Your boy Duke has your back for the Tuesday DFS slate in the Bundesliga!!
Content Schedule this week:
M – This article. Hello!
T – Bundesliga Article + EPL Article + Podcast with Brian Healy detailing WED Showdown slate
W – win $50k
Th – Bundesliga Article + EPL Article
F – EPL Cheat Sheets — ONLY EPL
Sa – Sunday Funday EPL article
Su – NA
Boys, I’m so flipping busy with content and some exciting things behind the scenes that these articles will be a work in progress. I certainly don’t want to sacrifice any piece of these articles but they simply CAN’T be as long with so much content coming out every single day. Expect the intros to be short. The game previews to be efficient and the recommendations to be the focus with the WHY included obviously.
ENJOY THE NEW NORMAL!!
To the desert…
-Monchengladbach +110 3 (EVENo/-120u)
-Werder Breme n +1200 3.5 (-120o/EVENu)
Bayern Munich -650
-Freiburg +160 2.5,3 (-115o/-105u)
Hertha Berlin +150
-Union Berlin -155 2.5,3 (-115o/-105u)
#1, this is a showdown slate, separate fron the main starting at 2:30.
Huge question marks for Gladbach – what happens with Thuram? He had to be subbed off very early this past weekend with an ankle injury. It looked like a stamp with maybe a slight twist. I would expect him to miss this one. Plea looks set to miss after picking up an abductor injury in training. Who scores goals? Stindl has actually looked ok in the last few games. Herrmann is capable but unlikely. I would actually flip the odds here with Wolfsburg being more likely to grab the win.
Weghorst has found his form. 3 goals in his last 2 games will have the giant ready to eat. I love seeing his 13 shots in his last 3 maybe even more. We want to make sure forwards are getting opportunities as much as if they are finishing them. We know he has the ability. The way he plays allows for him to continue to start even with a short turnaround.
See you in the chat but here’s who I’m targeting early for the SD slate:
This is such an interesting match. I fully expect Bayern to win but by how many? Bremen have found something lately. They only lost to Wolfsburg 1-0 and just smashed Paderborn 5-1. They also have wins over Freiburg and Schalke since the return. This is a team that has just 1 win at home but 6 away! Bayern beat them 6-1 last time out but both games last season were competitive games but Bayern victories.
Is this one of those games that Bremen punt to find points elsewhere? THEY CAN’T! There are only 3 games left in the season and they sit in the relegation zone. They will do everything they can to grab a point so I expect the first half to stay close with the second half seeing Bayern blow it open as Bremen chase.
Man, screw Freiburg. They are Bournemouth. Seriously. They are middle of the table with wins over Leipzig, Gladbach, Wolfsburg and a draw v Dortmund. They also lost to Dusseldorf, Werder Bremen and Paderborn. Make sense of that..
Hertha are in a funk as well at the moment. They were up 1-0 v Frankfurt but were being outplayed if we are being honest. The red card to Boyata spelled the beginning of the end. Silva came off the bench to spark the 4-1 comeback and a loss for Hertha. The good news? It was good to see Cunha get some minutes. I expect him to start.
Massive game here. Paderborn are all but relegated and should they draw or lose this match, they will officially be relegated. Based on the 5-1 drumming they took at the hands of shitty Werder Bremen you can’t love their chances here. They haven’t won a game since January 25th. On the positive side, they’ve scored in 3 straight. Yay!
Union Berlin looked set to stay up with 35 points and 7 points clear of the playoff spot. That is HUGE for this little club that could. They drew the reverse fixture 1-1 and I expect a similar result. They aren’t free and clear so they certainly won’t punt off this game. Who the heck scores? They’ve been spreading around the goals. We’ll try to figure that out below.
- Lewandowski – BAY – $11.2k
Does he score 1 or 2. No goals is a disaster. He’s -450 to score a goal. THAT IS INSANE haha. However, that is the form this man is in. Honestly, we might get here in cash…
- Proger – SCP – $7.1k
Does he start? This is decent value if he does. Paderborn need a spark and his 3 crosses in 26 minutes was the loan (minor) bright spot from their ass kicking they took by Werder.
- Davies – BAY – $7.9k
GPP only but should be fresh after only coming off the bench last game. Has played further forward but expect him back at LB here. He doesn’t accumulate enough peripheral stats for me to grab too many shares but as part of a BAY stack I get it.
- Grifo – SCF – $8.7k
42 shots in 24 appearances and 3 assists with a goal in his last 4. Grifo has been a staple in our cash lineups but thinking about this critically, the majority of his value is tied to his goal/assist upside. His form is fantastic but let’s not go all in here.
- Andersson – FCU – $8k
WOW this price is bonkers. He’s murdered whoever rostered him in the last 2 slates and was yanked off early last weekend but has at least a shot in his last 4. I do like UB in this match and want a piece of their attack somewhere. Only +105 to score a goal.
- Waldschmidt – SCF – $5k
This is assuming Holer can’t play and Waldy gets the start obviously. His shots/90 minutes are what draws me in here. He’s not the best player but is a forward who finds spots in defenses that have them. I don’t love Peterson but he’s in play for just $600 more as well if you do.
- Cunha – BSC – $9k
I don’t love Hertha in this spot but I do think Cunha will be contrarian with some upside. Freiburg have been fairly stout defensively so I’m likely going to fade here.
- Muller – BAY – $10.5k
How do you not play Thomas Muller? He has at least 1 goal or assist in 5 of his last 7 games. The implied odds have Bayern scoring multiple goals here and I’m granting Muller another goal OR assist here. That will justify the expensive price. GPP for sure. Cash will depend on other team news.
- Kimmich – BAY – $7.8k
Love this spot for Joshy boy. #1 – he let us down last game. I’m fine going back to the well in a ++ matchup when people are upset with him. He still put in his 6 crosses but lacked the goal or assist that has been boosting his stats. This is on the higher end of his pricing but I’m fine spending here.
- Trimmel – FCU – $9k
Are we doing this? Are we paying $9k for Trimmel? One thing to note is if Felix Kroos starts. He came off the bench and was involved in set pieces. Trimmel does have some open play value but the majority of his floor is tied directly to these opportunities. My question is would rather play Trimmel at $9k or Kimmich at $7.8k? That seems like an easy choice to me.
- Evans – SCP – $4.4k
Came out of nowhere to spark our interest at near min-price last weekend and paid it off with a 3x performance. He also took some set pieces which was very interesting. Team news will be huge but at his price, he’s in play in all contests.
- Holtmann – SCP – $3.5k
His shots don’t hit the target very often but I love the chances he’s taking. “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” – Wayne Gretzky — Michael Scott
- Bittencourt – SVW – $5.2k
I don’t love playing players against Bayern but they haven’t been invincible and Bitt has been in great form. He’s come off the bench in their 2 losses and was an unused sub in their big win. What does that mean for his playing time? He’s been brilliant when on the field. Obviously we need a start to justify playing him but I like this spot as we saw the pace of Alario cause the Bayern backline some problems.
- Goretzka – BAY – $7.5
Strictly a GPP play. YES he grabbed another goal but he was mostly sitting deeper and happened to be in the right place at the right time very late in the game to grab his winner and 90% of his fantasy points. $7.5k is too much to invest for that kind of return.
- Malli – FCU – $4.2k
Isn’t going to kill you but the upside is limited. Cash only type of player if he fits as our value.
- Kroos – FCU – $3.9k
Cheap set piece equity if he starts.
- Ritter – SCP – $3.8k
Super cheap set piece equity with some open play value. Took 3 corners last game.
- Selassie – SVW – $3.9k
Almost plug and play at this point. He’s hit value in 2 straight and didn’t kill anyone the previous 2. At under $4k the risk is minimal.
- Pavard – BAY – $5.3k
The all action fullback. Bayern don’t whip in a ton of crosses but he’s extremely dangerous on set pieces either connecting with the initial ball in or finding the space in the box for the ball to fall to his feet. I don’t know if I’ll get here in cash but he’s in play. GPP for sure.
- Collins – SCP – $4.2k
Priced correctly but in play.
- Gunter – SCF – $6.2k
We were rightfully off Gunter v Wolfsburg and he burned a bunch of people with only 4.4 pts at $6.3k. Much better matchup here and we can expect more like 10-15 points. At that range he’s in play in most contests but we would need to find value elsewhere.
- Reichel – FCU – $3k
You might be thinking, a fullback at $3k let’s go all in. SLOW DOWN. He’s an option but certainly not the option. His 2 crosses were negated by his 3 fouls committed. Easier matchup in this game.
- Plattenhardt – BSC – $6k
Does Darida play? We have enough sample size to confirm that Platt’s value is cut in half if so. If not, we can consider him at this price. I’m still concerned about his open play value as well. 1 cross in 90 minutes is troubling but they were down to 10 men for half the game which killed his value.
- Schwolow – $4.6k
- Neuer – $5.9k
- Pavlenka – $3.6k