Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Tuesday’s four-match slate!!
OH NO! We have our first COVID postponement of the year. The City and Everton game was pushed off the Monday slate so we were left with a Showdown slate.
I keep saying it with NFL but we need to enjoy every single slate. The season is on a knife edge but with the vaccine rolling out and getting this far with relatively few issues, we should be heading towards normalcy in 2021.
To the desert…
VEGAS
-Brighton +210 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)
Arsenal +130
Draw +240
-Burnley +140 2 (-120o/EVENu)
Sheffield Utd +220
Draw +215
-Southampton +125 2.5 (-105o/-115u)
West Ham +225
Draw +240
-West Brom +275 3 (-105o/-115u)
Leeds Utd -105
Draw +270
GAME THOUGHTS
BHA/ARS –
What a performance by Arsenal against Chelsea. Arteta played the kids and it paid off. Granted, Saka was crossing a ball and it went in. Another goal was a penalty.
They had only 39% possession and were out shot by Chelsea. It wasn’t a perfect performance but it was damn good and the three points are all that matters. Is it a preview of things to come or a flash in the pan? That’s the big question and we’ll find out the answer straight away against Brighton.
Draws will get a team relegated. I see it far too often, people chatting up a point like they just saved their Premier League lives. True, an UNEXPECTED point certainly helps but you can’t be drawing games you should or need to win. Check this out..
That should be a minimum of eight points. Three home matches against the bottom four and you come out with three points? This is what Brighton are: a middling team who can pop up with a result here and there but are largely average to bad. I liked that Maupay took his goal against West Ham but they looked far too leaky at the back.
BUR/SHU –
Woof. Under? Hilariously low total for a game at this level but the first goal might win it. Sheffield have been shockingly poor. Burnley were on a decent little run of form before the loss to Leeds which wasn’t exactly a poor performance. At home, I back them to push for the win.
SOU/WH –
This game could be fun. On form, this is a game that could and should go under but if they can simply finish their chances, this game will have 4+ goals. That’s a big IF though.
Southampton have just 1 goal from their last 3 and the 0-0 draw to Fulham is a worry but they were without their main man in Danny Ings and the wingers were quite poor. This is a team that could benefit from some rotation and fresh legs, which I expect to see.
West Ham could really use Antonio back. Haller is in a rough run of form. Bowen has been hit or miss. Academy product Ben Johnson was the star of the weekend and of course the big man Soucek luck boxed his goal.
Both teams scoring is how I see this game playing out.
WBA/LEE –
Leeds away typically equates to goals. You’d think they’d have a ball against the bottom of the table. They do, but not necessarily in glorious fashion. They simply take their 3 points and move on.
9 points but two 1-0 wins. Great for their status in the league but is it great for our fantasy hopes? Leeds are second in the table with 227 shots from 15 games. They also come in second for crosses. Even if they do play a low scoring match (not likely) they can produce.
Obviously West Brom have brought in big Sam Allardyce. He pulled off the heist of the century against Liverpool Sunday. This startling:
78% possession!! BUT 2 big chances for each team. Honestly they could have won the damn game. There is nothing sexy about his football but my goodness it can be productive.
I do not think they’ll employ the exact same tactical strategy but you should still expect defensive solidity first and attacking second from West Brom.
SLATE THOUGHTS
With basically 4 pick ‘em type of games it’s logical to diversify your exposure in GPP over multiple lineups. In cash, I’m taretting all floor based players barring funky value opening up.
DFS
FORWARDS
- Aubameyang – ARS – $6.7k
You don’t have to go too far back in the game logs to find him at $11k. He didn’t make it off the bench against Chelsea but he wasn’t needed. He should be fresh at a time when others certainly aren’t. Rust is the worry here.
- Martinelli – ARS – $6.5k
Can I trust a teenager not named Saka in cash? That’s the question because in GPP I’ll be all over him at this price. 4 shots last match and he looked fully recovered from the injury that pulled him out of the Carabao Cup. With no Wililan he should get the start again.
- Rapinha – LEE – $9.7k
West Brom will allow crosses. Rapinha has 13 and 10 in 2 of the last 4 games. Somewhere around that number is realistic in this spot. Pricing is outrageous on this slate but he provides a spend up option with floor and ceiling.
- Wood – BUR – $6.2k
For the money, he’s my favorite goal dependent forward. Sheffield play a slower, physical style of soccer which suits Burnley and especially the towering Chris Wood. GPP only.
- Yarmolenko – WH – $6.3k
He had a good 45 minutes off the bench against Brighton last time out and could be in line for a start. I expect goals from this game and he takes some corner kicks. Before his bad ankle injury last season he was killing it and taking a ton of shots. He hasn’t shown that form yet this season but this could be an open game.
- Bamford – LEE – $9.1k
He’s SO expensive and rarely involved in the play outside of goal chances. West Brom have solidified things at the back a bit. This is a risky play with some upside but short of bagging two goals it’s going to be tough to pay off.
- Grant – WBA – $3.9k
Leeds are prone to coneeding goals on the road and Grant looked quite dangerous in behind the Liverpool back line. He should have more opportunity in this match.
- Pepe – ARS – $6.2k
Can he get away from the young guns? It’s such a quick turnaround but if anyone can make it work, the youngsters can. This is fairly cheap for someone with at least a share of set pieces if he starts. He never finishes the full 90 so he’s rarely a core play for me but in cash and GPP consideration.
- Obafemi – SOU – $3.7k
He was an unused sub in the last match but Shane Long was largely ineffective. Perhaps he’s in for a start which at this price makes him playable.
MIDFIELDERS
- Harrison – LEE – $8k
Typically I’m looking for some sort of set piece share at this price but Harrison’s open play underlying stats are off the charts and this should be a + matchup for his skill set. 7-8 crosses and 2-3 shots is expected.
- Johnson – WH – $3.4k
We have to go back to the well, right? He did manage 5 crosses and 3 interceptions so it wasn’t just the goal that boosted the logs. We can’t expect a goal but there is enough production elsewhere to grab some pieces.
- Ward-Prowse – SOu – $8.6k
The price is too high for his projected production but he does provide a nice floor and will likely take any penalty kicks with no Ings. I expect 8-9 crosses and a few shots.
- Pereira – WBA – $8.4k
This simply feels too expensive for anyone on an Allardyce team. He’s in the pool but I’m waiting to see how he’s used before grabbing a ton of shares.
- Brownhill – BUR – $3.6k
I was tempted to grab some Soucek from WH but he’s a touch expensive so I’ll fill this gap in the rankings with a value option from a home team that is playing the worst team in the league. He’s finished the full 90 in every start. You can do much worse than him as a punt.
- Klich – LEE – $6.4k
He’s moved from cash to GPP with the loss of set pieces but he’ll play in that gap between the defenders and midfield and have opportunities to impact the game. Cheaper than some other LEE options for mini-stacks.
- Smith Rowe – ARS – $4.7k
Apparently I’m stacking Arsenal?? Their pricing is what is providing the value Realistically 1 to 3 pieces is fine. ESR provides a cheaper exposure to the attack. It didn’t show up in the game logs but he was in perfect position for a tap in goal but Bellerin mishit the pass and blew the chance. His proximity to goal alone is worth the price.
- Osbourn – SHU – $4k
When he starts he pays off his price. It’s fairly simple. Cash option for me. Likely not grabbing much in GPP unless it’s paired with someone like McGoldrick who is too expensive on his own.
DEFENDERS
- Taylor – BUR – $4.6k
11 crosses in his last 2 games. Priced under $5k. Home favorite. A lot is adding up here.
- Cresswell – WH – $6.4k
Just too expensive but one of the best floors at the position and you are paying for it. Likely off him unless value opens up elsewhere.
- Dallas – LEE – $6.2k
Where does he line up? If it’s more advanced up the field this price makes sense. If not, it’s tough to justify. His range of score outcomes is more like a buckshot than a sniper.
- Veltman – BHA – $4.3k
Wing back role but he’s seen a quick hook lately. Assuming he gets 60+ minutes he has a decent floor considering this position on the slate.
- White – BHA – $3k
They’ve been moving him around the field to get him a bit further up the field. This is dependent on where he lines up. Literally a flyer…nothign more.
GOALKEEPERS
- Pope – BUR – $4.9k
Sheffield is really struggling to generate and Pope is probably the best actual GK on the slate.
- Johnstone – WBA – $4.2k
Liverpool only generated 2 shots on goal. That’s good and bad for Johnstone. The win equity is quite small here but the price is good.
- Leno – ARS – $5k
Arsenal could be ready to break out or have me completely fooled… This feels expensive for the price but the upside is there.
- McCarthy – SOU – $5.2k
Solid.
GOOD LUCK!
