Your boy Duke has your back for Friday’s DFS slate in the Bundesliga.
The leagues are back. My time is limited. If you are coming here for me to hold your hand, you are in the wrong place…that’s the chat room on Saturday morning. THIS…this is the base of everything we do. This is the narrowed player pool. This is the German Bundesliga.
La Liga is back. I don’t see DK contests. EPL will be back next week. As of now, there are no EPL contests but I suspect we’ll see a PRETTY large GPP with at least $25k up top. Excited for that but let’s get to this weekend’s slate.
To the desert….
- Koln EVEN | 2.5,3 (EVENo/-120u)
- Union Berlin +275
- DRAW +245
- Dusseldorf +650 | 3,3.5 (EVENo/-120u)
- Borussia Dortmund -280
- DRAW +400
- Hertha Berlin EVEN | 3 (+105o/-125u)
- Eintract Frankfurt +240
- DRAW +270
- Paderborn +215 | 2.5,3 (-110o/-110u)
- Werder Bremen +110
- DRAW +275
- Wolfsburg -145 | 2.5,3 (-105o/-115u)
- Freiburg +365
- DRAW +280
BUNDESLIGA DFS GAME THOUGHTS
Both teams have scored in 7 straight Koln games. They’ve looked awful defensively. Uth is running out of steam but Anthony Modeste cannot stop scoring off the bench. They are looking for their first win since March.
Union Berlin hasn’t won since February. They haven’t scored 2 or more goals since March 1st. They did beat Koln 2-0 the first time around. When you see Koln as a favorite you start asking questions about the opponent.
Ultimately this is a game with both teams scoring. The winner? Probably Koln but this could be 1-1 or even 2-2. It’s not the worst game to attack from a DFS perspective but ownership will trend elsewhere.
This line is…..curious. Like what the hell is going on? Dortmund won the reverse fixture 5-0. They murder the bottom of the table. Dusseldorf are in 16th place, third from bottom. Against teams 12th and lower Dortmund have won 3-1, 5-3, 4-0, 2-0 and 6-0. They lost 1-3 to UB but other than that they’ve been flawless and scoring goals in bunches. The big question mark is the big man up front. Haaland is still questionable. I still expect them to win and think 280 isn’t enough here.
To Dusseldorf’s credit they’ve been in good form, relatively speaking. A win over Schalke and draw with Hoffenheim shows they can compete but Dortmund are another animal.
Hertha Berlin are a completely different team without Cunha. He still carries the questionable tag as he recovers from a concussion. We know those can be tricky so I’m going to move forward with the breakdown as if he ISN’T playing. Now if he doesn’t play that doesn’t mean they are terrible but it certainly limits their ceiling. They were competitive against Leipzig and Dortmund while beating the pants off of UB, Hoffenheim and Augsburg. Essentially they are doing what they are supposed to do.
Frankfurt goes as Silva goes. Do you think he scores? If so, go nuts. If he does, Frankfurt will compete in this game. What we do know is that they are going to concede. I was ready to write Frankfurt off and then they went and beat Wolfsburg 2-1 and it threw me for a loop. In truth, they are a solid team that can catch lightning in a bottle.
I have Hertha winning here regardless of whether Cunha starts or not.
Check this out….Paderborn have played 5 games since we returned from Covid and scored 3 goals. Werder Bremen have played 6 games and scored 3 goals. Are we in for a beauty here?
Paderborn are bottom of the table for a reason. They struggle to score and attempt to keep the clean sheet from the opponent which they’ve only done once in 15 home games. They did win the reverse fixture 1-0.
Who scores for either of these teams? Josh Sargeant hasn’t scored in a while. Bittencourt has scored 2. Team news will be interesting but I’m not excited to play anyone here.
Awesome to see Weghorst find the scoresheet but Wolfsburg continue to use him incorrectly. They are 6th in crosses but should be first with a 6’6” tower at forward. They are mid-table in goals scored but have only conceded 36 in 30 games.
Freiburg’s form has been inconsistent. What you get game to game is a crapshoot. They held on for dear life against Frankfurt and grabbed a point. They were competitive but were beaten by Leverkusen 1-0. They then beat Monchengladbach 1-0. Let’s dig a tad deeper into the stats here:
V Frankfurt — outshot 34 to 10 and had 38% possession.
V Leverkusen — Held Leverkusen to just 7 shots but only had 31% possession.
V Gladbach — Had 35% possession, did manage 15 shots BUT was outshot 18 to 15.
TOUGH game to break down here. We think Freiburg will have little possession and try to counter attack. Wolfsburg prefer to defend and will have more of the ball. Geez.
Haaland – BVB – $11k
Price and situation makes me kind of hate every single forward this week. He’s by far the most likely to score 2 goals. At this price, he has to have 1. He does not pick up peripherals but his upside as a massive favorite is unquestioned.
Grifo – SCF – $7.7k
Certainly in cash consideration. They will likely exceed their 35% possession share they usually have. Freiburg are more likely to score from a set piece than open play. Forward is rough for cash.
Modeste – KOE – $5.9k
What does the big man have to do to get a start? 3 goals in his last 4 games. 2 off the bench and 1 in a start against Leipzig.
Sancho – BVB – $12.5k
This is basically all or nothing, right? I think it’s actually rare that he has 0 assists in his last 3 games. That is in part due to the fact that Haaland has been out. Should Haaland start, I’d be inclined to play them both together and just punt everywhere and pray everyone else sucks. I just don’t think we can justify this in cash.
Silva – SGE – $6.1k
Cheap goal scorer in a decent matchup. As we saw in the last game, without the goal he doesn’t provide fantasy value.
Weghorst – WOB – $7.4k
This feels a touch expensive for a goal dependent forward but they are the second biggest favorite on the slate. I do like what Freiburg are doing defensively but he presents so many problems for a defense. Not sure I can get here in cash.
Proger – SCP – $6.9k
Under $7k? Check. Set piece equity? Shared likely but check! Finishes the full 90? Nah fam. I don’t love this option but I know we’ll be talking about it Saturday morning for our cash builds.
Uth – KOE – $10.5k
Sneaky pivot off Haaland and Sancho in GPP. He looked awful last week and as I mentioned in my last article, I’m worried about the amount of time on his legs. In saying that, he has set piece equity, takes penalties and shoots quite a bit. Soooo that’s the contrarian play.
Kostic – SGE – $9k
What? Just play him. I thought he’d be $11.5k. Cash lock. Likely in most GPP lineups as well.
Trimmel – FCU – $7.6k
The captain sent in 18 crosses last game. WOW. 12, 12, 7 and 18. This isn’t a fluke. Koln loves to concede goals so figuring out who to pair him with is the key. Let’s wait for team news and figure out our correlated play.
Arnold – WOB – $8.7k
I was fully prepared to fade Kostic and play Arnold but I thought Arnodl would be $7.7k. The pricing this week doesn’t just give you a build. People will see the 34 and 16 in his log and shove him in but I greatly prefer Kostic. Good play. Not a great play at $8.7k
Antwi-Adjei – SCP – $5.7k
If no Proger then we are definitely grabbing shares in cash and maybe some GPP. If Proger is in then we’ll have a decision to make. He still took some sets in the last game with Proger but that is the majority of his value so we need to justify the price.
Lukebakio – BSC – $5.8k
Strictly a GPP play as his minutes have tailed off of late but we know about his explosive ability in the final third. An enticing piece of Hertha.
Guerreiro – BVB – $7.2k
Doesn’t have enough set piece equity for cash. Perhaps a touch too expensive for GPP. I might even just prefer the higher priced Hakimi but we are running out of salary very fast. BVB is not a fade but the pricing is making it tough. For cash – he isn’t going to kill you. He had a 5.3 game in his last 4 which would be a disaster but I expect BVB to have quite a day.
Gacinovic – SGE – $3.3k
LOOK, the guy stinks out loud but he has been getting in good positions but hasn’t finished. 2, 1, 2 and 2 shots in his last 4 at under $3.5k? YES I’ll take chances — probably with Silva and Trapp — in GPP.
Malli – FCU – $3.6k
Free square last week and likely the same if he starts.
De Guzman – SGE – $3.9k
Still haven’t started but this might be the start we are craving with some team news. Cheap cheap cheap.
DEFENDERS — Likely 3 D in cash..
Plattenhardt – BSC – $6.1k
If he starts, plug him in. If he doesn’t, pivot down to Mittelstadt but he’s not as plug and play as Platty.
Gunter – SCF – $6.3k
More open play value that I give him credit for. He has set piece shares. I have the floor here as 1.5x.
Mbabu – WOB – $5.5k
He’s shown me enough of a sample size to justify this price. 2x very plausible. 3x certainly in play as a huge favorite.
Augustinsson – SVVW – $5.2k
Welcome back! We saw what he’s capable of in a tough matchup last game. 9 crosses with 2 shots and 4 shots assisted. I’ll take 3x.
Brooks – WOB – $3.1k
Arnold to Brooks for all the money in GPP. Wolfsburg keeps a clean sheet and he scores? BANG!
Look for more value in Cheat Sheets
Burki – BVB – $5.8k
Who’s most likely to win on this slate? Dortmund. I don’t love playing $6k for a GK but if the salary is there, I’ll take safety over upside. CS/W upside is the biggest on the slate.
Jarstein – BSC – $5.2k
If they win he’ll pay this off. If they draw or lose it’ll be too expensive. I like them to win.
Schwolow – SCF – $4.1k
I’m not sure he sees the shot upside to really hit a ceiling. I don’t have Freiburg winning. However, if they do, this pricing will be criminal and I don’t see Freiburg getting blown out. Very much in play in all formats.
Literally just anyone who isn’t playing someone on your roster and fits your salary cap. I don’t love GK on this slate.
GOOD LUCK! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies.