Your boy Duke has your back for the Monday Showdown EPL DFS slate and the Tuesday two-gamer as well!!
UPDATES AT THE BOTTOM – SCROLL DOWN!!
Alright team, another split article here. DraftKings has launched another bit $100k tournament for the showdown slate with City and Burnley. I’ll break that down in depth. On Tuesday there is a 2 game slate as well. That pricing won’t be out at the time of print so I’ll come back in and edit this article with the recommendations for the 2 gamer.
We’ve seen situations where substitutes have been the difference for showdown slates. We’ve also seen more normal situations where slate breakers like Matt Ritchie started and played the majority of the minutes. Essentially, a substitute scoring a goal is where they can have an impact. We’ve seen role players typically pick up 5-10 points on winning rosters. In single entry and smaller fields there is absolutely no reason to get cute.
With that, let’s head to the desert…
-Man City -850 3.5 (-105o/-115u)
I mean, you see the line right? Historically this fixture is all Man City. Sure, Burnley have been more competitive at home but we all know why that is the case. That home crowd and their style of play plus that field and field size help their cause. At the Etihad?
- 3-0 win in October 2017 in the Prem.
- 4-1 win in January 2018 in the FA Cup.
- 5-0 win in October 2018 in the Prem.
- 5-0 win in January 2019 in the FA Cup.
The ‘Empty-had’ will literally be empty on Monday but the result should not change. We saw City pick apart a lost Arsenal team last week and while Burnley might hold the line for 20 or even 40 minutes, the relentless pressure will eventually break the dam and the goals will flow.
Obviously team news is always a giant question mark with this team but we need to target the CF. Whether that’s Aguero or Jesus doesn’t matter. City will beat Burnley down the end line for simple cut backs to the forward for a header or tap in goal. It’s like clock work.
What’s the route to victory for Burnley? Like 24 dead iPhone batteries and players missing the game. City will have over 70% possession of the ball and create 10-15 times the chances that Burnely potentially will.
The strategy here is as much City as possible.
- For the reasons mentioned above, I really like the forward for City in this game. Slight price break from KDB and while still expensive, doesn’t absolutely cripple your build. Guessing Aguero gets the start here.
- De Bruyne
- This falls in the ‘dont’ get cute’ category. He’s a bonafide World Class player. He took his goal well against Arsenal and could certainly find the net here as well. I expect him to playmake more but he does have shots in the locker. More cash must play than GPP.
- Does Pep reward the youngster for his goal with a start? Squad rotation plus odds to win would make it seem more likely than I originally thought. He’s shown his ability to find the spots to score. I’m not banking for a goal in my projections but should he start he’s in contention for the CPT spot.
- We haven’t seen him back yet but the guy is a livewire. He’s electric in the final third and exactly wha the DFS Dr’s have recommended.
- If you have a roster without KDB and he’s starting please tag me on twitter @dukedfs — I’m not saying you won’t cash.
- Need that forward for the tap ins.
- We could see some rotation with the quick turnaround and Cancelo is ready to roll. He’s rumored to be heading out on a transfer so you wonder where his head is but thre is no doubt he loves to bomb forward and build up fantasy points.
- Whoever starts, just plug and play.
- Pretty darn expensive for such a young player but he has the good.
- Win and CS odds are looking pretty damn good.
- B Silva
- Does he come in around the midfield or as one of the 3 main attackers? That’s the difference between cash and GPP type of plays.
- Cheap City Exposure
- Whether it’s Otamendi, Fernandinho, Laporte or Rodrigo, just stuff them in your roster and pray one of them heads down the other. I prefer Otamendi to all of these but even though Garcia is out, Ota might not start.
- Guy is really good but surrounded by a bunch of 3-legged dogs.
- Burnley guy
- Westwood will take some set pieces. Rodriguez is crafty. Hendrick can pop the odd shot.
UPDATE: DK DECIDED TO MAKE AN INTER LEAGUE, 5 GAME SLATE. UNFORTUNATELY I SIMPLY DON’T HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BREAK THAT DOWN FOR YOU. HOWEVER, THEY HAVE MASSIVE SHOWDOWN SLATES FOR EACH OF THE 2 GAMES IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE. I’LL BE BREAKDOWN THOSE DOWN BELOW!
-Leicester City -145 2.5 (-105o/-115u)
-Tottenham -150 2.5,3 (-115o/-105u)
West Ham +395
Leicester pretty well dominated Watford everywhere but the scoresheet. The draw hurts their chances for a top 4 finish with Chelsea picking up the win yesterday. Expect a top performance from them in ths one. Their home/away splits are relatively the same. I have the line exactly where Vegas does as well.
That was a huge win by Brighton over Arsenal and might have sealed their Premier League status for next season. The catalyst for the W was the set piece goal from Dunk. There were large parts of the game when they were out of the contest but the big injury to Leno was the start of Arsenal’s downfall. Brighton conceded about half a goal more on the road.
- Vardy – Had a goal and an assist last time these teams met. He was active last game but didn’t get many chances. I expect them to be on the front foot in a lower scoring game so goals are at a premium.
- Maddison – Realistically, this is our CPT in cash. Just pay the money. The man’s floor is higher than half the ceilings in this game. 9 crosses and 5 shots in a 1-1 game with Watford.
- Chilwell – The goal was fantastic but look at everything else…3 shots assisted, 5 crosses, 2 tackles won and an interception. He can fill the stat sheet.
- Gross – He took basically all set pieces through his 71 minutes last time out. That is huge information considering Mooy and Trossard were on the field as well. This is a contrarian play as he’s not the cheapest pivot by any means.
- Maddison – listed above
- Vardy – listed above
- Chilwell – listed above
- Gross – listed above
- Barnes – big upside play. GPP only most likely due to price and lack of floor but an electric talent in the final third on the favorite.
- Justin – likely to get the nod again with Pereira out and showed well last game. The defensive statistics seem nearly impossible to replicate or he’d be higher on the list.
- Maupay – goal scorers find a way. He dealt with adversity last game to grab the winner late and didn’t back down.
- Albrighton – the man loves a cross.
- Perez – didn’t play last time out but if he starts he’ll shoot up the list. He adds real quality to the attack.
Jose ball really is the worst. If you watched the Man United match you’ll know that defending for 90 minutes and hoping to score on 1 or 2 mistakes is just about the worst thing in the world to watch. Now imagine playing in that system. Rumors of Harry Kane demanding a transfer are popping their head up again. Mathematically they have a chance at top 4 but realistically that hope is gone. It will be interesting to see how the players respond.
West Ham are ass. David Moyes is half the manager Pelligrini is and was brought in to save the season. Maybe it’s the players! They are in real trouble in the table sitting outside the relegation zone on goal difference alone. Spurs are rightly big favorites here and I have them winning.
- Lo Celso – Came off the bench to make an impact and should get the start here. Call it safe, if you’d like. It is but his price plus floor plus potential upside in this matchup makes it very enticing.
- Kane – Ignore last game. That was a horrible set up by Mourinho and he’s been criticized for it heavily. He has absolutely no reason to play defensive soccer here. Kane scores.
- Bergwijn – I love Son but his price is outrageous so give me the other player in the trident for Spurs. He’s explosive and took his goal with real power and commitment.
- Bowen – His price has him in no man’s land but he was the most effective player for a poor West Ham side last time out and certainly has some ability in the final third.
- Yarmolenko – Just SO cheap. Came off the bench last match but has a goal in him. Contrarian upside play.
- Lo Celso