Game by game analysis and positional breakdowns from your boy Duke for Tuesday’s EPL DFS action!!
Lil two-gamer here for a Tuesday afternoon. I’ll have another big article out Tuesday for Wednesday’s slate as well. A game Saturday, followed by a game Tuesday and then another game Saturday/Sunday weighs on you. You basically just need to take the points when you can because there are no guarantees in December in the Prem.
Let’s head to the desert…
-CP +110 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)
-BUR +1100 3 (-125o/+105u)
SHOUT OUT to Crystal Palace on the HUGE away result v Burnley last time out. Look, I bet on Burnley. Every metric I had pointed to Burnley. The shot total (15/7) was in Burnley’s favor. The big chances (4/1) were in Burnley’s favor. The score line was not. Palace wins 2-0 with goals from Zaha and super sub Schlupp. Does that change my opinion of Palace? Slightly.
Palace to me are always a team that will struggle to score but will put 100% energy to keep the clean sheet and hope their flare players make the difference. The issue with Palace is they simply haven’t been keeping clean sheets. In fact, prior to the clean sheet this past weekend, they’d conceded two goals in five straight matches. That’s insanely horrible. That’s relegation form considering their inability to find the back of the net. Bravo for the result but I’m not doing cartwheels projecting their future success.
Bournemouth really got put through the ringer by Tottenham. The scoreline is flattering thanks to two Harry Wilson goals that came late (73rd and 96th). The game wasn’t in doubt after Dele Alli’s first goal in the 21st minute. What a resurgence he’s made by the way! That’s now three losses on the trot for a Bournemouth team that always struggles for consistency. In this instance, that’s a good thing.
They are always one game away from a staggering performance in a road win or something. They have scored in four straight which is positive. Their last goal from a F came back on November 2nd by Josh King. Harry Wilson has three since with Steve Cook popping up with the other. It’s not a good run of form for the men in front of goal and if they don’t get Callum Wilson going soon, it’s going to be a rough run into the new year.
We’ve just talked about Palace and Burnley and here we are again. For me, I like the form table I’m seeing out of Burnley. The fact remains, it takes three draws to get the same points as one win. Win or lose. That should be the goal for so many of these middling teams to work their way into the top six. Burnley have done just that, with their last draw coming back in September. Since, it’s been three wins and three losses. Give me that if I’m a fan of Burnley. As long as the results aren’t super lopsided, what’s wrong with that? This will likely be one of those losses. They did tie City with the home fixture last season 1-1. Reminder, that was in a title winning season for City. Burnley are tough to play against but City have their way of doing things that generally leads to success.
This season not so much. However, let’s put this into perspective. It’s ok FOR CITY. They still sit 3rd in the table in the toughest league in the world. They have nine wins and three losses this season. They have +23 goal differential. On their day, they can blow out most teams in the world. They will still have 60-70% possession. They will still outshoot most teams they play. They play an extremely different style of play to Burnley and will be on the front foot all day. Sean Dyche has never beaten Pep or City so I expect three points for the team in blue.
(For the week)
- Sterling – MCI – $10.1k
Oh boy do I want some City. Jesus looked lost last time out so I’d prefer to grab one of the wide players. Sterling’s goal odds justify the price here. His goal last game will give him the confidence to push forward.
- Zaha – CP – $7.8k
Is he scoring goals now? Two in two but scored on his only shot against Burnley. The man is a creative force and it’s a two-game slate so the guy plays.
- McNeil – BUR – $6.4k
I was a touch worried about Robbie Brady being in the first 11 but McNeil still managed to put in 12 crosses with three shots. The big one is JBG and he remains out for this matchup. City will have a ton of the ball but in limited chances he could produce.
- Mahrez – MCI – $9.2k
Lackluster performance last time out but that doesn’t change his upside much. He’s almsot matchup dependent and assuming he plays off the right, as he typically does, the matchup against Charlie Taylor or Erik Pieters is ++++.
- Jesus – MCI – $9k
Goal upside GPP play.
- Wilson – BOU – $5.5k
If you don’t mind setting money on fire with the hope of a goal on a two-game slate that might not have many, here’s your man.
- De Bruyne – MCI – $10.6k
Top play on the slate. Wondering if he’ll be 75% or 100% owned in cash.
- Milivojevic – CP – $7k
Much better at home than away, especially when they are meant to be competitive in the game. Still on Pen duty.
- H Wilson – BOU – $5.9k
This isn’t chasing. I was the first on Harry Wilson when he scored is goal early in the season. I’m on this train all the way to when he returns to Liverpool and finds minutes there. Kid has a sweet left foot. He also managed five shots in 27 minutes against Tottenham. He’s shoot on site type of talent.
- Fraser – BOU – $6.7k
Let us down this weekend but the floor points were just off the mark. The upside was completely gone. Palace are only conceding a goal per game at home or he’d be further up the list.
- Billing – BOU – $3.6k
Three BOU players in a row? I don’t like much value and assuming he starts, he has the most upside. I would say James McArthur if he were this price but he’s $4.5k!
- Man City Left Back – MCI – ?
Just play whoever starts. Sterling always cuts in creating a giant lane for the LB to run into. I’ll take that.
- Rico – BOU – $5.7k
Priced up but tough selections for this small slate. Still managed 10 crosses with Fraser in the lineup. Good to go.
- Van Aanholt – CP – $4.7k
BOU away tends to produce some open games. PVAA will go forward with that left foot of his and whip balls in the box.
^^ that is basically the player pool.
BUR FBs are priced down but likely won’t get forward much.
Ake then Tarkowski for CB goals.
- Ederson – MCI – $5.9k
- Guiata – CP – $5.1k
- Pope – BUR – $3.6k
Remind me never to play Ramsdale again.