For starters, welcome back, friends! I’ve never understood why the teams that played on Wednesday last week get Tuesday the following week and then Tuesday gets Wednesday. Just keep it the same, no? I digress.
The Champions League is VERY VERY back this week. It was a fun EPL weekend. The expected Liverpool destruction of Chelsea was always going to happen. A confident Mo Salah makes this a SCARY Liverpool team. The absolute BLINDER he hit yesterday will do nothing to quell that confidence. Just look at the state of this…
We’ll follow the usual UCL preview format. We’ll look at the spread, game previews and then talk a little DFS before heading towards any bets that I like this week.
Let’s head to the dessert.
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- FCB -265 3 (-135o/+110u)
- MU +700
- TIE +425
- JUV -150 2.5 (-125o/+105u)
- AJA +450
- TIE +275
- POR +270 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)
- LIV +105
- TIE +240
- MCI -335 3 (-140o/+115u)
- TOT +850
- TIE +450
Previous result: United 0 – Barcelona 1 (AG)
Barca came in to Old Trafford and bossed the first 40 minutes in the first half. An own goal from Luke Shaw is the difference at the moment. When United stopped giving Barco so much respect, the game became much more even and entertaining. In saying that, United didn’t register a single shot on goal all game. That does not bode well for the second leg heading to the Bernabeu.
Should the game end 1-0 United, this game would head to extra time as the aggregate score would be 1-1 with each team having 1 away goal. Any other score line will see a winner advance to the next round.
Barcelona are the better team. Barcelona have the better attackers. Barcelona have the better midfielder. United have a horseshoe up their ass and a manager who believes.
I fully expect this to be a competitive game but one that should see Barcelona move on to the next round. I will not be betting on this game as I do not have a feel for the final result because the performance from United is so unpredictable. Barca through to the next round.
Previous result: Ajax 1 – Juve 1 (AG)
What a game this was last Wednesday. The game ended 1-1 but had so much action start to finish. For starters, Ajax are not fucking around. They bossed the game from start to finish. Juventus scored with the last kick (head) of the ball in the first half. In my head I thought that could have been the death blow for Ajax. Nah, man. Just after half time Neres capitalized on a mistake to score in the 46th minute and tie the game. Ajax had several good chances throughout but the tie felt like a just scoreline.
Juventus do have the crucial away goal. Should the game end 0-0 Juventus would go through. Should the 90 minutes end 1-1 the teams will head to extra time. Any other scoreline will see one of these teams go through to the next round.
I don’t expect Ajax to have the ball for 60% of the game as they did in Holland but they will certainly not sit back and wait. They outshot Juve 19 to 7. I still like both teams to score in this match. It’s hard for me to pick a winner at the moment but Ronaldo, as he always is, might be the difference maker. Juve through.
Previous result: Liverpool 2 – Porto 0
Not many surprises in this game other than who scored the goals. We knew Liverpool would be sharp in attack, especially at home. We knew Porto would sit and try to hold on for dear life. I didn’t expect the game to be as lopsided as it was. 64% possession with 15 shots by Liverpool is pretty dominant. Porto popped off only 8 shots but actually matched Liverpool with 3 shots on goal a piece. Salah hit an absolute screamer yesterday that will have the Portugese shaking in their boots.
Liverpool has been more pragmatic on the road this year than in year’s past but I certainly don’t expect the possession numbers to flip on their axis. A more 50/50 split or maybe even a slight edge to Liverpool should see them dictate this game from minute 1. Porto will need to press but won’t go balls to the wall knowing a Liverpool away goal is game over for them.
This feels like an under game but I see Liverpool scoring, even if it’s left late as Porto push for goals as the game wears on. Regardless, i can’t see Porto overturning the result so we should see Liverpool through.
Previous result: Tottenham 1 – MCI 0
WTF was that game plan from City last time out. It was almost as if Pep spotted City a leg in this 2 leg tie. OK don’t start KDB or Sane but to wait until the 89’ to bring them on was at best curious and at worst, wreckless. Take nothing away from Tottenham. It was a brilliant result and they did what they had to do in the match. City had nearly 60% of the ball but Tottenham held the edge with 13 shots to 10. Let us not forget how different this game could have been had Aguero not missed the penalty 13 minutes in.
Harry Kane is a big miss but TOT was able to rest several key players this weekend in preparation for the return leg at the Etihad. City had a near first team squad on Sunday for their battle with Palace, which they won 3-1.
We know City have the firepower to get it done. They’ll be at home. A 1-0 City win will see this game head to extra time. Any other scoreline will see one team go through. City are massive favorites for a reason. Spurs are no pushover but I expect goals from this game….perhaps from both teams. Should Tottenham score, City would need at least 3 goals to go through to the next round.
Messi – BAR – $9.5k
Look I don’t care that he scored 3 points last time out. I don’t care that Barca carry a lead and don’t have to score to advance. I don’t care about any of that because Messi is under $10 and that my friends is an auto-play. If we loved him at $10.1k at Old Trafford we have to love him at $9.5k at home.
Aguero – MCI – $8.1k
City need to score. If Spurs score they need 3. Give me the man most likely to bag one for the massive home favorites. Price is just fine too.
Salah – LIV – $7.9k
This feels a little bit like a trap because this is on the road and LIV are a bit more conservative in this type of situation than in year’s past but when they sit back and pounce who is the most likely to benefit from that scenario? Mo Salah.
Ronaldo – JUV – $9.2k
I’m such a Ronaldo stan that I don’t even try to hide it anymore. Yes he destroys the UCL. Yes he’s cheaper than Messi. Yes he’s at home. Believe me, I get all the reasons you want to play him. I do too. So just play him!
Marega – POR – $7.3k
I would love him at $6.3k but he’s the most likely at home in a must win game. He fired 5 shots with 3 on target last game. He’s a talent for sure. You want to get a little funky? Go here!
Dembele – FCB – $7k
He’s young enough to not even understand how important this game is. I’ll take mindset with his skillset at this price 9/10 times. A good to great play should he start.
Heung-Min – TOT – $6.9k
Sonny turns into Super Sonny when Kane is out of the lineup, which is the situation facing Tot in this game. Now at this price he needs a goal to really pay off the opportunity cost of not playing the guys above. I don’t think he gets one but he’s more than capable.
Lukaku – MU – $6.8k
I don’t think I’m going to be playing any United attackers but if I were to take a stab, I’d take him over Martial and Rashford for price and ownership reasons. He did the double against PSG to take United through to this point. Why not make it twice as nice and do it again? GPP multi-lineup only.
Ziyech – AJA – $8.7k
DK going with the soft FD pricing is going to make this slate very interesting. For those who didn’t watch, the entire Ajax attacked flowed through this man. He put up 13 points without a goal or assist. 7 shots. 5 crosses. The sad part is that he blew some great opportunities. #1 midfielder on the slate.
De Bruyne – MCI – $7.5k
I love him in this matchup. I loved him the last time these 2 faced each other a week ago but Pep was saving him for some reason. He played this weekend but still should be fresh for the game. At home when they’ll have a ton of possession. KDB can do some damage.
Corona – POR – $6.5k
Again, this feels a touch expensive for a Porto player but I don’t hate this spot for Joey C. (No one calls him that) Even though he got 90 minutes last week against Liverpool, he has been subbed off in nearly every game prior. If you guarantee me 90 minutes I might be all in Joe Corona. At the moment I’ll just have sprinkles.
Bentancur – JUV – $3.5k
He provided great value on the road last time out. Assuming he starts I expect a similar performance at home.
Telles – POR – $4.6k
I’m not all in on Porto but it might look that way based on the article. I want 1 or 2 pieces here. Telles is my #1 player from Porto and a near lock for my cash roster.
Cancelo – JUV – $5.4k
Absolute stud who picked up an assist last time out to Ronaldo. If you look at his games where he gets 90 minutes it’s nearly impossible for him to get less than 1.5x. At home is a great spot for him to go 2x in this spot.
Veltman – AJA – $3.9k
He was a surprise starter last week and should he get the nod again, I’m fine going here for the salary savings. I wouldn’t expect another 10 pt outing but 3-6 is reasonable and not the worst result.
Militao – POR – $3.1k
We’ll see where he plays but he may be fine even at CB. He’s just so cheap. I don’t love the clean sheet odds in this one.
Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $5.7k
Not the best spot for TAA in my opinion. He was basically free to attack in the home leg but will have much more defending to do here. He should still get forward some and have a piece of set pieces. He’s not the worst play but I’m not finding I have the salary for him in my builds at the moment.
Ter Stegen – BAR – $5.7k
For many reasons I like him the most in this slate. His price is up there but United are struggling to create and finish chances at the moment.
Casillas – POR – $4.4k
His experience will be huge in this matchup. At home in a must win game. POR will have to push forward and will concede some shots to Liverpool. He could be in store for a monster game should it all come together.
De Gea – $3.8k
This is just so stinkin cheap. I honestly don’t see a scenario that ends with him in the negative points range. Yes, he’s fine to pair with Messi. The fact that I’m not really on anyone but Messi from Barca is enough of a reason for me to really consider DDG on my main lu.
- Posted after team news. Stay tuned…H