close and the matchup benefits him he produces at or above average.
Montrezl Harrell – Normally Harrell is more of a GPP guy as he has a high ceiling, but is not always delivering on it. This total is outrageous and the pace projects to be hot. I also think the Pelicans are too athletic for the Clippers to play Gortat and Boban much here, so Harrell should see one of his higher minute games. He is a very good per minute producer, so the more minutes we like him for the more production. The same goes for the pace bump the Clippers get, so lots of reasons to expect high productivity from Harrell today.
Al-Farouq Aminu – I want Portland exposure against the Kings and I’m getting it with the forwards in cash. Nurkic, Lillard, and McCollum are all guys who can go off in GPPs, but none of them are consistently great and they need to be to justify the prices. The cheap options are Aminu and Turner. Aminu plays more in close games, which Vegas and I expect this to be. He tends to see around 30 minutes and produce a near double-double. It’s only 27-32 fantasy points, but that’s 5-6X at his price.
JaMychal Green – Green has played exceptionally well in the last few games, putting up monster scores. I always worry about his minutes, which is why I tend to use him more as a GPP guy. Still with his recent production and his price, even if he loses a few minutes he can return around cash game value for us. He’s not my favorite option, but I’m definitely considering him as a viable play.
Rudy Gobert – With the point guards out, Gobert has done a tad more scoring. It probably has to do with Mitchell penetrating more and dumping it off to him for finishes. Mitchell is more of a slasher and draws more of a crowd when he does than the other guys the Jazz have playing point guard normally. Either way you have seen a benefit for Gobert in recent outings. He has four straight double-doubles with a minimum of 14 rebounds in each of them. He’s also averaged 3 combined steals and blocks, which means he’s putting up 35 points just off of that worst case scenario over the last four.
Al Horford – I was already high on Horford due to the matchup, but the news with Kyrie and Smart being out now makes him even better. There is a higher likelihood this game stays close now and also a bigger need for secondary scorers to do some work. The matchup is great and now I have more confidence he will be needed to play full minutes. The price is also reasonable and a discount if you need to save. This makes Horford a guy who stands out when you crunch the numbers.