Bristol, my favorite race. Racing at its best. 500 lap night event…
Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race DFS Breakdown
- Bristol Motor Speedway
- Saturday 8/17/19 – 7:30 PM
- .53 mile, Concrete
Last Race Notables: A Busch has won the last four here, with Kyle Busch winning the last three of four, including earlier this year.
- Laps Led – Blaney: 158, Logano: 146, Kyle Busch: 71, Keselowski: 40, Elliott: 38, Bowyer: 24
- Start/Finish – Kyle Busch 17/1, Kurt Busch 27/2, Suárez 20/8, DiBenedetto 21/12, Ty Dillon 24/15, Wallace 28/20
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. Only one article this week with race on Saturday, all-inclusive with qualifying and practices complete. Normally, we put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
BASS PRO SHOPS NRA NIGHT RACE DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($12,700) – Starting 31st. BEAST! 16 top 10’s, 11 top 5’s and eight wins here at Bristol.
Denny Hamlin ($10,700) – Starting 1st. Short track guy. Starting on the pole. Nice pick for dominator other than Kyle. 13 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and a win here at Bristol.
Kurt Busch ($9,500) – Starting 4th. Busch/Busch weekend. I will start a number of lineups this way. Not quite as impressive as his brother, but pretty close. 19 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s and six wins here at Bristol. Finished 2nd and 1st in his last two here.
Kevin Harvick ($12,200) – Starting 8th. Harvick finally picking it up here in time for a playoff run. He has 19 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s and two wins here at Bristol.
Kyle Larson ($9,200) – Starting 2nd. Another driver starting to run better after a tough year. Larson runs well here at Bristol. His last five here are as follows: 19th, 2nd, 2nd, 9th, 6th.
Clint Bowyer ($8,200) – Starting 20th. A mess of a year for Bowyer. Fighting for the playoffs. I think Bowyer steps up here at Bristol where he has a lot of experience and some nice runs. In his last five here, he has finished 7th, 6th, 8th, 19th and 2nd.
Alex Bowman ($8,400) – Starting 10th. Bowman has run well here in the Hendrick #88, with a little trouble earlier in the year. I think he chalks that up to bad racing luck and has another solid run this weekend. Finished 23rd, 8th and 5th in his last three. Solid top 10 again this weekend for Bowman.
Erik Jones ($8,900) – Starting 9th. GPP here. Was very fast in the two practices. Up and down here at Bristol: 24th, 5th, 26th, 2nd, 17th. Trend is for a solid run tonight.
Jimmie Johnson ($7,000) – Starting 30th. Fighting for his playoff life. Has been uncharacteristically bad lately. I am not betting against JJ. I have a feeling he pulls some magic here at the end of the year. 21 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s and two wins here at Bristol.
William Byron (6,800) – Starting 21st. Price point and how much he has improved this year. GPP, as he hasn’t been great at Bristol. He’s just been getting better and better each time out on a great team.
Wrecking Ricky Stenhouse ($6,600) – Starting 15th. Another guy fighting for his playoff life. Wreckin Ricky will push em all out of the way today. He runs pretty well here at Bristol. Six top 10’s and four top 5’s. Should be fun to watch him tonight.
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700) – Starting 7th. Fast in both practices. Will or at least should be popular. Running the best of his career and should have a solid run here. Does lack the experience at this bumping and banging track, but his speed may counter that.
BASS PRO SHOPS NRA NIGHT RACE PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Denny Hamlin
- Sleeper – Ryan Blaney
Drivers to go over DK scoring
- Kyle Busch
Drivers to go under DK scoring
Last week’s Consumers Energy 400 results
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.