Your boy Duke has your back for Sunday’s two game split slate in the Bundesliga!!
Well boys, we smashed it. I think we had varying degrees of smashing but overall we should have won money on that slate. Our cash core was pretty darn good:
That along with Mittelstadt’s 19.5 should basically have been enough to cash in most H2Hs and double ups. Cunha bagged his goal. Haaland went off. Leipzig were disappointing which really hurt Werner’s output but overall it was a good first day.
Just a couple of notes:
Brandt took most of the set pieces for Dortmund. Guerreiro went off and did take a few but I was impressed with Brandt from open play as well. We needed more of him.
Gio Reyna picked up an injury during warmups and the info was sent out JUST before kickoff. I even tried to pivot and get word in the chat but wasn’t able to in time. He was highly owned in all contests but it definitely hurt. This is something we need to think of moving forward as information might be harder to get without fans in attendance and proper coverage pre-game from the networks.
Nkunku took more sets than I anticipated for Leipzig as well. It hurt Angelino a touch but, overall, Leipzig weren’t themselves for 80 minutes of that game. Angelino also still went for 2x+
Alright let’s move on to Sunday. I got some beers to drink to celebrate!
First, it’s a split slate with the first game at 9:30 and the second not until 12. The Bayern game at 12 will carry quite a bit of ownership and obviously we won’t have team news at lock at 9:30. For those that are new, that does not mean we are stuck. We do have the ability to pivot. We can talk more tomorrow in the chat.
For now, we head to the desert….
-FC Koln -110 2.5,3 (-120o/EVENu)
FSV Mainz +295
-Union Berlin +1300 3,3.5 (-110o/-110u)
Bayern Munich -500
Koln sit in 10th in the table and are rightly the favorite here v 15th place Mainz. Koln are doing almost all of their damage at home where this game will take place. Koln had certainly found a little something before the break. They’d won 8 of their last 11 matches averaging almost 2.5 goals per game. Considerign Mainz are conceding 2.67 goals per game away from home we certainly need to look for options from the home side.
Bayern are good. Very very very good in fact. Union Berlin have surprised me with their relative success this season, especially at home. They have impressive home wins against Dortmund and Monchengladbach. Bayern beat Union Berlin 2-1 in the reverse fixture at home and we need to put that in perspective. The score was close but the stats were not. Bayern outshot UB 20 to 6 and UB’s goal was an 86th minute penalty converted by Sebastian Polter. That was penalty 2 of 2 as Sebastian Anderson missed one in the 58th minute. I say all that to say this, UB were murdered 5-0 by Dortmund away and won the home fixture 3-1. Freiburg took them behind the woodshed with a 3-1 win away only for UB to come back at home and beat them 2-0. This team is different at home.
BUT – it’s Bayern. Coming off a quarantine… With Lewandowski who is desperate to set goal scoring records…. In a ‘closer than expected’ title race. We will get Bayern’s best effort and they will win but perhaps closer than the experts think.
Overall ownership will trend towards Koln and Bayern and that’s the path we’ll be taking as well. Getting different will be tough.
- Lewandowski – BAY – $12.6k
Let’s talk about the potential fade. It’s obvious the guy is a good play. -350 goal scoring odds implies multiple goals, not just 1. 25.2 is 2x. In the Bundesliga this season he’s eclipsed 25 points 7 times. In those 7 games he’s scored 2 goals six times. It appears we NEED 2 goals to hit 2x. However, consider this: Lewandowski has scored at least 1 goal in 18 of his 23 Bundesliga games. That included his “cold streak” where he didn’t score in 3 straight games in late NOV/early DEC. It’s also a 2 game slate that isn’t exactly littered with players that can score 15-20 points. He’s carrying the Q tag but projected to start. At this price we need a floor to justify the cost and he certainly has one. Lewa’s floor here is 1 goal with 5-6 shots. If he does start, I’m nearly all in.
- Uth – KOE – $9.9k
He’s been absolutely on fire in 2020. He’s even taken over free kicks from Florian Kainz. Add that with his goal upside and it’s easy to justify the price here.
- Cordoba – KOE – $8.2k
I love this guy’s game. He’s big, athletic and quick in the final third. He’s an absolute handful in the final third but can be a bit wasteful at times. I want Koln pieces and he’s #2 on my list.
- Muller – BAY – $12.2k
Easier to justify this fade than Lewa’s but they play 2 different roles within the team. Muller’s 16 assists are not quite out of left field but his new role as provider has given him a second life later in his career. Not a fade but I’ll have less than the field.
- Andersson – FCU – $4.2k
Scores goal in bunches…literally… Scored in three straigh in August then nothing. Scored in 3 of 4 in November then nothing. Scored in 3 straight in March just before the shut down. Does he carry that momentum through the quarantine? It’s a stretch, especially considering the matchup but for the price he provides value for upside.
- Quaison – M05 – $6.8k
The upside on this man is insane. He had a 40 point banger in early February and put up 21 DK pts in late February. Koln are good at home but not impenetrable.
- Ingvartsen – FCU – $3.9k
IF ANDERSSON MISSES, he’s likely to start. At under $4k we can shove in many Bayern pieces and make up for any potential lack of production we get from him. He’s scored in 2 of his last 4 starts.
- Gnabry – BAY – $10.4k
If I’m grabbing 2 pieces from Bayern it’s Lewa and Gnabry. I’ll figure out the rest of my lineup later. Gnabry is world class but a bit of a form player. He’s streaky and was absolutely on a heater to finish the season before the break. If he picks up where he left off then 2-3x is very attainable. You are paying for it but in a Bayern win it’s hard to see him not hitting his numbers.
- Jacobs – KOE – $4.5k
Carrying the Questionable tag because he tested positive for Covid a couple weeks ago but could be an option. When he plays, he comes off the wing and is involved in the attack. Only 2 goals and 1 assist in 14 games but for the price and matchup I love the upside.
- Davies – BAY – $7.4k
Plays LB but flies forward. He’s an exhilarating teenager who’s a ton of fun to watch and has big upside. In the player pool. Not a must play.
- Andrich – FCU – $3.4k
He can certainly scrape together peripherals to hit value. Upside is limited.
- Kimmich – BAY – $5.6k
Davies listed as a M/F and Kimmich listed as a D. Hmm. Anyway, this is too cheap. Plug and play. No Coutinho means he should have all set pieces and value from open play.
- Trimmel – FCU – $4.8k
The do everything fullback for Union Berlin is under $5k and takes every set piece inside the opponents half. Cash option. GPP as well.
- Alaba – BAY – $4k
He has been playing more CB with the emergence of Davies but he does pick up some peripherals and of course has the CS odds with him.
- Mwene – M05 – $2.8k
The guy played in back to back games where he took 6 set pieces and followed that up by playing 90 minutes and not taking a single free kick. Soooo yeah. Can we assume he takes them if he starts? No. Is it worth the upside if he does for $2.8k? I’ll take my chances to grab more Bayern and high upside Koln players.
- Ehizibue – KOE – $4.7k
Ever present at right back. He loves to get forward and put crosses in the box but just doesn’t produce enough to take him over Trimmel even in a + matchup.
- Pavard – BAY – $4.9k
Benefits from defenses shifting to the left. This is a touch expensive on a normal slate but with just 2 games he’s very much in play.
- Shmitz – KOE – $3.9k
Cheap fullback who starts at times. Worth a flier for cost savings.
- Martin – M05 – $4.6k
I guess the safest of the Mainz defenders but he’s lost set piece responsibilities which does limit his upside a bit.
- Horn – KOE – $5.3k
Fav GK for the price if you have the money.
- Gikiewicz – FCU – $3.6k
Imagine… They do play well at home!
- Neuer – BAY – $5.9k