That is hello in French and I must remind those Marseille scumbags that they ruined our parlay with their tie. Bayern ruined the other even though RB Leipzig murdered their opponent 6-0. LEI put it on BOU (away=duh) and I MISSED a 3rd straight Glenn Murray goal prediction? What can we learn from that? Never trust Glenn Murray. He’ll score 10 goals and on those 10 slates I might be behind the sucker that rosters Glenn Murray every week but in the end you also win money when you fade Glenn Murray!
Outside of that we actually nailed pretty much everything. Vardy got a goal. Maddison had an assist stolen from him but still did well. McNeil scored. Rashford scored. Milivojevic paid off for cash and GPP with his usual PK goal. There was plenty there to make money. Let’s talk a little bit about this week’s schedule.
- Today obviously we are going to touch on the 2 game Tuesday slate.
- Tuesday evening I’ll have an article talking about Wednesday’s 3 game slate.
- Wednesday I’ll have my usual Talking Soccer podcast where we get a first look at the weekend’s games.
- Thursday will be the usual Back of the Net article and Friday we’ll have cheat sheets out around 12 noon.
- Saturday I’ll be in the chat room per usual.
One note: The UK has finally caught up to us Americans with their time change. We’ll be back to 10am EST start times on this Saturday.
Let’s head to the dessert
WAT -150 3 (+105o/-130u)
WOL +290 2.5 (+110o/-130u)
Injuries: WAT – Cleverly 50/50, Success 50/50. FUL – Mawson OUT, Mitrovic 50/50, Bettinelli OUT
Fulham are almost mathematically relegated. Huddersfield was the earliest team in league history to be eliminated. FUL are one bad result away from joining them. I say that to say they NEED a result here. However, away to Watford and considering how bad FUL are means it highly unlikely they do get a point+ here. If Mitrovic misses just cancel the season. It’d be over.
Watford for their credit are competitive in nearly every game. At home especially they are performing well. They are taking 1.64 points per game at home. 1.36 goals for and 1.36 goals against. Fulham? Scoring 0.63 goals for on the road and giving up a staggering 2.5 goals per game.
Decent total in this game so let’s look for goals. United are scoring 1.88 goals per game on the road. Wolves are giving up only 1.27 goals against at home.
Anyone that watched the UTD/WAT game will come away feeling a little shaky about United’s form. Pogba looks distracted. Herrera looks rusty. Rashford looks exhausted. DeGea is looking slightly less than perfect. In saying that, Wolves got beat 2-0 by Burnley. United got the win.
Wolves are unbeaten at home dating all the way back to their loss to Crystal Palace on January 2nd. Wolves against the top 6 at home have 1 win, 1 tie and 2 losses. Not bad record for anyone but Wolves are sittin 6th and had they fared better on the road against the bottom of the table would be battling for top 6 themselves.
UTD have won 8 of their 12 games on the road against teams below them in the table.
This game for me could be a knock down drag out fight. 1-1 or 1-0 wouldn’t suprise me. With juice on the under I won’t be betting that but from a DFS perspective I won’t exactly be going all in here.
Deulofeu – WAT – $6.9k
I loved his production against United and his efforts prior plus his matchup mean this is the top play for me. A goal wouldn’t be surprising. Under $7k is nice.
Deeney – WAT – $5.6k
I mean, we can finally roster Deeney without feeling like a total donk. Yes he’s on PK duty. However, he’s actually got a floor creeping up here. I hate Fulham. The result is WAT exposure.
Babel – FUL – $5.7k
If I’m getting exposure to FUL it’s through Babel. The worrisome part is that he’s finished the full 90 minutes only once in 4 games. Riskyish.
Lukaku – MU – $7.9k
He should be fresh after sitting out this past weekend. I think he’ll start and get plenty of opportunity to cause WOL problems. At least 2 shots on goal in his last 3 games is encouraging. Give me a forward that’s getting chances. GPP only.
Sessegnon – FUL – $4.7k
-1 the last time out hurt. 0.8 and 1.8 the 2 games prior. I don’t get how he isn’t producing more but for the price and filling a forward spot I’m actually considering him in cash if he starts on the front line.
Moutinho – WOL – $6.3k
Set piece taker at home.
Hughes – WAT – $3.8k
Back to the well. Quick turnaround here but he’s so cheap and gets points. It’s just a fact.
Pereira – MU – $3.6k
Wondering if he’ll get a start. Matic has been bad and Herrera is a bit out of form. If he does, I love the spot here.
Jota – WOL – $5.9k
I honestly don’t love this play but the price isn’t horrible and he’s capable.
Janmaat – WAT – $4.6k
I hate Fulham.
Masina/Holebas – WAT – $4.3k/$5.6k
I would actually prefer Masina to start. I do wonder if Holebas has been benched. The combo of quick turnaround and a little extra rest makes me think Holebas gets the nod. A lot of salary but that’s ok on a small slate.
Christie – FUL – $3.6k
Playing a bit further forward now under Parker. 2 crosses last game. Not a ton to love but it’s something.
Young – MU – $5.4k
Just a lack of options at this point. Shaw is fine if you need salary savings.
Foster – WAT – $5.6k
Save upside with W/CS however the logs are trash. Keep that in mind. This seems like a must play spot if Mitrovic misses.
DeGea – MU – $5.3k
Seems like a solid spot. Worried about the upsdie.
Rico – FUL – $4k
Really whoever starts at GK for FUL is a plug in. Just a cheap option.
WAT -1 +110