A bit of a blah week boys, to be honest. Betting is about even, maybe slightly down or up depending on if you tailed every pick or not…
ADDING WOL/CC O2.5 +110 TO THE BETS
CASH CORE: JUMP IN CHAT. NOT DECIDED YET.
BOU – Brooks is back. Not a ton of interest in actually rostering BOU players but I do think they keep it close. Fraser on set pieces at home. Josh King for GPP. Brooks for GPP.
CITY – The Silvas start with KDB. Guessing KDB gets all/most sets. B Silva is interesting at a F position that is very GPP centered. Aguero the GPP option. Does Sterling get the 90? I don't think so. I'm guessing BOU will be very rough with him, which he doesn't love. Zinchenko over Walker if looking to City D.
BHA – Glenn Murray day. I like him in GPP. No Bong 🙁 . Knockaert is where I have interest outside of Murray. Propper popped up with a goal last week. I'm not going there. Jahanbakshs is a cash option. He'll be on sets.
HUD – Bacuna at RB. He's a M but could have upside.
BUR – McNeil starts and he's a good option but expensive. Westwood on sets. Bardsley/Taylor cheap D options. Barnes your GPP flier.
CP – No Townsend! Meyer is cheapish and a decent option. Bats and Zaha strictly GPP. I'm not rostering either on a main lu. Schlupp has been playing well.
United – Rash on the RW. I actually don't mind him for $10k now. Sanchez starts. GPP ONLY!!! Lukaku will be confident and we like UTD to win. Good there. Pogba is a no play for me. Young Cash.
SOU – Betrand has been productive in this formation. JWP as well.
WOL – I'm coming around on Jimenez. I like him more and more and do think WOL score a couple at least. Gibbs-White is cheap and decent but I'm a mark for him. Traore is a GPP flier at the RWB role. don't hate it. Ruddy in goal is good for cash/gpp.
CC – Camarasa starts. Ralls still is viable but not a cash play any longer. Niasse is going to pop up with a goal soon. Could be today.
A bit of a blah week boys, to be honest. Betting is about even, maybe slightly down or up depending on if you tailed every pick or not.
DFS – After winning everything for a week, Tuesday/Wednesday were very hit or miss. It’s time to get back on the winning ways. For those who haven’t checked it out yet, go listen to my first podcast released this morning. The feedback thus far has been great, but if you can think of any additional information you’d like to hear…more of something…less of something, don’t be afraid to let me know.
As for Wednesday, Trent Alexander-Arnold was the key to the slate. Aguero got home with a PK goal. We did nail Ozil, Mkhitaryan (the only ones on him) and a few others, but I didn’t push for TAA enough. For those that rostered him anyways, bravo!! I love that. Make your own decisions and make your stands with your chest. Alright, let’s head to the desert.
*HOME TEAM IN RED
WOL -204 2.5 (-105O/-125U)
MU -188 2.5 (-135O/+105U)
BUR +167 2.5 (+110O/-140U)
BHA -129 2.5 (+130O/-169U)
BOU +800 3.5 (EVENO/-129U)
WH EVEN 2.5 (-109O/-120U)
FORM – LAST 5
WOL – 7th/CC – 18th
- WOLVES COMING OFF A TERRIBLE LOSS TO HUDDERSFIELD. TBH THEY JUST DIDN’T LOOK UP FOR IT. HUD SCORED A LATE WINNER TO BREAK OUR HEARTS.
- ODDLY ENOUGH WOLVES LOST 2-0 TO HUDDERSFIELD AS WELL AT HOME. PRIOR, THEY’D BEEN UNBEATEN FOR 5 GAMES WITH 3 WINS AND 2 DRAWS.
- WOLVES ARE NOTICEABLY BETTER AT HOME.
- Goals For JUMPS TO 1.43/GAME AT HOME.
- PTS UP AS WELL TO 1.5.
- IT’S WEIRD BUT WOLVES HAVE ONLY PICKED UP 1 PT FROM 4 GAMES AGAINST THE BOTTOM 3 TEAMS.
- I WOULDN’T READ TOO MUCH INTO THAT AS AT HOME THEY HAVE 4 WINS, 1 DRAW AND ONLY 2 LOSSES AGAINST BOTTOM HALF TEAMS.
- HERE’S A CRAZY STAT – LOVE THAT – AT HOME, WOLVES HAVE ONLY 4 GOALS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THEIR 14 GAMES.
- THEY ALSO HAVE 9 GOALS IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES.
- LET’S LOOK TO TARGET THOSE WHO WILL GET THE FULL 90 AND DON’T TURN OFF THE TV TOO EARLY.
- CARDIFF ON THE ROAD AREA A SHIT SHOW.
- AGAINST TOP HALF TEAMS THEY HAVE 0 W – 0 D – 6 LOSSES.
- SCORE? 5 GF AND 14 GA
- THEY HAVE WON 2 OF THEIR LAST 4 GAMES ON THE ROAD BUT THEY WERE AGAINST SOUTHAMPTON AND LEICESTER.
- PART OF THEIR PROBLEM IS THEY ARE ONLY SCORING .69 GF WHILE CONCEDING 1.85/GAME.
- THEY’VE CONCEDED 17 OF THEIR 24 TOTAL GOALS ON THE ROAD IN THE SECOND HALF.
- MAYBE EXPECT THIS GAME TO STAY CLOSE EARLY BUT BUST WOLVES’ WAY LATE.
MU – 5th/SOU – 17th
- WHO’S HOTTER THAN Manchester United?
- UNBEATEN IN THE EPL SINCE DEC 22ND.
- 9 WINS AND 2 DRAWS IN THAT TIME WITH 0 LOSSES.
- OLE HAS THESE BOYS BELIEVING AGAIN AND FOR THE YOUNGINS OUT THERE, OLD TRAFFORD USED TO BE A PLACE VISITING TEAMS WERE TERRIFIED OF.
- SOUTHAMPTON ARE A CUTE LITTLE ENGINE THAT COULD BUT I EXPECT UNITED TO TAKE THE 3 POINTS HERE.
- UNITED WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKING FOR ALL 3 POINTS AFTER 2 STRAIGHT DRAWS AT HOME.
- INJURIES ARE AN ISSUE.
- RASHFORD WAS ONLY ABLE TO COME OFF THE BENCH AT CP.
- MARTIAL STILL HURT. LINGARD STILL HURT.
- LUKAKU’S 2 GOALS WILL HELP HIS CONFIDENCE.
- UNITED ARE SCORING NEARLY 2 GOALS AT HOME.
- SOU WHILE SCORING LESS THAN A GOAL ARE CONCEDING NEARLY 2 ON THE ROAD.
- 77% OF UNITED HOME MATCHES HAVE GONE OVER 2.5 GOALS
- UNITED HAVE NOT LOST A MATCH AT HOME TO A TEAM BELOW THEM IN THE TABLE.
- SOUTHAMPTON AGAINST TEAMS IN THE TOP HALF OF THE TABLE HAVE PICKED UP ONLY 1 POINT FROM A POSSIBLE 15, DRAWING CHELSEA.
- INTERESTINGLY, MANCHESTER UNITED HAVE CONCEDED AT LEAST 1 GOAL IN 85% OF THEIR HOME MATCHES.
- REPEAT THAT…
BUR – 15th/CP – 14th
- BURNLEY ARE VERY PRAGMATIC.
- CP ARE PRAGMATIC WITH MORE DYNAMISM IN THE FINAL THIRD WITH ZAHA/BATS/TOWNSEND.
- BURNLEY HAVE REALLY TURNED THINGS AROUND SINCE THE NEW YEAR.
- SINCE DECEMBER 30TH, BURNLEY HAVE WON 5, DRAWN 3 AND LOST ONLY 1.
- TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE, THROUGH THE FIRST 19 GAMES THEY HAVE 2 WINS, 3 TIES AND 10 LOSSES.
- THEY ARE STILL VERY RELIANT ON SET PIECES AND CROSSES WHICH IS A VERY OLD SCHOOL STYLE OF PLAY.
- CRYSTAL PALACE WILL OBVIOUSLY KNOW THIS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
- CP HAVE CONCEDED IN 6 OF THEIR LAST 7 GAMES.
- I DO EXPECT BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN THIS GAME.
- IN SAYING THAT, THIS UNDER IS LOOK TEMPTING BUT THE -140 JUICE ISN’T GREAT.
- BURNLEY HAVE MOSTLY DOMINATED THE LOWER HALF OF THE TABLE, SPECIFICALLY 16-20. THEY’VE PLAYED 9 GAMES AND WON 5 WITH 3 DRAWS AND ONLY 1 LOSS.
- CP IS JUST OUTSIDE OF THAT 1 PLACE IN FRONT OF BURNLEY SO IT’S CERTAINLY IN THE RANGE.
- CP DID WIN THE HOME FIXTURE 2-0 OVER BUR BUT BEFORE THE RESURGENCE.
- BUR HAVE CONCEDED AT LEAST 1 GOAL IN 77% OF THEIR HOME MATCHES.
- CP HAVE SCORED IN 8 STRAIGHT GAMES.
- CP HAVE SCORED IN 88% OF THEIR AWAY GAMES INCLUDING 7 STRAIGHT.
- COULD BE FUN!
BHA – 16TH/HUD – 20TH
- HUD ARE JUST PLAYING FOR FUN AT THIS POINT.
- THEY ARE ALL BUT RELEGATED.
- THE WIN OVER WOLVES WAS CUTE BUT THAT HOME CROWD DRAGGED THEIR TEAM OVER THE FINISH LINE.
- ON THE ROAD IT SHOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY BUT…
- BRIGHTON AREN’T EXACTLY LIGHTING THE WORLD ON FIRE.
- THEIR LAST WIN CAME ON DEC 29TH AND THE LAST ONE BEFORE THAT WAS DEC 4TH.
- ON THE OTHER END THE LAST WIN FOR HUD BESIDES THE WIN ON TUESDAY WAS ON NOV 25TH.
- BOTH TEAMS WILL DESPERATE FOR THE 3 POINTS BUT FOR VERY DIFFERENT REASONS.
- FOR BRIGHTON, THERE IS ABOUT $70M ON THE LINE WHEN TALKING ABOUT STAYING IN THE PREM V BEING RELEGATED TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP.
- I EXPECT FULL SIDES FOR BOTH TEAMS.
- BHA ARE AVERAGING 1.46 PTS/GAME AT HOME V ONLY 0.57 ON THE ROAD.
- HUD ARE AVG 0.46PTS/GAME ON THE ROAD.
- HUD ARE CONCEDING 2.15 GOALS PER GAME ON THE ROAD SO WE EXPECT BHA TO IMPROVE ON THEIR 1.23 GOALS SCORED/GAME AT HOME.
- BHA DID WIN THE AWAY FIXTURE 2-1.
- HUD HAVE FAILED TO SCORE IN THEIR LAST 4 AWAY MATCHES.
BOU – 12TH/MCI – 2ND
- IF I ASKED YOU WHAT POSITION IN THE TABLE BOURNEMOUTH CURRENTLY SIT, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY?
- GO AHEAD. SAY IT OUT LOUD.
- I GUESSED 8TH. I COULD HAVE JUST AS EASILY SAID 15TH.
- THIS TEAM IS SO DIFFERENT ON THE ROAD V. AT HOME.
- THEY CURRENTLY SIT 12TH BY THE WAY.
- AT HOME AGAINST TEAMS OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 5 THEY HAVE 7 WINS, 4 DRAWS AND 0 LOSSES. THAT IS INSANE!!!
- ON THE ROAD THAT DROPS TO 3 WINS, 0 DRAWS, 6 LOSSES.
- GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE.
- BOU ARE AT HOME BUT PLAYING CITY.
- AGAINST TOP 5 TEAMS THEY ARE YET TO TAKE A POINT FROM 8 GAMES. 0 W – 0 D – 8 LOSSES.
- 5 GF AND 28 GA!!!! WOWOWOWOWOW.
- CITY WON THE HOME FIXTURE 3-1.
- THE NUMBERS AREN’T GREAT BUT THEY ARE A BIT BETTER WHEN AT HOME.
- BOU LOST 0-4 TO LIV, 1-2 TO ARS AND 1-2 TO UNITED.
- I DON’T THINK WE NEED TO STACK CITY IN THIS SPOT.
- CITY HAVE SHOWN SOME CHINKS IN THE ARMOR ON THE ROAD.
- THEY LOST TO NEW, LEI AND CHE ON THE ROAD.
- THEY’VE ONLY FAILED TO SCORE AGAINST LIV/CHE ON THE ROAD.
- MCI WIN BUT CLOSE
WH – 10th/NEW – 13TH (12:30PM)
- IF IT SEEMS LIKE WEST HAM HAVE BEEN UP AND DOWN, IT’S BECAUSE THEY HAVE.
- 10TH IN THE TABLE IS ABOUT RIGHT FOR THIS TEAM THAT I PREDICTED DURING PRESEASON WOULD FINISH TOP HALF OF THE TABLE.
- INJURIES HAVE RAVAGED THEM BUT THEY ARE RELATIVELY HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT.
- NEWCASTLE ARE GETTING HOT HOT HOT.
- THE ADDITION OF ALMIRON HAS SPARKED THE NEWCASTLE ATTACK BUT MOST OF THAT SUCCESS HAS COME AT HOME.
- HE’LL LIKELY GET HIS FIRST START ON THE ROAD WHEN THEY TRAVEL TO LONDON.
- WEST HAM SCORING 1.5 GOALS/GAME AT HOME BUT ALSO CONCEDING 1.43.
- THEY ARE PICKING UP 1.5 PTS/GAME AT HOME V ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER 1 ON THE ROAD.
- NEWCASTLE DROP BELOW A GOAL/GAME ON THE ROAD AND HAVEN’T WON A ROAD GAME AGAINST A TEAM RANKED HIGHER THAN 15TH IN THE TABLE.
- AT THE SAME TIME, THEY HAVEN’T LOST ON THE ROAD AGAINST A TEAM OUTSIDE OF THE TOP-6.
- A LOT OF 1-1 AND 0-0 GAMES LITTER THEIR AWAY SCHEDULE.
- HERE’S THE WORRYING TREND FOR NEW ROAD GAMES…THEY HAVEN’T SCORED A GOAL IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES OF ANY OF THEIR ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON.
- THEY’VE ONLY SCORED 2 SECOND HALF GOALS.
- THEY’LL NEED TO DO THEIR DAMAGE EARLY OR HOLD ON FOR DEAR LIFE.
Jimenez – WOL – $8.9k
Still, more GPP for me than cash, but Cardiff have conceded 11 goals in their last five and WOL are at home. The big Mexican bags a goal here.
Almiron – NEW – $5.2k
I think NEW score, and while Alimoron didn’t have a great game last time out, I expect him to start and be buzzing around causing problems.
Rashford – MU – $10k
If he gets the start, I’m certainly fine spending up here. We have to spend somewhere, and I don’t know that I love Aguero for the price.
Lukaku – MU – $8.5k
Don’t want to pay all the way up for Rash? The big man scored two v. Crystal Palace. Good going here in GPPs.
Murray – BHA – $6.1k
Where is my boy Tonka? I think this could finally be the slate where I recommend Glenn freaking Murray. Brighton at home against a terrible Huddersfield team. If not now, when?
DeBruyne – MCI – $8k
I’m still not totally convinced about KDB’s DFS production this year. However, he’s a brilliant player and we probably should grab at least one piece of City.
Milivojevic – CP – $7.7k
Should be more in the 10+ range compared to the 6.5 he put up against United. I think this game could feature 20 free kicks between the two teams.
Moutinho – WOL – $6.8k
He was subbed off after 66 minutes last time out, which is worrying. If you can guarantee me 90 minutes here, he might be the first name on my cash lineup.
Hayden – NEW – $5.9k
I’d love this play if they were at home and on the front foot. On the road, I’m not sure if he’ll be as ambitious. For the price, he’s certainly a decent play.
McArthur – CP – $3.8k
If you listened to the podcast, I spend two minutes discussing this little prick. He’s a total GPP play because he’s as capable of scoring one, as he is scoring a goal and popping over the 10 pt mark. This is a plus matchup, and he could pick up tackles and interceptions as well as a shot or two on goal.
Longstaff – NEW – $3.7k
Boy, did we love the goal last week. It masked an otherwise blah DFS performance. At the price, he really can’t hurt you too bad.
Ralls – CC – $3.6k
This is basically free for a set piece taker.
Young – MU – $5.8k
Great to see him pop up with a goal, but I knew his price would go up for this matchup. He is Ole’s captain and should get the start as well as 90 minutes. Good for cash/GPP in this matchup.
Jonny – WOL – $4.4k
Cheap-ish FB on a massive home favorite.
Bong – BHA – $4.3k
They finally caught on and moved his price up. This is nearing the range where he’s much more risky.
Schar – NEW – $4.3k
How much NEW can we possibly roster?? 20/9/9 pts from his last three is good enough for me. If I can squeeze 2x out of a D spot, I’m taking it.
Valery – SOU – $4.1k
Not loving SOU from a DFS perspective, but this is pretty cheap for him.
Patricio – WOL – $5.7k
Don’t see CC scoring from open play. Always dangerous on set pieces. I worry about the save upside here.
De Gea – MU – $5.6k
Big fav at home. SOU not an offensive juggernaut.
Ryan – BHA – $5.5k
Definitely risk involved with this play, because his logs and team are trash. But it’s Huddersfield…
Boruc – BOU – $3.7k
A wise man (Kevin Adams) once said, "You don’t get points for difficulty in DFS." This might be forcing it, but if you are trying to win a GPP, this is a path to victory. With City ownership, if Boruc goes off, it’s likely that City chalk did not. Shoot yourself up the leaderboard.
Wolves/United parlay +128
BHA to win -129
BOU +1.5 EVEN
Tottenham -109 to win
WH/NEW O2.5 -109