Your boy Duke has your back for Thursday’s EPL DFS slates!!
So. Much. Soccer.
Two different slates here. We have the 2 game 1pm slate and the SD slate for the big CHE/MCI game. We’ll break them down separately.
To the desert..
-Burnley +215 2.2.5 (-105o/-115u)
-Southampton +160 2.5,3 (-105o/-115u)
-Chelsea +310 2.5,3 (-125o/+105u)
Man City -130
This game cracks me up. Is Watford the favorite? WOW! Why is that? Let’s dive in.
Burnley was absolutely merked by Man City. You watch that game and ask how in the hell anyone is 20 points ahead of that City team. So, forget that result. Burnley always struggles against City. Burnley really do well against the bottom half of the table. Particularly at home, they have 6 wins, 1 loss and 0 draws against teams lower than them in the table. The big worry here is that Barnes is out and Wood is questionable. Vyrdra ain’t great. It changes the way Burnley play. I’m guessing that is a big part of the reason for this line.
For Watford, Success, Deulofeu and Janmaat are going to be out again here so we will likely see a similar team to their game against Leicester. The salvaged the draw with a stoppage time goal but this was mostly a Leicester domination. Again, that was a bit expected but Watford showed great fight. They managed 8 shots and put 4 on target. No goals from the front player with Craig Dawson scoring on a knock down.
3 of the last 4 matchups between the 2 here have finished with 3 or more goals.
If confidence matters, this game will be interesting. Southampton should be flying high after firing 3 past Norwich whereas Arsenal have lost their 2 games since the return. This is Arsenal’s third game in 7 days. Believe it or not, I completely agree with this line.
I mentioned previously, Southampton are good on their day. They are inconsistent. They are streaky. They can’t necessarily be trusted but they have quality and Ings got his goal.
Arsenal are absolutely in shambles defensively. To top it off, Bern Leno is out for the rest of this year. Martinez is serviceable but a big drop off from Leno. Lacazette didn’t look great. Aubameyang is wasted at left mid. Ozil isn’t playing. There are far more negatives than positives at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rotation with the side.
This could be a sneaky good DFS game.
- Sarr – WAT – $8.5k
I know Pepe has the set piece shares so I prefer him for cash but Sarr is my #1 GPP forward on the slate. He has enough balance of floor an upside to break the slate and will be lower owned.
- McNeil – BUR – $7.8k
Looked really sharp against City but had 0 help around him. He will be relied upon heavily to grab anything from the game.
- Aubameyang – ARS – $10k
He’s totally wasted at left mid but that’s most likely where he’ll line up again. He did manage 7 shots the last time out and if he can repeat that you like him to find the back of the net.
- Saka – ARS – $5.9k
I expected more from him against Brighton. He still isn’t filling the stat sheet but the assist helped him to nearly 3x last match. I expect this to be an open game and honestly would prefer him to play left back even though we won’t have the opportunity for CS points.
- Lacazette – ARS – $6.6k
WOW this price. I honestly don’t disagree with it and Arsenal have been bad but this is too cheap for a player of his class.
- Deeney – WAT – $7k
GPP special here. On pens for the biggest favorite. I hate hate hate rostering Deeney. He’s all or nothing but I do like Watford to grab something here.
- Ceballos – ARS – $5.5k
Cash only type of play. Some set piece equity and seems to have the trust of the manager.
- Hughes – WAT – $4.4k
Set pieces under $5k? Yes please. Does get forward and might even have more upside than Ceballos.
- Doucoure – WAT – $5.3k
Random goal scorer on a short slate.
- Westwood – BUR – $6.2k
3rd of the midfield set piece takers mostly due to price. He’s somewhat limited from open play as well compared to the other 2. All 3 in cash is viable.
- Hendrick – BUR – $3.9k
Want to pay up for F/F/UTIL? Hendrick is an option with slight upside that will allow you to get there.
- Betrand – SOU – $5.6k
Is he the safest play on the board? I’m not 100% sure of his ownership in cash but it will be high. He’s getting home in a couple different ways which can either be encouraging or worrying. I expect his crossing numbers to improve from teh Norwich match.
- Taylor – BUR – $4.6k
Defendse is gross on this slate so I’ll take points where I can. He’s good for 1x minimum.
- Masina – WAT – $5.1k
Crazy expensive for his ability but he has one of the higher floors on the slate for this position.
- Valery – SOU – $3.6k
Told you D was bad.
- Lowton/Bardsley – BUR – $3.9k/$4.1k
Likely won’t have the target of Wood in there but still soem value for the money for either.
- Kabasele – WAT – $2.8k
Price plus upside type of play. Almost no floor but has more shots than anyone under $3k.
*Really depends on your build*
Everyone’s eyes will come to this game. It’s going to be fun. I think it’s going to be a close game. Based on the first 11 Lampard put out against Villa, he’s either completely incompetant or had Thursday on his mind. Pulisic should be fresh. Tammy Abraham should be fresh. Reece James should be fresh. They have dynamism in this team.
City have looked insane. 3-0 win v Arsenal was telling. The 5-0 thrashing could have been 10. It was so lopsided that it was laughable. Unfortunately Aguero will be out for a while with a knee injury but Jesus is very very good. Sane is very good. Sterling is very good. Bernardo is very good. KDB is insane. D Silva scored in the last game. They have so much freaking talent it’s ridiculous. That makes team news very important but I do think both teams will score in this game.
3/3 or 4/2 build will be the most popular. 5/1 will be contrarian. This game should be more even than most SD slates of late.
- KDB – Cash + GPP
- Sterling – Cash + GPP
- Willian – Cash
- Pulisic – Cash + GPP
- Abraham – GPP
- Mahrez – Cash + GPP
- B Silva – Cash + GPP
- James – Cash + GPP
- Azpilicueta – Cash + GPP
- Ederson – GPP
- Alonso – GPP
- Kante – GPP
- Rodri – GPP