Your boy Duke has your back for Saturday’s 4 match slate in the Bundesliga!!
It felt pretty darn good to put together cash and GPP lineups again. Saturday was a smash situation. Sunday was a bit meh to be honest. I don’t even love the 2 game slates. I think I’d rather have them put out 2 showdown slates but beggars can’t be choosers when we’ve been without soccer for this long.
We have a big ol’ $100k tourney on DK already for Saturday with $25k up top. 9th and 10th place get a cool $500 on a $15 entry. Not the flat structure we love but the $25k will draw in some casuals. Speaking of casuals, the H2H lobby had some new faces. Pick them off one by one if you are a cash game player. We never know how long they’ll stick around to grab as many of their games as you can. Screw everyone else!
For Saturday, this was my main GPP squad:
This is from the $100k contest where it finished 743. Nothing to write home about but I wanted to talk about the construction. Without Sancho, Guerreiro seemed like a must play. Open play plus sets was a no brainer. Then Julian Brandt took most set pieces and Raph bagged a brace. Go figure.
We stacked the biggest favorite on the board here with RB and got an absolute stinker from Gulasci and the team in general. Poulsen playing through the middle pushed Werner out wide which hurt his goal impact.
Red Bull in general just looked rusty. Their high flowing attack requires an understanding between players – a synergy. It looked absent on Saturday. Werner was fine. Angelino was fine. Fine doesn’t take down any GPPs. Add in Dortmund going off and while this team cashed, thanks in part to our boy Cunha scoring a goal!!, we didn’t even sniff the big money.
Overall, the 5 subs + regaining fitness + rust + no fans added a ton of factors to consider. The biggest in my mind is the reduced impact of home/away. Dortmund were the only home team to win. Koln were up 2-0 at home and conceded 2 second half goals to give away 2 points and ruin my Sunday. It’s a small sample size but minor little tweaks have been added.
Let’s head to the desert…
-Borussia Monchengladback +135 3. 3.5 EVENo/-120u
Bayer Leverkusen +180
-Freiburg +125 2.5, 3 (-110o/-110u)
Werder Bremen +215
-Paderborn +230 3 (-105o/-115u)
-Wolfsburg +345 3 (EVENo/-120u)
Borussia Dortmund -135
This is the game of the weekend. 2 teams on the rise. Some thought they were playing over their skis but they’ve both shown their form throughout the season but especially after the re-start in their first game back.
Gladbach won their first match this season on the road 2-1. We’ve seen that the home field doesn’t matter as much but you have to like them to get the job done here again against a Levekusen team who can’t stop scoring at the moment. This game has the highest total on the slate and big name players. I expect ownership here from the field.
Freiburg are the home faovrites here over a Werder team who frankly, looked awful last weekend and have been since early November. Werder sit 17th in the table, only above Paderborn. They drew the first game at Bremen 2-2 and I do think both teams will score in this game. The Vegas line opened with Freiburg at +148 and has been bet down to +115 on some books.
Werder needs to start over.
I’m not really reading into the shit show that was Hoffenheim last week. Good teams looked bad and I rated Hertha better than Hoffenheim regardless. Hoffenheim haven’t won since February 1 but we know Paderorn can be used to boost your record.
Hoffenheim won the first match 3-0. I see the result being the same but I’m not sure on the actual outcome/total.
2 of the hottest teams in the Bundesliga face off Saturday morning. Dormtund have won 5 in a row and 8 of their last 9. Wolfsburg have won 4 of thei last 7 games and are without a defeae since Jan 25th. They are susceptible at the back and we know how quickly Dortmund can couter attack.
Can they stop Haaland? Can they score the chances that they get?
- Haaland – BVB – $9.7k
Unfortuantely i had more Werner than Haaland. Big mistake. One I won’t make this week. His stat line is typical for him. He only needs 1 chance to bag one. Tietering on cash consideration but top GPP forward.
- Grifo – SCF – $7.9k
For all the reasons we love him last week, he’s back on our list but in a plus matchup. Very much in cash consideration. He was subbed off in the 68h minute and split corners with Gunter so this isn’t an all in situation but one we’ll monitor that can provide some salary relief.
- Skov – HOF – $7.5k
We still don’t have a ton of clarity with their set piece situation but with Skov playing further up the field and leading the team with 7 crosses he’s firmly in play for cash. I do like HOF to grab the win as well but does he have enough upside to win a GPP? We’ll know after team news on Saturday.
- Plea – MGB – $9k
He was able to pick up the most shots in the Bundesliga and find the back of the net once. Tough matchup but they are at home and Leverkusen will concede. GPP only.
- Sancho – BVB – $10.2k
He’s going to need a big game to justify this price from open play. Brandt looked good on set pieces. I’d imagine Guerreiro isn’t losing his place after a 2 goal performance so the set piece situation is murky at best for Sancho. He’s an assist machine so I’ll have some of him but he’s my ‘not so fast my friend’ play of the weekend as it stands on Thursday. Check back Saturday morning…
- Hazard – BVB – $8.4k
I don’t believe he starts but this is here in case he does. Gio Reyna was going to start over him until the injury and on short notice he was able to come in and produce a banger. 1 goal and an assist while going 79 minutes is about his ceiling. Much more difficult opponent and they are away but like Nkunku from Leipzig, he produces more than his talent should allow.
- Havertz – LEV – $9.1k
I wondered out loud if he could lead the line and all he did was bag 2 goals with his head. Go on big man! The youngster is silky smooth on the ball and whether it’s at F or CAM, he’s in and around the goals.
- Brandt – BVB – $7.2k
Dortmund are on fire and I was really impressed in particular with Julian Brandt. He had 2 assists on 5 crosses while also picking up 5 tackles with some set piece duty. If Sancho is back he’ll chip into the last piece but we still expect a BVB win here.
- Bellarabi – LEV – $8.5k
I’m guessing Diaby keeps his place but Bellarabi comes in on the other wing. He’s a cross a minute kind of guy. If he finds space it’s going it. Great to pair with Havertz if you can make the salary work.
- Guerreiro – BVB – $7k
Getting towards the top end of my comfort range for his ability and set piece share. He only put in 1 cross but had 4 shots. He’ll likely flip those stats in this matchup with an assist.
- Bittnecourt – SVW – $6.8k
I loved what I saw from him last week. He looked sharp everywhere on the field except for the key area in the box. He put up 17.6 points but missed a 1v1 with the keeper that hit ROW Z in the stands. I’m glad because I’m sure not many people saw his deep run from midfield to get in on goal. Upside pick.
- Demirbay – LEV – $8.3k
Pricey but you are getting what you pay for. He took 4 corners and another free kick while scoring a goal and picking up 1 assist. MUCH stiffer task and we should see the likes of Bellarabi back in the first 11. In the pool but not at the top of the list.
- Baumgartner – TSG – $6.3k
Perfect mid-range overlooked player with some upside. Manged 3 shots last week and does have 2 goals in his last 5 games. Good way to pick on Paderborn without breaking the bank trusting an average team.
- Proger – SCP – $8.1k
I said he has a set piece monopoly and he did. Yep, he took 2 free kicks and 0 corners. That’s the tough thing about a team that doesn’t attack. Mostly a fade but be aware of him.
- Kaderabeck – TSG – $5.9k – borderline value play but crossing machine
- Rudy – TSG – $4.7k
- Reyna – BVB – $4.3k
- Eggestein – SVW – $3.8k
- Gunter – SCF – $5.8k
Plus matchup with set piece work. Expensive but solid.
- Otavio – WOB – $5.6k
Went 3x for us last weekend but much tougher matchup. In the pool but not a must play.
- Singraven – LEV – $4.1k
Weiser got the goal but I was way more impressed with Singraven’s role in the team. He pushed extremely far forward and put crosses in the box. They were really without a target even though Havertz bagged 2 with his head. Hurts his value a touch but still a stud.
- Mbabu – WOB – $5.2k
Pretty expensive for his ability to be honest but he did manage 7 crosses and picked up an assist. He is on the opposite side that Sancho would be lining up which could allow him to push forward.
- Benebaini – MGB – $6.4k
YO! This price is bonkers. Is this guy good or not? He’s all or nothing.
These are his scores dating back to October. Sub appearances highlighted in red.
22.3, 9.8, 25.2, 5.8, 0.6, 4.8, 0.7, 30.5, 7.8, 7.6, 15.2, -1.3, 5.8.
Ok so he’s definitely not in consideration as a sub but he still has (2) 5.8, a 4.8 and (2) mid 7 performances in 10 games. The upside is huge but he scored in every single big game. The floor is not there to justify the price. If you want to take stabs in GPPs feel free. I’ll mostly be off him.
I’m likely waiting for Saturday and confirmed lineups before completing my D slots. It might be a 1 high end + 1 CB kind of slate.
- Baumann – TSG – $5.3k
Was hoping he’d be under $5k but still like the W/CS odds.
- Sommer – MGB – $4.8k
He’s really impressed me this year. The LEV attack is scary but upside here.
- Schwolow – SCF – $5.1k
- Burki – BVB – $5.5k
Worried about them conceding but should still get the win.