Your boy Duke has your back for the Saturday DFS slate in the Bundesliga!!
LAST BUNDESLIGA SLATE OF THE YEAR!!
All games kickoff at the exact same time. All teams are playing. This is going to be madness. I’ll break down who’s playing for something in the slate thoughts but motivation will be key here.
To the desert…
-Bayer Leverkusen -400 3.5 (-120o/EVENu)
-Borussia Dortmund -140 3.5 (-110o/-110u)
-Monchengladbach -305 3.5 (-105o/-115u)
Hertha Berlin +700
-Eintracht Frankfurt -305 3.5,4 (EVENo/-120u)
-Augsburg +600 3.5 (EVENo/-120u)
RB Leipzig -265
-Werder Bremen -170 3,3.5 (-115o/-105u)
-Freiburg -125 3 (-105o/-115u)
-Union Berlin +280 2.5,3 (-110o/-110u)
-Wolfsburg +295 3.5 (-105o/-115u)
Bayern Munich -135
Jesus. I literally cannot wait to see the lineup that takes it down. The possibilities are endless.
The inclination is to target the best players. I get it. I’m asking you to expand your horizons a touch. It’s not always the big dogs who really go off on the final day. Let’s talk a few examples from the last few years here.
#1 – Wolfsburg v Augsburg
The upside was limited and the downside was almost nil for Augsburg. They weren’t going to be relegated and wouldn’t be in the relegation playoff regardless of the result. For Wolfsburg, they were in a HUGE battle for Europa League. They were also behind Frankfurt and Gladbach on goal difference and needed a big result in this game to make it possible. Seems like a good game to target, right?
Holy shit. I’m not sure we’ll see an 8-1 game on SAT but this is what can happen. Here are the scores from the last game of the season and the final table:
If you go year by year you’ll see that having something to play for really matters. So who has something to play for this season?
Let’s go down the table:
#1 Bayern – Won the title. Nothing to play for. Match fitness is great but the risk of injury is there.
#2 Borussia Dortmund – Nothing to play for. Locked into #2 and the UCL next season. Home favorites against Hoffenheim regardless.
#3 RB Leipzig – With goal differential, they are in no matter what to UCL next year. Werner is off to Chelsea after this game.
#4 Monchengladbach – A draw or win sees them hang on to the 4th spot with the ability to move up to 3 if things go their way. Certainly motivated to play.
#5 Leverkusen – Expect them to go ham if they can. They have to win for UCL possibilities and hope for results to go their way. They could lose by 100 and still make the Europa League.
#6 Wolfsburg – Currently hanging on to the last Europa League spot, tied on points with Hoffenheim who have a tough match against Dortmund. Goal differential is very much in their favor.
#7 Hoffenheim – See above! Tied on points with Wolfsburg and will be desperate to get a win and leapfrog Wolfsburg for Europa League.
#8 Freiburg – Can’t move up. Could move down 1 spot if they lose and Frankfurt wins. I’m not sure they care and their form has been all over the map.
#9 Frankfurt – Can move up or down but without real consequence either way. Form has been good. Playing last place Paderborn.
#10 Hertha Berlin – Steered clear of the relegation zone and have earned their safety. I have no idea what to expect from this team. They book-ended 3 straight losses with wins.
#11 Schalke – Staying up despite their recent performances that include losses in 4 of their last 6.
#12 Union Berlin – Holy balls they are staying up. Back-to-Back wins over Koln and Paderborn secured their safety. Considering they aren’t a high flying squad to begin with, I’m not sure how much I’ll have.
#13 Mainz – On form alone they are in the top half for sure. They can’t be relegated. They can’t move into the top half if they win by a million.
#14 Koln – The worst team since the break in my opinion. 4 losses from 6. They are staying up and can’t go down. We’ll target them in DFS.
#15 Augsburg – Safe! They can’t go down as the bottom three are set. With a win they could move to possibly 11th if multiple results go their way. Is that important to them?
#16 Dusseldorf – They have to win to be secure no matter what. If they draw and Werder Bremen win by 5 goals they are automatically relegated.
#17 Werder Bremen – HAVE to win and win big. They are playing that deflated tire in FC Koln. <EYES EMOJI>
#18 Paderborn – Adios amigos. Hola Bundesliga 2!
If Weghorst scores 2 and Sancho doesn’t score he would be in 3rd on his own for the scoring charts.
Hennings sitting 5th on 15.
Haaland is on 13 goals and has only played since January.
Thomas Muller looks to have the assist title wrapped up. Jason Sancho needs 4 to tie.
TEAMS TO TARGET
Werder Bremen ++
- Lewandowski – BAY – $11.5k
CAN’T STOP SCORING. Not sure he starts but if he does he bags a goal.
- Alario – LEV – $7k
He took his goal well against Bayern and took 8 shots against Schalke. They are huge favorites and Volland doesn’t look right. Assuming he starts, I love this spot.
- Silva – SGE – $8.7k
This is absolutely make or break. GPP to a T. Paderborn are already on the bus home. There is huge potential here for a blow out. Silva is on form to score. He and Bas Dost are both in play. I will have a Frankfurt stack. Don’t go all in!
- Osaka – SVW – $6.6k
My heart says go American! Grab Josh Sargeant! My wallet says, Osaka has been pretty damn good man. Koln are ass and have nothing to play for. The issue with Werder is they haven’t shown the ability to go the hell off but I want and expect a big performance.
- Haaland – BVB – $9.5k
I’m lower on Haaland at the moment based on matchup and what’s at stake plus his price. Can he score? Of course. He’s a favorite to score. Will he do enough to justify this price?
- Embolo – MGB – $7.6k
I almost feel obliged to include him. Sure, he could score and Gladbach need to play well but it’s a 9 game slate. I can list 100 players.
- Hennings – F95 – $6.8k
Come on, man. This is too expensive. But, he’s popping the shots off. Will take several lineups for me to get there but he’s in play.
- Kramaric – TSG – $6.7k
DEEP sleeper in GPP. Back from a long term injury and slowly built up his minutes. Grabbed a goal last week. Tough matchup.
- Dabbur – TSG – $6.4k
I was sucking this guy’s D for weeks after watching his first few games back…of course he didn’t score. Since? 4 goals in 4 games. Run worse Duke, you can’t. Don’t love him this week but you know me and hot forwards. I’ll have a Dabbur lineup.
- Havertz – LEV – $8.8k
It’s weird because prior to the break I’d say he needs to play CAM but now, in this team and this system, I want him to play at the forward position. He has the highest goal scoring odds on the slate because Leverkusen NEED to win here and he’s an impact player.
- Kostc – SGE – $10.9k
Could Kostic score 50? Ha! Probably not. Oddly enough he did have a 50 point game this season against Augsburg just 4 games after their first Paderborn match. Against Pad he put in 16 crosses with only 7 corners. That gives you the idea of his open play value. He registered only 1 shot but I expect that to improve. Based on who I’m targeting in the value range, this price doesn’t seem too ridiculous.
- Trimmel – FCU – $6.9k
Hesitant here but he’s so damn consistent and running out of time on his career. I expect a good performance here.
- Skov – TSG – $7k
He’s been a staple in our cash lineups and that could continue. I don’t know that he’s a must play here. Surely he’s ok but he only put up 2 crosses and 2 shots the last time these teams met. Upside is on the lower range this week.
- Klaassen – SVW – $5.8k
GPP only but I can’t but include him in a Werder Mini-stack on Saturday. His form has been insane. Insanely efficient. Probably hard to repeat every week. But insane.
- Eggestein – SVW – $3.5k
Hear me out. Selassie is questionable and Eggestein could play in a wider role to compensate. At this price that’s a tough fade. He grabbed his only goal of the season just 13 days ago but plays as a deep lying midfielder. This would be a big boom to his DFS production.
- Sow – SGE – $3.9k
Grabbed an assist last time out with 1 shot and 3 crosses. Forward player on a team we are targeting.
- Kimmich – BAY – $7.7k
Too cheap if he starts.
- Neuhaus – MGB – $6.9k
Mid-range potential goal scorer. He’s been in decent form and finds the space to fire shots. He’s had 5 shots in 2 of his last 4 games at under $7k.
- Bittencourt – SVW – $6.1k
There’s nothing to rest for in the future. This is their last game of the season so his age and fitness don’t matter here. They need a W. The price is tasty but his form has suffered a bit of late.
- Bemsebini – MGB – $5.8k
You are paying way up for this player but he came back after serving his suspension to grab an assist on 3 crosses. Has some set piece equity but mostly Grifo.
- Frield – SVW – $5.5k
I swear I’m not stacking Bremen everywhere but he’s in play with sets, open play value.
- Davies – BAY – $6.2k
- Hinteregger – SGE – $3.8k
BIG CB with 8 goals on the year and a likely clean sheet to boot. Good for all contests.
- Hubner – TSG – $3.3k
2 and 3 shots in back to back starts. Pretty pretty pretty good for the price.
- Baku – M05 – $4.7k
Assists in 2 straight has helped his logs but he’s still around 2x without it. Tough game though.
Let’s figure this out in chat
Play who doesn’t hurt your team.
Look to the big favs