Your boy Duke has your back for the Friday DFS slate in the EPL!!
Gents – a quick content note. The Bundesliga article will not be out until late Friday. DK has made the decision to run a Classic slate contest but not post pricing until Friday afternoon. Soooo…yeah.
BUT, let’s jump into EPL. Hopefully you guys made some money in the big SD slate on WED. We have MORE SD contests. This is going to be a longer article breaking down several different slates. I’ll try my best to make things clear. As always, if you have questions hit me on twitter @dukedfs.
To the desert…
- Norwich City +220 | 2.5,3 (+105o/-125u)
- Southampton +120
- DRAW +250
- Tottenham +190 | 2.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Man United +140
- DRAW +240
It’s funny the things you remember being true when they just in no way are. For example, I distinctly remember Norwich starting out on fire. I mean, sort of…they beat Newcastle in their second game and shocked the world against City in their 5th game. It had more to do with Pukki going ham and teams getting used to Norwich than them being fast starters. At the point they are who we thought they were.
Southampton are a fun little team sitting in 14th. They’ve combined nice wins v Leicester and Chelsea with shocking losses to West Ham (twice) and Bournemouth. They will have to see this as a massive opportunity for 3 points.
Think Mourinho will have some motivation to get a W here against his former squad? Harry Kane is back but Alli is out and Lo Celso is questionable. We do know that typically Mourinho is a fast starter with his squads and with this abbreviated pre-season type of feel you’d have to think the gap between the teams has closed here, not that the gap was that large to begin.
These teams were heading in polar opposite directions before Covid. United will have hated to take the break considering they’d won 3 of their prior 4 matches. Tottenham lost 2 and then drw just before the break. Not only that but the typically Jose bullshit was starting to raise it’s head. Getting Kane back is so massive for so many reasons. Leadership is one. A super star in the locker room to check Jose’s attitude is 2. Goal scoring is 3. There are more but let’s move on.
For United, the big question as always is around Paul Pogba. Does he start? He’s a huge boost to the squad depth if he’s rusty. If he’s 100%, United are adding one of the best players to the squad. Really high end players like that raise their game when surrounded by other world class players. United fans will be excited to see Paul next to Bruno or even playing behind him depending on how they decide to play.
United are rightly slight favorites here. Both teams have classy players but United have the cutting edge now with Bruno, Martial and healthy Rashford.
I’ll quickly detail targets for the 2 game CLASSIC slate but the majority will be around the bigger TOT/MU Showdown slate.
Pukki – NOR – $5.4k
Call me crazy but he goes 3x.
Buendia – NOR – $7.2k
Might not get here due to price and other options but the one to pair with Pukki.
Ward-Prowse – SOU – $7.3k
Just $100 more than Buendia and a near monopoly of set pieces plus PK duty for the favorite.
Ings – SOU – $7.9k
Even if he scores I can see him in the 13-15 range. We’ll certainly take that but without the goal it’s bleak. Thankfully Norwich are leaky at the back.
Bertrand – SOU – $5k
Hueng-Min – TOT – $8.8k
One of the best players on the road. He’s had a taste of military life. He’ll be eager to perform to never go back there again!
Lamela – TOT – $6.4k
Bit of risk involved here but this is assuming no Lo Celse.
Sessegnon – TOT – $3k
No F designation or he’d be much higher on the list. Decent extreme value player if you want to spend up.
Kane – TOT – $9.2k
Likely fading Kane. Healthy plus matchup are not my favorite.
Martial – MU – $8.3k
Grabs a goal in the win.
Rashford – MU – $9k
If he starts he’ll be my highest owned player on the slate. Shots. Set pieces. Goals. Assists. He does it all.
B Fernandes – MU- $9.5k
You are paying for the floor here. The majority of his equity comes from brilliant open play. That is always a touch harder to project but I have him justifying this price in the 16 pt + range.
James – MU – $4.4k
Price play with upside.
Wan-Bissaka – MU – $4.7k
Decent D option.
- De Gea
As we saw AGAIN, impact off the bench can be the difference between profit and a loss. I’m always adjusting my process and I will certainly be expanding my player pool in big field GPPs. In a single entry I’m not. In cash I’m not. If making 1 roster I’m not. If making 3 rosters I’m not. If making more than 5 lineups then we can certainly consider some subs. We’ll get to that later. The idiot that took down the $50k first place on Wednesday played both GKs and Phil Foden in a 3-0 win. Up is down. Down is up.
- De Gea
- Watford +235 | 2.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Leicester City +110
- DRAW +250
This line is spooky. Why aren’t Leicester like -250? What am I missing?
No pricing available but I’m anticipating a SD slate here. I won’t be up for team news so feel free to play at your own risk.
I’m targeting the usual suspects.
CLASSIC SAT SLATE
- Brighton +215 | 2.5 (-105o/-115u)
- Arsenal +125
- DRAW +240
- West Ham +245 | 2.5 (+105o/-125u)
- Wolves +110
- DRAW +240
- Bournemouth +145 2,2.5 (-120o/EVENu)
- Crystal Palace +190
- DRAW +230
Tough break for Arsenal playing catch up on games right out of the gate. Luiz is suspended. Mari is hurt. Xhaka is hurt. Lacazette STILL isn’t starting for some reason. This team is in shambles. The extra game will help them settle a little bit and there were a few bright spots against City.
Brighton were in a tough spot just before the break. It had been a steady slow tumble down the table where they sit 15th on 29 points. They are just 2 points from the relegation zone. They haven’t won a Premier League game since 2019 but have only lost 3 games. Brighton won the reverse fixture 2-1.
Considering all of the issues with Arsenal I can see this ending in a draw.
Wolves are super solid. Jimenez was on fire prior to the break. They are completely healthy with access to the full squad. This appears to be a Wolves win.
West Ham are finally healthy with only Ogbanna set to miss this fixture. They are straight trash on the road. They score only 0.8 goals/game while conceding twice that. In a way, these teams are the exact opposite in how they play.
Wolves won the reverse fixture 2-0 and I can see a similar result.
Bournemouth are in trouble. Let’s start there. They sit in 18th place, in the relegation zone. Their best player, Ryan Fraser, has said he won’t extend his contract and no longer wants to play for the club. They need results but won’t have the horses to pull this off.
Palace is super solid but uninspiring. What’s the total on this game? 1? Palace have dominated the bottom half of the table at home but haven’t exactly been terrible away. The 1-0 win over Bournemouth in the reverse fixture is a good preview of how I expect the game to play.
Aubameyang – ARS – $10k
Best goal scoring odds on the slate and should have some more help considering potential team news. Arsenal have the ability to score in bunches and for upside, he’s tops.
Saka – ARS – $5.5k
Definitely a cash option. Tierney looked pretty good at LB and Saka playing further forward with set piece equity on a slight favorite is a great place to start in cash.
Jimenez – WOL – $9.6k
Biggest favorite on the board and only +130 to score any time. Good to pair with Traore in GPPs but neither are my favorite plays for cash. Of the 2, I’d prefer Jimenez with his 4.5 average shots over his last 4 games.
Zaha – CP – $7.4k
He was fouled 5 times last game against Bounrmeouth but only fired 1 shot. He’s +250 to score. He’s surprisingly low the goal+assist total but that has as much to do with the talent around him.
Pepe – ARS – $9.8k
An unused sub on Wednesday but I expect Arteta to use his best 11 here to bounce back from the City performance. When playing, he does have at least a share of the set piece duty and with Xhaka out, may have the majority or monopoly.
H Wilson – BOU – $7.3k
With no Fraser his set piece equity goes up. Palace are solid defensively but he has that culture left foot that can win us a slate.
Ozil – ARS – $5.8k
As much as I hated him on Wednesday I have to admit he’s in play here. You’d think he’d get a chance to play but he was completely left out of the squad against City. We need to monitor this situation to see how it plays out but if he starts, this is value pricing.
Ceballos – ARS – $5.5k
You know who definitely plays? Dani. He was really trying to add some dynamism to the hapless Arsenal performance. If he sits deeper it’s ok but I prefer him playing further forward so let’s make sure Guendouzi is partnering with him in the midfield to handle those strictly defensive responsibilities.
Moutinho – WOL – $9k
I believe the upside is limited here and this price is outrageous but this is a toss up slate and we will need to pay for the floor in cash. I’m mostly avoiding in GPP.
Milivojevic – CP – $6.4k
Set pieces and PKs. That is his value. He’ll get some tackles and interceptions but really the upside comes from the first two. Without him it’s been McCarthy and van Aanholt taking set pieces.
Neves – WOL – $3.9k
Decent value option with upside.
Van Aanholt – CP – $6.3k
This price makes sense if no Milivojevic. If Mili is in, it makes this price tougher to justify. 2x very realistic with sets.
Doherty – WOL – $5.9k
He’s the perfect GPP option to include with WOL stack if you are heading that route. 4 goals in 27 games.
Cresswell – WH – $5.1k
Just super solid. Crossing floor with the occasional direct free kick and shots.
Rico – BOU – $4.9k
If no Fraser nor H Wilson, might be all in with Rico here just for the set piece equity. From open play he does swing some balls in the box but who’s going to get on the end of the cross? Callum Wilson? Josh King? Limited upside.
Boly – WOL – $3.6k
Wily Boly goal from Moutinho. Take that $12.6k and invest it!
Ake – BOU – $2.7k
The next CB I have getting good chances on set pieces.
Guiata – CP – $4.6k
Fabianksi – WH – $4.3k
Save upside but the game could be a bore.
Leno – ARS – $5.1k
Looked really good against City and they are a slight favorite.