Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Tuesday’s two-match slate!!
Just a wee little two game slate on Wednesday to work us towards the weekend. We have Spurs and Liverpool leading the line as we get a slate with two pretty heavy favorites, one at home and the other away.
On Tuesday we had some interesting discussions about how to build a cash lineup vs a GPP lineup. Surely this could be a never ending article talking about the nuance involved in successful lineup construction for each type of contest but in the simplest of terms it’s broken down like this:
Cash = don’t stack
GPP = stack
There are exceptions to the rule, of course. If it’s a three game slate and Liverpool are -1000 and the other games are essentially even money then we’ll certainly look to get as much Liverpool as possible.
On a slate like Tuesday where the biggest favorite was under a -150 favorite it’s important to spread out your exposure! Sure, West Brom are booty cheeks and Leeds like to score goals…stack them in GPPs.
If you play the single entry $5 cash double up and stack Leeds AND IT WORKS, you finish near the top and win $5. If you stack Leeds and it doesn’t work you are almost surely going to lose. We are trying to eliminate mistakes and bad plays in cash, spreading our exposure over several teams. There a million ways to get over the cash line but the most common is to avoid disaster.
GPP is a totally different animal. To spread our exposure and win is much harder than grabbing multiple pieces of a team that might go off. Hopefully, that makes sense.
For people who play baseball DFS, it’s much more similar to that than say basketball. In the summertime when it slows down we can do some more discussions around these theories and styles of play if you’d like.
There is also talk of the EPL shutting down for a few weeks as COVID rears it’s ugly head again. If that’s the case, we’ll bump up the discussion.
Alright, to the desert…
-Tottenham -190 2.5 (-110o/-110u)
-Newcastle +875 3 (-125o/+105u)
Spurs title talk, huh? Remember that? To be fair, they looked great to start the league and all of that was done without Gareth Bale. The THEORY was he’d add an extra dimension to this attack to form an indefensible attacking trio. The guy never plays.
Mourinho needs a spark and can’t find one anywhere. Not only that, he’s doing dumb shit like sitting on a 1-0 lead after starting like a ball of fire. I’ve said it a million times: this game has flown by Jose Mourinho.
Can the man get a big result here and there? Sure. For me, it’s all one note. It’s the same team speech every single day. It’s a similar tactic every single game. Essentially if Harry Kane and Son perform Spurs have a good chance. If not, they’re screwed.
Fulham are bad so Spurs will win. -190 is value for the money and we need Spurs shares. How about that breakdown? Particularly away from home they have struggled mightily to score. They did beat Leicester away and only lost 2-0 to City but if this is anything other than a Spurs win I’ll be shocked.
Surely, Liverpool will rotate a touch here. The effort against West Brom was nothing short of pathetic. It stops and starts with the manager. Klopp looked resigned to the fact that his team couldn’t break down a side that had only had a new manager for a matter of hours.
Where was the passion? The fire? The teeth? Fresh legs will go a long way. We could see Minamino and Oxlade-Chamberlain for sure. We’ll likely look at a few others as well.
Newcastle are massive underdogs for a reason. There is a lot more talent in red than the black and white stripes. Newcastle’s position in the table is a touch of fool’s gold perhaps.
They’ve yet to play any of the top six sides in the table away from home. Granted, they’ve played Spurs and City who likely both finish in the top four but AT THE MOMENT, they’ve played the bottom five teams at home and the top six at home, if at all. Look for yourself:
Brighton, Burnley, Fulham and West Brom at home. Everton, United and Chelsea at home. Wins against West Brom (H), Burnley (H), Everton (H), West Ham (A) and Crystal Palace (A) keeps them safe but if they get a run of losses in these away games they’ll really be struggling to stay up.
I really like Liverpool to grab a win here and keep the clean sheet.
Per usual at this time of year, this whole article might be out the window come team news. I do expect some rotation. There are also some positive COVID tests at Fulham so hopefully that game moves forward as planned. All rankings below are assuming the player starts!
- Salah – LIV – $11.5k
He burned everyone last time out but it’s hard to bail on him here. He’s -225 to score any time and still managed three shots against West Brom in what can only be described as a weird game. He’s been in fantastic form and has his eye on the Golden Boot.
- Kane – TOT – $9.6k
Son has the set pieces but Kane has the goal scoring odds and has been involved in seemingly all goal scoring actions this season. He hasn’t scored in 3 matches and the boys will be looking to get him off the mark.
- Mane – LIV – $10.6k
Splitting hairs after Salah between the next three. All three are viable for all formats and will likely decide the slate. His confidence will be high after bagging two in two. He has six shots in his last two and 10 in his last three. Liverpool will want a response after West Brom.
- Heung-Min – TOT – $10.2k
More of a floor than Mane but in a similar range of my projections. He’s just behind Salah in terms of cash options. Lamela could cut into his set piece equity as well.
- Cavaleiro – FUL – $5.9k
He’s now splitting set pieces with Lookman but comes in cheaper than the youngster. Spurs are willing to let their opponents have some possession and he’s in the lower range of playability at the position.
- Bergwijn – TOT – $3.5k
Much better player than fantasy point accumulator. He has been in good positions to capitallize but hasn’t been able to pull the trigger. Let’s just say I’m hoping he doesn’t start so I don’t have to consider this option.
- Lamela – TOT – $3k
We know Bale is out. Moura and Vinicious will likely not be fit. There are only so many people who can fill this role so it might be Lamela time. At min price I’ll have quite a bit of him in all contests. His range of scoring is 2-22. So more GPP than cash if push comes to shove.
- Henderson – LIV – $6.7k
Hendo has added some attacking verve to his game and it’s helping his DFS viability. I likely won’t be in this range in cash at this position but he’s in the pool.
- Ritchie – NEW – $5.1k
Set pieces for under $6k. We’ll need some value and while he’s not cheap, it’s cheaper than he typically is in this role.
- Longstaff – NEW – $3.8k
Could have a nibble at a set piece or two. Could take a shot or two. He’ll get invovled on the defensvie side. A balance option.
- Wijnaldum – LIV – $3.9k
As always, lets see which 3 play in midfield but he was able to push forward more last game and was involved in the attack much more.
- Reed – FUL – $3.3k
There isn’t a straightforward path to hitting value but he seems to get there when he gets a start.
- Robertson – LIV – $7.8k
Yep. I’m paying this in cash. In GPP there is more of a case to find goals but even still, the floor and upside is there to justify the price. One of the better pt/$ options on the slate.
- Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $7.4k
I’m likely starting my cash lineup with these two. A stat line similar to what he just put up against West Brom is right in the range of outcomes.
- Robinson – FUL – $4.6k
The American is making his way into my player pool more than anticipated. He’s consistently getting forward to find space to put crosses in the box. Those crosses are leading to chances which is the key to him hitting value.
- Krafth – NEW – $3.9k
The upside is limited and the matchup is as bad as it gets but I anticipate a back five with Krafth being required to provide the width in the few attacks they do get.
Play who fits!
- Areola – FUL – $3.9k
- Darlow – NEW – $3.7k
- Alisson – LIV – $5.9k
- Lloris – TOT – $5.6k